Last week, I wrote an article where I played matchmaker for Georges St-Pierre as he prepares for his hopeful return to the UFC. I love doing that sort of thing because to be completely honest with you, more often than not, I am dreaming up fights in my head. I think about UFC and Pride legends and how they might do against the young MMA talent of today. I think about lightweight clash after lightweight clash in what many have called the deepest division in the sport. Up until yesterday, I thought I had dreamt up every possible fight for most of my favorite fighters. But on Monday night at 7:54 pm Pacific Standard Time, my mind was split in two when I learned that Rick “The Horror” Story would be fighting Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone at UFC 202.
While dreaming up fights, I never even considered this matchup because quite honestly, I never thought Cerrone would stay at welterweight. When he stepped up and fought Alex Oliveira back in February, I figured he would for sure drop back down to lightweight. Then he took on Patrick Cote earlier this month and showed the world he could do more than just hold his own at welterweight; he could dominate. Now he takes on one of the strongest fighters on the entire UFC roster in Rick Story. It seems that Cerrone is looking to show all the doubters that he is serious about this run at 170 lbs. Here’s the thing: this fight is getting put on a card headlined by Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor so maybe it could be overshadowed just a bit. That won’t matter to those in the know. This fight is your favorite fighters’ main event; it’s the type of fight that hardcore MMA fans crave.
Coming into this fight, Cerrone seemingly has less to lose. He can take a defeat against a fighter the caliber of Story and chalk it up to the weight advantage of his wide framed opponent. However, he also has more to gain. A win over Story silences the critics of Cerrone who point to his first loss against UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos as an inability to defend against high-level wrestlers. Additionally, in his second loss to Rafael dos Anjos, he was overwhelmed by the power of the champion. Defeating Story is sure to ease much of the criticism he’s faced as a result of those losses. But the biggest benefit for Cerrone is a win over the 9th ranked welterweight in the UFC. Seeing as Cerrone is ranked 4th at lightweight and 14th at welterweight, I could see a win over Story launching him into the top five. I know that sounds a little silly, but the UFC rankings are not generally regarded as logical. Cerrone will need to dictate where this fight takes place and be dominant if he hopes to see his name that high up in the rankings.
In the case of Story, this matchup is what some might call a trap fight. Many fight fans will hope that Cerrone brings the brawler out of Story. I will admit, the thought of seeing Cerrone and Story standing in the center of the cage and throwing fists gets me excited. Story’s coaches, on the other hand, are probably hoping for something entirely different. On paper, this fight is a win for Story. He is basically a bigger, stronger version of Rafael dos Anjos and he should be able to out wrestler the former lightweight. As I mentioned before, the power of dos Anjos was also an issue for Cerrone and if he wants to test his chin against Story, I fear it will be a short night for the Cowboy. The trap lies in Cerrone’s ability to make this a kickboxing match. Cerrone has crisp standup and excellent movement that allows him to throw kicks against even the best takedown specialists. Story must avoid getting into a kickboxing match with Cerrone at all costs. Against the fence, in the clinch is likely where Story wants to strike. A win over Cerrone is big for Story only because it’s a name opponent. Aside from that, this is a fight he is supposed to win.
Now I know many of you think Cerrone has the edge in this fight. I won’t try to talk you out of it. I am just as much a Donald Cerrone guy just as I am a Rick Story guy. That being said, if you see a betting line that has Story as an underdog, take that action. Take it all day. I see this fight being dominated by Story. His ability to get a fight against the cage and keep it there secured him a win over another notable kick boxer in one time Strikeforce champion Tarec Saffiedine. I don’t see how Cerrone handles things any differently. I have been wrong in the past and I will certainly be wrong in the future, so please take my prediction with a grain of salt. No matter how this fight plays out, it’s still my main event for UFC 202. I’m just glad I wasn’t in charge because if I were, I would have never even dreamt this fight up.
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