Free agency sucks.
I’m not declaring that because the Portland Trail Blazers failed (predictably) to score a free agent at or near the level of their star point guard, Damian Lillard. Nor am I saying that because they didn’t sign a guy that is appreciably better than C.J. McCollum, their high-scoring yet undersized starting shooting guard. I’m not even all that mad about their overpay of Evan Turner, a move that was universally lampooned by the national media, as well as a few of our local guys here.
I’m saying NBA free agency sucks because while I’m a fan of the game of basketball, I’m not a fan of the business of basketball. And the summer months are all business, all the time, baby. Kevin Durant, Dwyane Wade, and others are walking proof of that.
Whatever romantic notions that existed among fans about a superstar staying with one team for their whole careers should be snuffed out right now; for every Tim Duncan or Kobe Bryant (incidentally, two guys who retired after last season), there are ten Kevin Garnetts who are traded away from their incumbent team, or 20 Durants or Wades that choose to walk away completely under their own power.
Lillard can say all he wants to about wanting to stay here right now; he’s young and not yet hardened by years of watching similarly talented players (like Kyrie Irving, who just won a championship) succeed at the highest levels of his sport. Let’s check back when he’s 30, about to sign the last big contract of his career, and the Blazers haven’t delivered a title. Which is a distinct possibility, thanks to Durant joining the Golden State Warriors.
That is a subject for much, much later, though. Lillard is going to be the face of Portland for the rest of this decade and beyond, and General Manager Neil Olshey is going to bend over backwards to keep him happy.
What about next season? Could they replicate their amazing 2015-16 season?
It depends on how the roster’s new additions, Turner and Festus Ezeli, fit into the rotation. It also depends on whether McCollum, Allen Crabbe (brought back on a four-year, $75 million contract, a little more than Turner got), Mason Plumlee, Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard, and even Lillard himself can make the sort of improvement that can keep this team from becoming a Western version of the current Boston Celtics, a good young squad anchored by a star player not good enough to move the needle by himself into contention.
McCollum and Lillard both need to defend better, despite the disadvantages inherent in their size, positions, and the rules against hand checking. McCollum was a sneaky solid defender last season, but his skinny six-foot-four frame makes him an occasional target. Or would, if Lillard didn’t vary between bad and a tire fire on defense. Point guard defense is the hardest thing in the NBA to do; there are men much larger than Lillard, and just as fast, that the likes of Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, and Irving turn into skittering idiots on a nightly basis.
Lillard has mostly held his own when stashed onto a Harrison Barnes-like player, a taller shooter that isn’t much of a threat to do much else with the basketball. Sure, Barnes used his post game to try to bully Lillard, but anyone would have taken a Harrison Barnes post-up from the Warriors last year. It was one of the few things that made playing them somewhat fair, and a big reason why Kevin Durant replacing Barnes is so, so devastating. There’s nowhere for a poor or undersized defender to hide against Golden State.
Crabbe needs to expand his game, and solidify his defensive gains. He has the potential to be the new Wesley Matthews; no doubt Olshey was thinking about that when he matched the Brooklyn Nets’ front-loaded, booby-trapped offer sheet, despite making Crabbe a very wealthy 3-and-D guy and nigh impossible to trade. The thing that kept Matthews from turning into an unplayable specialist like Anthony Morrow or a stale 3-and-D man like Trevor Ariza was a bruising post game that punished opponents for stashing their scrawny point guards on him at the defensive end.
Crabbe is going to have to find his secondary offensive weapon if he wants to be more than a shorter Ariza, and be worth $75 million. Doing many things alright or well or very good is more valuable in today’s NBA than being great at one thing, and terrible at everything else. Specialization is career suicide in pro basketball today.
Which is a nice segue into Evan Turner, and why in the holy blue blarney Olshey decided to hand him $70 million over four years, at an annual rate of about $17.5 million, to do what he did for peanuts in Boston. Turner is an alright defender, nothing special but not a minus on most nights. He can be a secondary ball handler, and can initiate the pick-and-roll or run a quick play in a pinch; think Nicolas Batum while he was here.
Turner can score from the midrange and at the hoop, though not at particularly efficient or prolific rates. He can serve as a release valve, and a way to help the Blazer offense not stall out if there’s only one of Lillard or McCollum on the floor. If there’s any way Portland can ease the playmaking and scoring burden on those two, they need to do it.
