The Patriots opened as 7.5-point favorites as they visit the Houston Texans in Week 13.
As I was watching the first half of the Denver game, a little voice inside of me said “well, our boys are getting their asses kicked, but at least you picked it right against the spread.” Then that little voice said “wait a minute, Jason. We know damn well that the universe won’t allow you to have a perfect week picking games against the spread. I don’t know how, but they’re going to win this fucking thing.” (on a side note, I should probably talk to somebody about all of these strange voices inside my head) The Pats got the memo.
For the record, when it comes time to wager on playoff games, I will accept bribes to bet on the other team.
As bad as Denver had to be feeling on Monday morning, the Texans somehow felt worse after losing to the hapless Jags. The Texans were never going to look like a playoff team after falling so far behind in the win column this year, but to fall flat against one of the league’s worst teams at home? Only mustering 218 yards of offense against a generous D? Either the team has totally quit, or opposing defensive coordinators have exposed every conceivable flaw in Case Keenum’s game. Either way, it’s a troubling problem to have.
New England is still beat up right now, and the Texans typically run the ball well. The Pats have been vulnerable against the run in recent weeks. Houston also still has a solid pass-rushing unit, so they could make things difficult for Brady. And covering more than a TD on the road is rarely an easy task. This also has all of the makings of a win-ugly-and-get-home-quick game for the Pats after a brutal pair of primetime matchups. Even given these factors, it is hard to envision a way that the Texans put a big number up on the scoreboard. And if they give Tom Brady and a healthy complement of weapons a short field too often? Fireworks.
Give me the Pats and lay the points.
Other Lines I Like
Cardinals (+3) @ Eagles
This spread is a fantasy football special – two decent teams, but one has a bunch of fantasy lineup starters against a team full of players you wouldn’t start on a bet (except for Fitz, naturally). In those cases, I always take the team that doesn’t have the fantasy star power, because the public will inevitably go the other way.
Steelers (+3) @ Ravens
Fun fact: the +3 in this line is actually the over/under on number of players who will be murdered in-game. Yeah, it’s a bit of a heated rivalry. Since Ray Lewis has retired and Ben hasn’t raped anybody recently (that we know of), I’m leaning toward taking the points.
2013 Record ATS: 16-18-2
Record ATS since 2010: 123-115-4
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