The path to the big leagues is one of the most difficult journeys, from high school to pros, in any professional sport. Out of all high school seniors playing baseball, about .5 percent of them will be drafted by an MLB team. For NCAA ball players, it’s about 10.5 percent, so think roughly 11 of every 100. Of the players who do make it to the minor leagues, about 10 percent will play at least one major league game.
Some players will retire young from injury. Many will be forced out by the high level of competition. And for those elite few who can not only stick, but advance, they’ll still need to separate themselves from everyone else who’s come just as far. So when we look at the top prospects in any organization, keep in mind not only what they’ve already accomplished, but the daunting tasks in front of them.
I’ve been sort of pouring over different organizational rankings and depth charts since the Seattle Mariners completed a trade with the Chicago Cubs last week, sending Mike Montgomery and Jordan Pries to the Cubbies for Dan Vogelbach and Paul Blackburn. That trade changed the look of the organizational depth a bit, and had me trying to figure out what it all means. Is Jerry Dipoto trying to get deeper at DH? Do we really need another first baseman in Tacoma? After all, D.J. Peterson has been hitting very well since being called up.
Is this all part of some master plan, as many fans have been theorizing on Twitter? Is Adam Lind being traded? Is Peterson? What about Nelson Cruz? That would certainly leave the door open for a DH in Seattle. Certainly there are contenders who would love to pick up Nelson Cruz at the deadline with a fairly friendly contract past this season, but what would the Mariners want in return, and would teams be willing to pay it?
Trade deadline speculation is one of my favorite things. I’ve almost never got it all figured out—but it’s always a thrill just the same—especially when your team is still in it. And Seattle, if only by a thread, is still in the hunt for a teal October.
Whether the team is buying or selling, one thing is for sure. All of the moves that will or won’t happen will be based around the players of the future. And after doing a bit of research and a lot of head-scratching, I’ve come up with five prospects that I really want to see, not only stick around, but excel as Mariners.
- Tyler O’Neill
What has Tyler O’Neill done since being moved up to AA Jackson? Oh, just hit .300 with 18 home runs, 20 doubles and 73 RBIs in 350 at-bats. No Biggie.
O’Neill has been on the radar since having a stellar 2015 season, but even his biggest champions wouldn’t have guessed he’d keep on this pace. Don’t let his stature fool you. At 5’11, O’Neill is every bit of 210 pounds and generates the kind of power with his bat speed that scouts dream about. He plays average defense in the corner outfield and has a good arm. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts, but that’s the biggest knock against him right now. The Mariners have been trying to not rush him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a taste of AAA before the season ends. Maybe even a moment or two with the big club in September, if only to give him a taste.
- Dan Vogelbach – 1B/DH
Dan Vogelbach arrived in Tacoma last week as part of the trade that sent Mike Montgomery and Jordan Pries to the Chicago Cubs. Vogelbach is listed as a first baseman, but at six feet tall and 250lbs, he reportedly does not look at all graceful in the field. In reality, he’s more a designated hitter who could back up first base if he had to. Being sent to the American League may have been the best thing for him, as he’ll likely get a chance to play in Seattle before season’s end.
He’s got a plus hit-tool that has advanced faster than most scouts thought. After advancing to AAA this season, he’s been working counts, using all fields and hitting for more power. He’s young, under team control and might be a serious threat from the left side of the plate for years to come, if the Mariners hold onto him. He’s slashing .319/.425/.556 in AAA this year. We know that Seattle GM, Jerry Dipoto, loves on-base percentage. It’s sort of his thing so far. Putting up a .425 OBP over 313 at-bats is no fluke. Definitely expect to see Vogelbach crammed onto the back of a Mariners jersey by early September.
- Paul Blackburn – RHP
The other player Seattle received in the trade with the cubs, Paul Blackburn, was sent to AA Jackson to continue his path. The right-handed pitcher has a mid-nineties sinker, a good curve and a changeup that’s still improving. Blackburn has shown good control with all three pitches and if he can put on enough muscle to keep the speed of his pitches up, he could be in the Mariners rotation a year from now. At 6’1 and 200 pounds, he has the build to make it as a starting pitcher, but may need to develop a fourth pitch.
- Guillermo Heredia
Heredia officially signed with Seattle in early March of this year after defecting from Cuba and gaining free-agent eligibility. Due to the giant pain in the backside that defecting from Cuba can be, he hadn’t played in a game for two seasons. So while the Mariners were excited by what they saw in a showcase for scouts, no one really knew exactly what we were getting. But he did put up a .285 batting average in Cuba with a .376 OBP.
Heredia started the season in Jackson, but was moved up to AAA Tacoma at the end of June. His combined minor league numbers have been pretty fantastic. You see, most scouts felt that his glove would advance quickly and saw him as a speed and defense guy, but his bat had big question marks. Those questions may have been answered a lot faster than those scouts thought. In 308 at-bats this year, he has 43 walks and 41 strikeouts with a .402 OBP. And his defense has been as good as hoped. Already 25 years old, his path to the big leagues shouldn’t take long. He still needs to develop a little more power to be a heavy threat to major-league pitching, and his base-running skills may not be as advanced as hoped. He’s been thrown out stealing five times in only eight attempts this year. With his pitch recognition, plate discipline and defensive skill set, he could be patrolling center or right for the Mariners later this season.
- Boog Powell
Oh, Boog. Why’d you have to go and get yourself suspended for 80 games for testing positive for PEDs? I hate to say it, but I guess it shouldn’t come as a shock. Powell was suspended for 50 games back in 2014 after testing positive for amphetamines, which is a common performance enhancer. He released a statement after the recent suspension saying he wasn’t sure what caused the bad test result, but it wasn’t done intentionally and he feels terrible. To be quite honest, I don’t really care what he says. We’ll never know what most professional athletes do and don’t put in their bodies to try to make it at the highest level. I’m not saying I condone it; I’m just saying I don’t think it’s worth speculating on. Only Boog knows for sure if he was aware of what he was doing. If he keeps getting caught, he’ll be expelled from baseball and it’ll work itself out.
Before the suspension, Boog was having a decent season. He was hitting .270 with 10 stolen bases a smattering of extra-base hits. What I like about Boog is that he plays all-out defense, can run like the wind and works the strike zone, lengthening at-bats and annoying pitchers. I used to get driven up the wall by players like Daren Erstad and Chone Figgins, (when he was with the Angels and played well). I hated those pesky little slap-hitting speedsters, who would just drive a pitcher crazy fouling off pitch after pitch, until eventually dropping a single over the shortstop’s head. I envision Boog as one of those kinds of players. A scrappy ballplayer who gets on-base a lot and wreaks havoc when he’s on. I’d love those guys on our team. He’s going to have a lot to prove though, and 80 games is a long time off.
With the exception of Boog, who has very little value until he’s served his suspension, these are all players who have enough value to be moved in a deal before we ever see them reach the majors. If Dipoto gets an offer he thinks can send the Mariners to the postseason, I’ll be the first person to cheer. But unless something that can really push Seattle over the hump comes along, I’d be just as happy to see what these guys have in spring training, or sooner. It’s nice to have a GM who doesn’t seem willing to rush players up. Let them earn it. Let them be ready when they arrive. Let them stay with the Mariners organization, but not suffer the same fate as Dustin Ackley.
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