Their run of three consecutive NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl appearance fading in the rear-view mirror, San Francisco is back to the drawing board for the second time in as many seasons with many questions, and not enough answers.
For consecutive seasons now, the 49ers have swapped out their head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator. Have they returned to their pre-Harbaugh ways or will the Chip Kelly era wash away the disappointment of the one-season Jim Tomsula era?
The new look (again) 49ers and their 2016 season will reveal the answer.
What Happened Last Year?
2015 Finish: 5-11, 4th in NFC West
Head Coach: Jim Tomsula
Offensive Coordinator: Geep Chryst
Defensive Coordinator: Eric Mangini
Starting Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick
Offense: 31st (29th passing, 21st rushing, 32nd scoring)
Defense: 29th (27th passing, 29th rushing, 18th scoring)
With key members of the coaching staff gone and the franchise looking to rebuild, many veteran players on both sides of the ball opted to sign with other teams and in some cases, retire. By the start of the regular season, 13 players who had started games in a SF uniform in 2014 were no longer on the roster.
With many pundits picking them to stumble out of the gate among the plethora of roster changes, things went extremely well in week one, with an eye-opening 20-3 victory over Minnesota and running back Carlos Hyde going wild for 168 yards on the ground with two rushing touchdowns. The offense wasn’t the only unit clicking that day, as the defense all but shut down the Vikings offense, holding perennial all-pro running back Adrian Peterson to 52 combined yards.
It turned out to be a very early peak for the season, as the 49ers won just four games the rest of the way, posting their worst record in 8 years.
Colin Kaepernick struggled to make plays in Chryst’s offense, going 2-5 with an average of just 200 yards per game with 6 TDs and 5 INTs. Kaepernick was benched in week 8 and placed on IR once it was discovered he needed surgery on his non-throwing shoulder.
Blaine Gabbert did not fare much better at QB, going 3-6 in place of Kaepernick and failing to provide a spark in the offense. Carlos Hyde struggled to play with an injury to his foot, and the running game continued to struggle overall regardless of who ran the ball as the patchwork offensive line (missing two starters from the previous campaign) struggled in pass protection and run blocking.
Defensive coordinator Eric Mangini (who served as the 49ers tight ends coach in 2014 and hadn’t called plays since 2005) blitzed frequently to veil the lack of starting talent on the roster, and as a result the 49ers were routinely burned for big plays (SF gave up 67 plays of 20 yards or more, 13th most in the NFL).
With the team posting just a 5-11 record and finishing in the bottom of the league statistically on both sides of the ball, the front office had seen enough and pulled the plug on Tomsula.
Chip Kelly was hired shortly after as Tomsula’s replacement, and immediately began overhauling the coaching staff, beginning with the firing of several assistant coaches who had served under Tomsula and Harbaugh, including coordinators Chryst and Mangini.
The Aftermath:
Head Coach: Chip Kelly
Offensive Coordinator: Curtis Modkins
Defensive Coordinator: Jim O’Neil
Starting Quarterback: TBD
As much as the 49ers struggled in 2015, their new head coach struggled almost as much in a weaker division, which may not bode well for the San Francisco hopeful looking for a speedy return to winning.
The Eagles were the NFL’s #2 offense in 2013 and #5 in 2014, but NFL defenses appeared to have caught up to Kelly’s scheme, and his #12 offense in 2015 had a lot of trouble moving the ball consistently, while Philadelphia’ 29th ranked defense had major issues slowing down opposing offenses.
Kelly is an advocate for number of plays from scrimmage versus time of possession, and he was 13th in the league in plays from scrimmage in 2013, 1st in 2014, and 2nd in 2015. This tactic can work wonders to overwhelm the opponent and cover up deficiencies, but when the offense is consistently coming off the field due to an inability to sustain drives (Philadelphia recorded the 10th most three-and-outs in the NFL in 2015), it can backfire and send a tired defense back in to the game moments after getting off the field.
With Kelly’s offense becoming predictable and his defense among the league’s worst, as well as growing tension between the players and the coaching staff, he was fired with a 6-9 record 16 weeks in to the 2015 season.
Roster Additions and Subtractions:
Coaching changes aside, San Francisco experienced very little movement in their personnel department. Aging veterans Anquan Boldin and Reggie Bush are unrestricted free agents still looking for an offer, and offensive lineman Alex Boone signed with Minnesota, but the rest of the 2015 roster will be back in action, and it remains to be seen if that is good news or not.
In the draft, the 49ers selected former Oregon standout defensive lineman DeForest Buckner with the #7 overall pick, then traded back in to the first round to select a capable replacement for Boone in Stanford guard Joshua Garnett.
While they didn’t get any much needed skill position players expected to make an immediate impact, Kelly may have learned his lesson that many games are won and lost in the battles between the offensive and defensive lines, and made sure both sides got an influx of talent. Overall the team had a very balanced first draft haul that (including undrafted free agents) got them 12 new players on defense, and 10 new players on offense.
What Can We Expect?
Kaepernick, Hyde, and veteran wideout Torrey Smith should all be perfect fits for Kelly’s offense, which worked wonders for Philadelphia in 2013 and 2014 with arguably less talent at QB and the skill positions. Even if Gabbert winds up as the day one starter, he showed mobility and good decision making late in 2015 while working with limited talent around him. Hyde should be very motivated to just get back on the field after playing behind Frank Gore in 2014 and injuries forcing him to sit out large parts of 2015.
While scoring and stats should inflate in Kelly’s system with an up-tempo offense and an uptick in plays called, even if all three key players on offense buy in to Kelly’s scheme, they may not be able to completely cover up the lack of overall talent and quality depth in the first year. If the offense cannot produce points and earn wins consistently against the best teams in the league, it may put early pressure on Kelly to change his game plan, and he is most likely going to be confronted with similar issues he could not scheme around in Philadelphia.
On defense, NaVorro Bowman is now approaching two full seasons removed from a severe knee injury suffered in the 2013 NFC championship game, and his continued leadership will be vital in returning San Francisco to form when they were consistently a top-5 elite defense in 2011-14. Bowman will need to keep pushing these young players until talented leaders emerge and are capable of consistently wreaking havoc on opposing offenses.
Both sides of the ball need a lot of work just to get back to where they were in Harbaugh’s final season, and it isn’t realistic to expect Kelly to get them back to where Harbaugh had them in 2012 in short order no less, but that might be exactly what the front office and the fans demand to see. There aren’t any “wait and see” periods for NFL coaches anymore. There are the coaches who get the immediate desired results regardless of the circumstances, and then there are the coaches who get fired.
Schedule –
Home:
Los Angeles, Dallas, Arizona, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, New England, New York Jets, Seattle
Away:
Carolina, Seattle, Buffalo, Arizona, Miami, Chicago, Atlanta, Los Angeles
The 49ers’ road to redemption does not come with any weeks off, as their in-division games will be as tough as ever, and they open the 2016 season with the toughest rated schedule of all 32 teams. San Francisco will face six games against playoff teams from a year ago, including last year’s AFC runner-up (New England), the last two teams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (Carolina and Seattle), and last year’s division winner (Arizona).
Their daunting task does not get easier the rest of the way, as they also face another three games against teams that posted winning records in 2015, and two games against a LA franchise hungry to establish itself and star RB Todd Gurley.
With a roster still in flux and another brand new coaching staff, the 49ers will have their big moments here and there, but the schedule and their circumstances absolutely appear to be working against them. A winning season isn’t in the cards just yet and they are undoubtedly going to have their hands full all season long.
Projected finish: 7-9, 4th in NFC West, miss playoffs
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