The Patriots opened as 3.5-point favorites as they travel to Seattle in Week 6.
While the Pats are favored, there are tons of reasons for concern. The Seahawks play extremely well at home. Seattle's defense is well above average against both the run and the pass, and their ground game is solid. Their passing game isn't elite, but it's good enough to occasionally move the sticks. You could make a pretty strong argument that the Seahawks are the best team the Pats have faced outside of Baltimore. If Russell Wilson played like a quarterback who came from the SEC instead of the Big 10, Seattle would have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.
Seattle's D deserves plenty of respect, but I'm not sure if they're built to shut down an offense like New England's. One of the biggest strengths of their defense is elite play from a pair of big, physical corners, but the Pats usually manage to move players around and identify mismatches to create opportunities. And if there is a weak spot in the Seahawks defense, it's probably the linebackers. Ya know, the guys who will be responsible for taking away Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez (assuming he plays).
This week's line has been the toughest number to nail down out of New England's six contests. Conventional wisdom suggests taking the home underdog, but I am neither conventional nor wise. I'm taking the Pats to win and cover.
Other Lines I Like
Bucs (-3) vs. Chiefs
Brady Quinn. On the road. Against a team that's good against the run. And coming off a bye. And following the kind of last-second loss that really tends to piss a team off. By the third quarter, the fans will be wishing they still had Tyler Thigpen.
Rams (+3.5) @ Dolphins
I'll take every chance I get to bet against Miami AND get points. That just feels right. Fresh off a dominating win on Thursday night, the Rams also get extra time to prepare to take on Ryan Tannehill. On a related note, I'd like some extra time to prepare to take on Ryan Tannehill's wife. If you know what I mean.
2012 Record ATS 13-6
Record ATS since 2010 84-72-4
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