It is just so much money for a guy that does nothing really, really well, though. This is a gamble by Olshey that he’s not wasting Paul Allen’s money, a gamble that could generate heat on him if it goes belly-up. I don’t think it does, though.
For one thing, Portland coach Terry Stotts is an expert at revitalizing NBA careers and teaching new skills. It’s very well known that Turner is a horrid three-point shooter; that’s mostly why people in the NBA have crapped on Portland’s management over this contract. As a counter-point, I present to the judge and jury Al-Farouq Aminu’s career 28% 3PT% before arriving in Portland last season…and the 36% 3PT% Aminu had during the regular season in 2015-16.
If Stotts can turn that fugly-ass jumper of Al-Farouq Aminu into an NBA-average three-point percentage, he can help Turner improve his shooting. Lord knows he’ll have his chances to fire away, with all the attention teams will give to the guards. And I do think Turner gets some time alongside Lillard and McCollum, even if he doesn’t start. There’s too much money invested in him to not try it, even if it would generally be a waste of Turner’s utility.
As for the bigs, Plumlee needs to be tougher on the boards, especially of the Blazers go to a four-out lineup with Plumlee in the center, similar to what the Orlando Magic did with prime Dwight Howard in the late ‘00s, or what the Detroit Pistons look to do with Andre Drummond right now. The reason why such a strategy could work with those teams is because Howard and Drummond were/are prodigious rebounders, something Plum is never going to be.
If he can be tougher on the boards, however, the other advantages of Plumlee’s game (speed, passing, athleticism) will get their chances to shine in a free-flowing, small-ball lineup.
Meyers Leonard needs to stay healthy and keep on shooting. He also needs to find a way to leverage his size against smaller defenders, otherwise smart teams will just stash their best offensive player on Leonard and stand with him on the three-point line. Pick-and-pops from the LaMarcus Aldridge Memorial Playbook, or rolls that can showcase Leonard’s own jumping ability and speed (seriously, we might have the most random collection of White Men That CAN Jump in NBA history) in getting to the rim, can help negate this strategy. Make that star player work on defense, and get Meyers’ confidence going.
Festus Ezeli is a stone-handed large man that was used primarily as a defender when the Warriors had his services. Provided his knee issues are behind him (that was why his contract was so small, especially compared to the combined $145 million Portland just spent on two backup wings), he can help provide the kind of backbone Ed Davis did last year. Speaking of Davis, he’s still around. The other bigs don’t have great injury histories, so Ed’s insurance.
Aminu needs to prove that his shooting wasn’t a fluke. If he’s unable to do that, Chief could find himself riding the pine, especially if Crabbe completes his Matthews-like transformation. Learning to dribble a bit wouldn’t hurt either; remember what I said about versatility in today’s NBA.
All this is asking for a great deal, I know, but the Blazers are all young. They’re led by a fiery star player, taught by a patient coach and skilled tactician, and still feel that they have plenty to prove. The Warriors have a stranglehold on the West for the rest of this decade at least, but the spots behind them and the San Antonio Spurs are waiting to be filled.
The Memphis Grizzlies took some giant risks in locking up Mike Conley–who has never been an All-Star or made an All-NBA team, things Lillard’s already done multiple times each–to the largest contract in NBA history, and bringing in Chandler Parsons and shooters to surround him, Marc Gasol, and a dilapidated Zach Randolph. The Los Angeles Clippers still have talented stars. The Utah Jazz are a trendy pick to be a power player this season; ESPN’s Zach Lowe is on record saying Utah will win at least 50 games this season.
The Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, and even the Oklahoma City Thunder (even if/when they trade Westbrook) are likely playoff teams, as well.
Whether the Blazers can compete for a championship in the near future is a moot question; for better and worse, Olshey and Co. have gone all-in on this current crop of youngsters, and they don’t project to improve enough to get to the Warriors’ level. There is still plenty to play for, though.
40 seasons after the franchise’s last NBA title, the Blazers’ expected standards of excellence, on and off the court, still remain. So it was, so it is, so it always will be. The current Trail Blazers will do all they can to meet those standards.
Watching them do so is reward enough for Rip City.
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