The Portland Timbers had an up-and-down week, starting off with an unfortunate 1-0 loss in MLS league play at Sporting Kansas City, which dropped them to seventh place in the Western Conference and on the outside looking in at the playoff hunt. However, they bounced back in CONCACAF Champions League play, winning 2-1 over CD Dragon of El Salvador on a 90th minute Diego Valeri goal.
Sunday’s loss was particularly painful, as Kansas City is one of the teams just ahead of Portland in the standings and a Portland victory would have seen them leap to fifth place in the west. Portland has now played 23 of their 34 games, and are quickly running out of time if they plan on making a run at repeating as MLS Champions.
Complicating matters even further for Caleb Porter will be Champions League group play. Portland infamously flamed out in the group stage in Portland’s first Champions League appearance back in 2014, and it is a clear goal for the team to advance to the knockout stage this season. However, the three further group stage games are all scheduled mid-week, sandwiched between MLS fixtures. Porter will have to decide whether to play a second-choice squad and risk falling again in group play, or run a number of starters additional minutes late in the season that could impact their ability to chase the MLS playoff position they so badly desire.
So with that in mind, let’s take a look at Portland’s remaining schedule and make some predictions:
August 7 – Sporting Kansas City: While it’s a stretch to call a game “must-win” this early in the season, this comes very close for the Timbers. A home loss to Kansas City would not only be three more dropped points for Portland, but would also send SKC eight points clear of Portland with just ten games left. One of the three most important games left on the schedule, along with Real Salt Lake and Vancouver. Prediction: Portland 2-1.
August 13 – at D.C. United: Road games are always tricky. Road games involving cross-country travel especially so. With that said, D.C. United is not the worst place to travel to right now, as they are currently winless in their last five games. Portland has struggled mightily on the road so far this season, so this would be an excellent opportunity to pick up three huge road points. Prediction: 1-1 Draw.
August 21 – at Seattle Sounders: This is the first of back-to-back games against the hated rivals from just up I-5. The Sounders have had an absolutely miserable season thus far, capped by the recent firing of Sigi Schmidt, the only coach Seattle had ever had in MLS. With that said, reinforcements arrived in the form of Uruguayan international Nicolas Lodiero, who they hope can play a Valeri-like role in a new and improved attack. While Seattle is probably out of the playoff conversation, they would love nothing more than to spoil Portland’s season. Prediction: Seattle 3-2.
August 28 – Seattle Sounders: Seattle makes the return trip to Portland the following week. The home team has won each of the past four meetings between the two clubs, a streak Portland will hope to continue here. Prediction: Portland 3-1.
September 3 – at FC Dallas: After the emotions of back-to-back games against Seattle, Portland must then travel to the top team in MLS in the Texas heat. FC Dallas has been on a tear lately, losing only one out of their previous nine games. They also have yet to lose at home, with nine wins and three draws. Portland getting any kind of result here would be a huge victory. Prediction: Dallas 2-0.
September 10 – Real Salt Lake: The Great Wall of Rimando returns to Portland, where he has broken Timbers’ hearts time and again. This is another absolutely critical game for Portland, as RSL is another club that Portland will be fighting with for playoff positioning down the stretch. A home draw would not be ideal, but a loss would be absolutely crushing. Prediction: 1-1 Draw.
September 17 – Philadelphia Union: After a mid-week Champions League game, Portland will host Philadelphia and recent signing United States National Team midfielder Alejandro Bedoya. Eastern Conference teams traveling to Providence Park have not had much success in recent seasons, but the additional fixture could make this trickier than normal. Prediction: Portland 2-0.
September 24 – at Houston Dynamo: Another road game, but this time against Western Conference cellar-dwellers Houston. While a road game at Houston is often punishing in weather alone, Portland was fortunate here: it’s a late September game, and scheduled to begin late evening so heat should not be as big an issue. Portland cannot let their road struggles creep up again when points and playoff positioning will be at a premium. Prediction: Portland 1-0.
October 1 – at Colorado Rapids: The second home-and-home match up for Portland in the stretch run comes against the surprise team of 2016 in Colorado. Like Dallas, Colorado has ridden strong home results and acceptable away performances to a second-place position in the West. Whether they have the talent to compete for an MLS Cup is up for debate, but they will almost certainly make the playoffs and will provide a stiff test for Portland as they come down the stretch. Portland has to come out of these two with at least three points. Prediction: 1-1 Draw.
October 16 – Colorado Rapids: Colorado has been much more susceptible on the road, and Portland has been excellent at home. Portland has to take advantage here and get the full three points. Prediction: Portland 3-1.
October 23 – at Vancouver: It’s very possible, even likely, that this game will decide the playoff fate for at least one of these two teams. Portland and Vancouver are currently separated by a single point in the standings, and only San Jose behind them has a realistic chance to jump into the playoff conversation. Portland also has the additional burden of the mid-week Champions League game. This game could also decide the Cascadia Cup, which Portland has not won since 2012. While a road game to finish the season is not ideal, Portland has traditionally done very well in Vancouver, including winning there last season to eliminate Vancouver from the MLS playoffs. I think they do it again here. Prediction: Portland 1-0.
Those results get Portland to 50 points, and probably to one of the final MLS playoff positions. Portland has certainly made life difficult on themselves at times this season, but the key players are reasonably healthy and primed for a run down the stretch. But even one or two dropped games where they shouldn’t could mean the difference between the playoffs and an early vacation for the Timbers.
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