The NBA Finals are wrapping up and the offseason is just around the corner. With the draft next week and free agency a week later, many questions have surfaced as to how the Portland Trail Blazers will navigate the waters. Coming off a surprising playoff season and with plenty of young talent on board, Portland faces a crucial offseason but does not have a pick in the draft a difficult past in free agency.
With a lot of young talent on board, some up in the air, and missing a key veteran or two, GM Neil Olshey needs to make tough decisions on some key contributors as well as which free agents to target this summer. We asked four of our writers to describe what they would do if they were at the controls of the ship, and how the team might look if they were the GM this summer.
Contributors are Casey Mabbott (CM), Bryant Knox (BK), Jared Wright (JW), Garrett Thornton (GT), and Patrick McEachern (PM).
- Say Portland has a Monopoly chance card that reads, “You sign the free agent of your choosing.” If team history, money, and market size are no longer part of the equation, who are you signing?
(CM) If Portland is serious about winning with Damian Lillard, you have to go get Al Horford. More talented players may be out there, but you first have to look at what would make this young team even better without plugging in a me-first superstar who could potentially be a setback in a really good locker room. This team desperately needs a proven and athletic front court player who is also a team player, and based on his time in the NBA, Horford fits that bill.
Often considered injury prone by the casual fan, Horford played 8 seasons in Atlanta averaging 72 starts per season, and only had two years where he played fewer than 60 games. Horford has very respectable career per game averages of 14 points, 53% shooting from the field, 73% from the free throw line, 9 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks, and is capable of defending the opponent’s best big man. He may be 31, but for the next 3-4 years, he could be the missing piece on this team.
(BK) If we’re assuming this chance card has no restrictions, it’s time to start planning the Pioneer Square rally to introduce Kevin Durant to Rip City. It was almost nine years ago to the day when downtown Portland welcomed Greg Oden, and it’s time to make things right by giving the Durantula the treatment most fans now wish he’d gotten in 2007.
If we’re taking a more realistic approach to this topic, we have to toss KD aside. But the realistic targets still include second- and third-tier names such as Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside, Dwight Howard, Luol Deng and others. Consensus, thus far, has been that Horford and the Blazers are a perfect match, and I have to agree. As Bleacher Report’s Ric Bucher and Howard Beck recently discussed, the big man fits both the roster and the culture that Portland has developed over the last year. Guys like Howard and Whiteside have higher upside, but Horford seems like the safer option without the “bust” aspect of a boom-or-bust signing.
(JW) Kevin Durant. Next question.
(GT) Basically this monopoly card gives you the chance to sign Kevin Durant or LeBron James. Durant is set to enter free agency and be the most sought-after free agent this summer. James is likely to opt out of his current contract and use that leverage to get a few things done in Cleveland, and sign another contract worth more money. When you factor in age, and fit on the Blazers, I would sign Durant in this circumstance. This would be a dream come true for the Blazers. They would be able to redeem themselves for drafting Greg Oden instead of Durant, and they would become instant contenders in the West.
(PM) It’s gotta be Kevin Dureant, right? Not only would Durant’s presence make their already excellent offense elite, he would (as much as this pains me to say) potentially make CJ McCollum expendable in the right deal, say for an elite post player like Jahlil Okafor or even (*salivating intensifies*) DeMarcus Cousins.
More importantly, though, having Durant in the fold would make the Blazers a legitimate free agent destination. With Durant, McCollum and Damian Lillard in the fold, the Blazers would have their pick of top flight veteran big men to lock up the defensive side of the ball. It would be the kind of roster where you could convince a Pau Gasol or Joakim Noah to sign up for the mid-level exception, and other ring-chasers to fill out the bench on the cheap. This is how you win rings, and fast.
- Given the choice, would you prefer to keep CJ McCollum on the team, or trade him for a top-5 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft?
