As the second half of the 2016 MLB season gets underway, the looming question throughout the league is which teams should be buyers at the trade deadline and which teams should be sellers. The addition of a second wild card team in recent years and the gradual postponement of the non-waiver deadline (August 1^st this year) make this decision all the more difficult.

To the casual observer it seems obvious that teams like the aging New York Yankees should be preparing for a fire sale with no one left off the table. But the storied franchise with the twenty-seven championships and an unforgiving fan base is likely to stand pat just because they are a .500 team and “only” five and a half games out of the wild card.

The Seattle Mariners find themselves in a very similar boat to the Yankees and will more than likely choose to steer it in the same direction – towards a playoff run – rather than make the difficult decision to stock up a farm system that Bleacher Report ranked 24^th in MLB even AFTER, and largely on the basis of, selecting Kyle Lewis in the first round of this year’s draft.

Who Would the Mariners Sell?

One of the problems the Mariners would face if they did, in fact, decide to sell before the deadline is the dearth of moveable pieces. Who would the Mariners sell?

All the impact players on the roster – Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Felix Hernandez, and Nelson Cruz – are laden with hefty contracts that any trade partner would surely insist the M’s pay a substantial portion of.

Cano still has seven years on his contract at an annual average of $24M. Seager has five years left on his seven year $100M contract. Felix has three years left on his deal at semi-reasonable by today’s starters market ($13M, $17M, and $19M with a $20M team option), but has spent substantial time on the DL after showing signs of decline.  Cruz, of the higher paid stars, makes the most sense to move with just two more years at $15M and $18M respectively. Cruz would make a nice upgrade at DH for most contenders, with the exception of the Boston Red Sox.

Taijuan Walker would likely bring back the highest rated prospects. Maybe Walker to the Texas Rangers for Joey Gallo or Walker to the Chicago Cubs for Kyle Schwarber? But, he would need to make a few solid starts after coming off the DL to draw serious attention down the stretch, time that would essentially lower his value to an acquiring team.

At one point in the off season a few clubs expressed an interest in James Paxton. Saber savvy teams may still have an interest, looking beyond the 3.91 ERA to his 3.54 FIP and 105 ERA+, to see a solid number three or four on a pennant contender.

The rest of the Mariners’ roster is made up of pieces for a contending team – a fourth outfielder or a utility infielder, maybe a bullpen addition – without much promise of high level prospects in return.

Dipoto Stands Pat?

Buying for the Mariners seems unlikely given the lack of depth in the minors and the newness of the ownership group. Would they want to take on payroll right after buying out Nintendo’s majority shares? Plus, it would be a pretty big gamble on the future.

The most likely scenario is that Seattle will stand pat and see if they can’t rebound in the second half. Although FanGraphs puts the Mariners’ chances of making the playoffs at 14.6 percent, stranger things have happened. Three weeks ago, who would have thought the Cleveland Indians would win thirteen straight and take command of the AL central?

At any rate, the summer should be interesting – two political conventions, the Summer Olympics, a looming trade deadline, and the drama of the second half of the baseball season.