The regular season finally gets underway for the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon against the Miami Dolphins (1:00 PM ET, CBS). After the news that Tom Brady missed practice on Thursday due to a calf injury, Brady was back at practice Friday to ease all of the worries for Patriots’ fans. The only injured player of any note is tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is expected to be back in the lineup after missing the last five games of 2013 due to a knee injury. New England’s season will begin down in Miami, a place where the franchise has struggled (Brady is 6-6 in Miami) and a team looking to make a statement after a rough end to their 2013 season.
It was a rough end for Joe Philbin’s team a season ago, when they lost their final two games by a combined score of 39-7 when they had a shot at the playoffs. The Miami Dolphins were active in free agency, signing Knowshon Moreno to be one of their running backs to pair with Lamar Miller. Plus, the team changed up their offensive line with the signing of left tackle Branden Albert and the drafting of Ja’Waun James in the first round after the controversy that surrounded it in the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin issue a season ago.
This could be a make-or-break season for fourth year quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who now has a new offensive coordinator in former Eagles’ quarterback coach Bill Lazor. Keep in mind, the Dolphins did beat New England at home last year and led 17-3 in the third quarter in their other meeting up in Foxboro.
Here are my three keys to the season opener between the Patriots and Dolphins:
1. Vaulting Up Vernon: With the trading away of Logan Mankins, the Patriots’ offensive line is going to get a major test against a Dolphins’ defensive line that is the strength of their defense. We all know about Cameron Wake and the impact he could have against the front four of the Patriots (8.5 sacks last season, 1 sack in 2 games last year). But, Olivier Vernon made the most last season with 11.5 of the team’s 42 sacks in 14 games a season ago. As he enters his third year in the league, after an eight-sack improvement from his 2012 season, how high could Vernon’s ceiling be as a pass rusher? The Dolphins only sacked Brady four times in the two meetings a season ago, but they will need more of the three-sack performance they had in Foxboro in a 27-17 loss on October 27. This is one of those games that if the Patriots allow Brady to get pressured throughout the game, you will have people second-guessing trading their best offensive lineman away two weeks before the season ended.
2. Patriots Getting To Know Knowshon: As I mentioned earlier in the preview, the Dolphins picked up Knowshon Moreno in the offseason to help Lamar Miller, who averaged four yards per carry a season ago. Moreno had a big game in the team’s third preseason game vs. the Dallas Cowboys, carrying the ball ten times for 64 yards. Against a Patriots’ run defense that dealt with numerous injuries last season to Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo, Moreno ran for 224 yards against the Patriots when he was with the Broncos last season on November 24. To take pressure off of Tannehill,, the Dolphins need a solid 1-2 combo in the backfield and to find the end zone. While Miller averaged 75 yards rushing in two games vs. the Patriots, he did not record a touchdown and hasn’t had a rushing touchdown since Week 4 last year against the Saints.
As for the Patriots’ rushing attack, it will be interesting to see how long Bill Belichick will stick with Stevan Ridley if his fumbling issues occurs. Shane Vereen is still a weapon in the passing game, but could he get the bulk of the carries? While Ridley had more carries than Vereen in the third preseason game, the fourth year running back from Cal had five catches for 57 yards and a touchdown. However, the Dolphins held Vereen to just 21 total yards (13 rushing, 8 receiving) in his only game against them last season.
3. The “Hart” Of The Receiving Corps: For the Patriots’ new revamped defense, all eyes will be on Revis Island as new cornerback Darrelle Revis is expected to be covering Mike Wallace, who is looking for a bounceback season in his second year in South Beach. While Charles Clay has become Tannehill’s security option at tight end, the Patriots will need to turn their attention to Brian Hartline. The sixth year receiver out of Ohio State had nine catches for 107 yards in two meetings against New England last season. Hartline was one of those players who struggled in the last two games of the season, getting only four catches on 15 targets. With no Brandon Browner due to suspension, expect Alfonzo Dennard to be the one covering Hartline.
PREDICTION
The Patriots have won ten straight season openers, but this is going to be a tough game for this team against a division rival in the heat and humidity of Miami. As for Brady, keep in mind that the Dolphins had an interception of Brady in both meetings that season. Tannehill had 312 yards and three touchdowns in the 24-20 win over the Patriots back in December, but I think New England’s defense can generate pressure with Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich leading the way for a unit that had ten sacks of Tannehill in two games last year.
Plus, the Patriots have too many weapons on offense with the return of Gronkowski, a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. When you take into account a healthy Vereen, a healthy Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and a new red zone target in Brandon Lafelll among others, this is a unit that will once again be one of the better offenses in the league. It comes down to the 4th quarter, but I think the Patriots squeak out a close win and get their 2014 campaign off to a good start. Look for one mistake by Tannehill as New England wins by a field goal.
PATRIOTS 23 DOLPHINS 20
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