(CM) Keep CJ, no question. He was a top-10 shooting guard in his first season as a starter, and can become more efficient on the defensive end given enough time and coaching. You’re not getting Ben Simmons for CJ straight up, and even if you could, you don’t know how he might gel on the court with Damian Lillard, which is a pretty big risk. Keep Portland’s dynamic duo together and keep building around them.
(BK) C.J. McCollum still leaves a bit to be desired on the defensive side of the floor, and he’s never going to have the size of today’s prototypical 2-guard. But if you’re comparing him to any of this year’s top-five picks, there’s really only two players you consider potential replacements: Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons. Neither of those players come risk-free, but both offer incredible upside.
Essentially, it comes down to this: Would you draft McCollum in the top five of this year’s draft? The answer has to be yes considering the relatively weak class coming in. The Lehigh product has done enough to prove his worth in the NBA, and trading him for a project doesn’t make sense.
(JW) The only guy I’d like out of the top five available in this year’s draft class is Brandon Ingram, who I think should go first overall. The Philadelphia 76ers, who own this year’s top overall choice, are reportedly more interested in Ben Simmons because he has a more NBA-ready body…disregarding his non-NBA-ready brain. But that’s a discussion for Sixers fans, not Blazer fans.
Unless it’s for the top overall pick, I wouldn’t move CJ. And if I were the Sixers, I’d rather take my chances on a guy that likely will prove to be better than McCollum rather than trading for him. I actually think Buddy Hield could have a McCollum-like career, given the right team and situation for him.
(GT) CJ McCollum won the Most Improved Player award in the NBA this year. This is not an insignificant award. McCollum scored 20.8 points and dished 4.3 assists per game last season. McCollum is 24 years old, Damian Lillard is 25. General Manager Neil Olshey has said multiple times that he wants to surround Lillard with people on the same career arc, the same age group. That was the theme last summer as Olshey added multiple pieces between 20-25. The Blazers know what they have in McCollum. A guy that can shoot, a guy the can create his own shot, and a guy that has gotten better and better as his role has increased. A lot of people said that Steph Curry and Klay Thompson would never work together, well those doubters have been proved wrong over and over again. Lillard and McCollum is a backcourt that should be kept together and developed. They are lethal, and when they are both shooting well on the same night, not many teams in this league can beat them.
(PM) This one is easy: Keep CJ.
While the projected top two picks, Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, are elite prospects, neither is a LeBron James-level, can’t-miss guy. They both have some question marks that make flipping McCollum for them a risky proposition. And, that’s not even considering the fact that either Philadelphia or the Lakers would ask for more than CJ for either their pick, which makes a deal even more troublesome for the Blazers.
If the offer is anything but the #1 or #2 pick, Neil Olshey should (and almost certainly would) hang up the phone immediately, as the talent in this draft drops off steeply after the top two picks.
- Meyers Leonard, Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside, and Joakim Noah will be free agents this summer. Knowing Portland needs help and more size in the front court, who do you call first?
(CM) Call Horford first. Whiteside has consistency issues on and off the court and Noah has been an injured and inconsistent disaster the last two years. I would like to keep Leonard in Portland, but unlike McCollum, he didn’t seem to benefit from an uptick in minutes and can’t shake his confidence issues. Do what it takes to get Horford who has low enough miles to run with Lillard and McCollum, and enough experience to offer veteran leadership, something this team lacks. Leonard may one day be what Horford is now, but for now, he’s not the guy Portland needs. Bring Leonard in and let him know you’ve liked having him in Portland and would like to continue that next year, but if another team offers him a big deal, you have to thank him for his time here, wish him the very best of luck, and let him walk.
(BK) You have to call Meyers Leonard first to maintain rapport and gauge market interest. Without the cap spike, there’s a chance Portland could retain his services on a reasonable contract because of his injury-riddled season; however, we currently live in a world where bookoo bucks will be flying around and there’s a very good chance the 7’1″ spread-4/5 has priced himself out of Portland.
