Last Sunday, the New England Patriots (2-1) won a football game that a lot of people expected to be a blowout, but ended up being a game that the team barely hung on to win. In a 16-9 win over the Oakland Raiders, the Patriots’ defense was able to get a big Vince Wilfork interception on Derek Carr during the final drive of the game. This extends the streak for the defense to seven consecutive quarters without allowing a touchdown.
While the defense has been great, the offense continued to struggle. Against an Oakland defense that gave up 200 yards per game in the first two games, New England only had 74 combined rushing yards for Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen on 26 carries. Tom Brady did have a touchdown pass to Rob Gronkowski in the second quarter, but only managed to throw for 234 yards and was sacked two times. The key stat for the Patriots that might start some progression for the offense is that they were 9-for-18 on third down, which at least allowed them to sustain drive that could give them some points. Now, the Patriots head back on the road for a Monday night game (8:30 PM ET, ESPN) in a loud environment known as Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs (1-2).
In Week 3, the Chiefs were able to get their first win of the season on the road against the Miami Dolphins by a score of 34-15. Even without running back Jamaal Charles, who was out due to a high ankle sprain. Knile Davis got the start for Kansas City and had 32 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Alex Smith (643 yards, 4 TD’s, 3 INT’s on the season) was able to throw three touchdowns, two of them to running back Joe McKnight (who is out for the season due to an Achilles injury).
The defense has nine sacks (fourth in the NFL), but could be without safety Eric Berry, who missed last week’s game with an ankle injury. Kansas City got off to a 9-0 start in 2013 under first-year coach Andy Reid, but limped to the finish and ended up blowing a 28-point lead to the Indianapolis Colts in the Wild Card game. Yes, the Chiefs are 1-2, but they gave Denver all they can handle on the road in Week 2 and they will try to break the Seahawks’ record for loudest stadium crowd on Monday night.
Here are my three keys to Monday night’s Patriots-Chiefs matchup:
1. Houston, the O-Line Has A Problem: The Patriots’ offensive line has still been a major issue for this team and it continues to get worse as Dan Connolly was limited in practice with a foot injury. New England will likely use Bryan Stork, their fourth round in this year’s draft, at center while Connolly can move to guard. That being said, this is a Chiefs’ defense with pass rushers such as Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe that can get after the quarterback and make Tom Brady rush some throws in the pocket.
One of the pass rushers I want to focus on for this point is Justin Houston. The fourth-year linebacker out of Georgia has had double-digit sacks in each of the last two seasons (21 sacks over a 27 game period). This season, Houston has three of the team’s nine sacks, but two of them came during Week 1 in a loss to the Titans. For New England’s short passing game, timing is the key and Houston is one of those guys who can easily disrupt that talent and continue the difficulties for this offensive attack.
2. Kelce Keeps Moving: The Chiefs are not a team that is well-known for their passing game as Alex Smith has averaged around 214 passing yards in each of the first three games despite completing around 63% of his passes. One of Smith’s favorite targets is second-year tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce, a third round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, only played in three games last season, but has had an excellent beginning to 2014. He had his first touchdown of his career against Miami last week and has ten catches in three games.
Due to McKnight’s injury, the only two touchdowns Alex Smith has have been thrown to tight ends (Anthony Fasano has the other one). Kelce is second in receptions behind Donnie Avery (12). Kansas City will also look for more from Dwayne Bowe, who has six catches for 72 yards in two games this year.
3. Berry Banged Up: Kansas City has been one of many teams bitten by the injury bug very early in the season. In the first week of the season, the team lost linebacker Derrick Johnson and former Patriots’ defensive end Mike Devito for the season due to Achilles injuries. Another key defensive injury to keep an eye on for Kansas City is safety Eric Berry. The fifth-year safety had 14 tackles in the opener against Tennessee, but left the Denver game in Week 2 early due to an ankle injury. After not playing against the Dolphins last week, Berry has missed practice all of this week. This would be a big injury for the Chiefs considering Berry was second on the team in tackles a season ago with 73 and was tied for second in interceptions with three.
PREDICTION
If this Chiefs’ crowd is as loud as we expect it to be, this is going to be a difficult test for the Patriots in the first month of the season. Kansas City has the players on defense to get after Brady even with the injuries and the front-seven of New England’s defense could be in for a long night if Charles is able to play in this game along with Knile Davis. So far, these two teams haven’t gained many yards through the air, so look for yards after the catch to be a premium in this one.
However, the one stat for me that tilts the game slightly in the Patriots’ favor is the turnover margin. New England is tied with the Bengals for the best turnover margin in the league at +6. As for the Chiefs, they are tied with the Redskins for the worst in the NFL (-5) and they have not been able to force a turnover this year. Alex Smith has also been sacked 11 times this year, which is second in the NFL behind Chad Henne (16).
While Smith has averaged more yards than Brady this season thru the air, I think the Patriots’ defense is going to be able to force turnovers and win another close, ugly football game to improve the record to 3-1 heading into a huge Sunday night football game against the Bengals next week.
PATRIOTS 21 CHIEFS 16
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