After Leonard, the call must go to Horford. A max contract (or near it) must be drafted and ready to present at midnight ET when the moratorium ends, as he’s the best player available with a legitimate chance of joining Portland’s roster next season.
(JW) Given that Noah has broken down and that Whiteside is a loose cannon in need of strict veteran structure, I would go after Leonard, mostly by default. By all means, place a call to Horford. Just don’t get your hopes up, Blazermaniacs.
(GT) Assuming that the Blazer brass already has a fairly good idea what dollar amount Leonard will sign for, I would be on the phone with Horford at 12:00 am Eastern Time on July 1st. Horford would be a great fit on this team as he has a very well rounded game and would bring a veteran leadership to this day from Day 1. However, if Horford doesn’t answer at 12:00, I am calling Dwight Howard at 12:01. While a lot of people in Portland, and around the league, would scoff at added an aging diva like Howard, I think Portland could be the perfect spot for him. Selfless leader, check. Player friendly coach, check. Winning culture, check. Count me as one of the Howard-to-Portland committee members.
(PM) Not even close: Hassan Whiteside. The Blazers have a myriad of needs at this stage in their team’s development, but, easily their most glaring is on the defensive end of the court. A truly elite rim protector like Whiteside is the kind of guy that can make up for the defensive shortcomings of Lillard and McCollum, and push the Blazers team defense from middling to solidly above league average. That may seem like no big deal, but, with a couple of elite scoring guards just entering their prime and Terry Stotts on the clipboard, the Blazers will win plenty of games with their offense alone. Adding a competent defense to their already stellar offense will take this team to the next level. Whiteside is the rare player that can single-handedly make an entire defense viable, and he should absolutely be the Blazers #1 (realistic) free agent target.
- If you have to choose between Allen Crabbe and a free agent wing, who do you go after?
(CM) Crabbe is exactly what you drafted, a good shooter who needs work on his all-around game. He may not have the next level stuff Lillard and McCollum have on offense, and may never be a starter, but that doesn’t make him a bad player or a risky signing. If Crabbe is willing to take a reasonable deal, go for it, but if he demands a big contract you have to do what’s best for all involved and let Crabbe test the open market and take a shot at signing versatile albeit inconsistent players like Harrison Barnes and Evan Turner.
(BK) If the debate is Allen Crabbe vs. Kevin Durant or LeBron James, the answer is easy. But assuming we’re talking about free-agent wings who are actually on Portland’s radar, it has to be Crabbe. The 24-year-old has added to the Blazers’ culture and established himself as a legitimate three-and-D threat. As Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale recently wrote, Crabbe could be one of the Association’s surprising max-contract candidates this summer. While it’s possible Portland chooses not to compete in a negotiating battle over the career 7.0-points-per-game player, it’s also possible the team values him for what he brings to the table: solid defense and consistent shooting. Crabbe needs to be a priority, especially considering the chemistry this team needs to retain moving forward.
(JW) Again, Kevin Durant is a given. I would also inquire about restricted free agents Bradley Beal and Harrison Barnes. It’s doubtful Washington lets Beal go, but if Blazers basketball czar Neil Olshey wants to screw with the Warriors, he’ll tender a max offer to Barnes like he did to Enes Kanter last year; Olshey is the sole reason why Oklahoma City is paying a backup center more than $70 million a year.
The difference between Barnes and Kanter is that Barnes’ versatility and youth would make him a perfect fit alongside Damian Lillard, McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu, and the other members of the young core Portland’s assembled. The Blazers can even afford both Barnes and Crabbe, which would be a huge coup.
(GT) In NBA Free Agency, it’s all about the price. I am not a proponent of a “home town” discount. I think that NBA players only have so long to make their money, so they need to sign the big-money contracts while they can. I do think, however, that some players prefer to stay put and simply won’t look into free agency as hard as others. I can see Crabbe feeling comfortable in Portland, being a 6th man of the year candidate for the next few years, and taking a bit less money to stay put. This group of free agent wings doesn’t impress me at all, besides DeMar DeRozan, who is staying put or heading to Los Angeles. Crabbe has an established role and a familiarity in Portland.
(PM) Allen Crabbe is a nice, young offensive player on the upswing of his career that provides the Blazers with consistent outside scoring threat that opens up room for their two star guards to operate, and even shown some flashes of legit defensive prowess at times. That, in and of itself, is a good enough reason to keep Crabbe in the fold going forward.
But, his on-court skills aren’t the biggest reason to pick Crabbe over going after another free agent wing. The biggest reason is his contract, and more specifically, his minimal cap hold and Restricted Free Agent status. To put it simply, the Blazers can use virtually none of their cap space to retain Crabbe’s rights, thus allowing them to spend their money on other, more pressing needs, specifically at the power forward and center positions.
- Noah Vonleh was a disappointment in his first season in Portland, do you want to wait and see what he does next year, or deal him for a project player or draft pick?
(CM) I’m not exactly sure what the issue is/was with Vonleh, he appears to have the talent to play in the NBA but his game is not translating so far in the very small sample size we have to review. You got a 2 for 1 deal to get him and he is under contract, so do all sides a favor and get him more minutes and see what you have. It could be a CJ situation where the player is just not being given the right minutes and will produce if in the right situation, or a different situation entirely.
(BK) Noah Vonleh’s season was underwhelming, but it was underwhelming by choice as far as the Blazers are concerned. Although we can’t say for sure how the young power forward performed within the comfy confines of the practice facility, we can see that he earned the fewest minutes (15.1 per game) of any regular rotation player. To give up on Vonleh at this point in the process is admitting that bringing him in last summer was more about ditching Batum, a presumed max-contract free agent, and less about the potential Vonleh possesses. If the Blazers roster was set for the future, ditching him for a draft pick would be logical. But with so much still up in the air, it only makes sense to allow the Indiana product to develop along with the rest of the team.
(JW) Vonleh is just 20 years old, guys. Chill the eff out. After doubting Meyers Leonard, and crapping on him from the instant I started working for Oregon Sports News, I had to watch him evolve into perhaps the best big man shooter not named Dirk Nowitzki. That crow is still being eaten.
After that, I’m willing to give Noah some more time, regardless of the Blazers’ accelerated development in 2015-16. Other Blazer fans should do the same, les they want to sample some of this tasty crow I’ve been munching on.
(GT) Personally, I don’t think that Vonleh was a disappointment. At times, Vonleh showed signs of brilliance. He played his role well, he gave the team a boost at times, and he showed some improvement. Coming into the season, the team was a rebuilding team that was looking to develop all the young players to be ready to contend in the next few years. From the All-Star break and beyond, it was apparent that the Blazers were much more than a rebuilding team. As the season went on, Vonleh saw his role decrease for a couple reasons. The rotation shrunk as the team approached and entered the playoffs and coach Terry Stotts opted for a smaller lineup that included Maurice Harkless at the Power Forward position instead of Vonleh. I say, stick with Vonleh and see what he can become. He is only 20 years old. The former 9th pick in the 2014 draft still has a lot of room to grow.
(PM) While Vonleh had an up and down first year in Portland (to be kind), he did show some flashes of why the Blazers coveted him. He has the combination of size and athleticism that makes GMs drool, solid (if raw) post moves, a nice looking jumper, and the defensive instincts to be a plus player on that end of the floor someday.
But, more important than anything else is the fact that Vonleh is, after 2 full NBA season, still just 20 years old. He’s less than a year older than projected #1 overall pick Ben Simmons. This is a player with plenty of room to grow. On top of that, he has the perfect complimentary skillset at the power forward position to play next to kind of rim-protecting center the Blazers are likely to target in free agency this offseason. Now is not the time to give up on Vonleh.
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