Four weeks ago, it seemed as if the entire world was questioning whether Tom Brady was declining and if the Patriots penchant for trading down in the draft and shopping for value had finally caught up with them. There is a phrase in statistics called “regression towards the mean”. If you happen to take a random sample of something and it happens to be an extreme (let’s say you to picked the ’72 Dolphins randomly from all the seasons any NFL team has every played), chances are that the next sample you pick will be closer to an actual average value (The 8-8 2013 Jets). With the Patriots having had nearly a decade and a half of unparalleled success, statistics would say that it was only a matter of time before New England’s house of cards collapsed and they ended up back in the middle of the NFL pack. Four weeks ago, your average mouth breathing Patriot hater and a good majority of the actual fan base would have agreed.
However, the flaw in that logic is that the Patriots aren’t your average NFL franchise. They are not the mean. They are the outlier. The extreme sample is not the eleven (soon to be twelve) straight seasons of ten or more wins. It is not the eight AFC title game appearances, five Super Bowl appearances, and three championships of the Brady/Belichick era. For the Patriots, the anomaly was losing the season opener to Miami. It was getting shellacked on a nationally televised Monday Night game. The first four games of the 2014 season were a complete departure from everything this franchise has stood for since Tom Brady took the helm. And so like any good statistician would tell you, as the season rolled on, the Patriots returned to their mean.
Tom Brady went 30 for 35 for 354 yard with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. Rob Gronkowski shed defenders like they were children en route to three scores of his own. Rob Ninkovich returned a fumble for a touchdown, setting the stage for a three TD burst in a mere 57 seconds.
No, the onslaught that we witnessed on Sunday afternoon isn’t quite par for the course with the Patriots. The rest of the 2014 slate is unlikely to be that easy. However, what the Patriots have shown is that despite their rough start, they’ve been able to return to the sound, dominating football in all three phases of the game that they are used to playing. They’ve progressed back to the mean.
Risers:
Tom Brady (QB) – The stat line above says it all. A vintage Tom Brady stat stuffer.
Rob Gronkowski (TE) – After a long wait, it’s finally clear that the Gronk is back!
Rob Ninkovich (DE) – Makes the most of a Jay Cutler fumble and takes it to the house.
Darrelle Revis (CB) – He dominated the right side of the field on Sunday and picked up an INT to put a cherry on top of his cake.
Brandon LaFell (WR) – He’s finally found the chemistry with Brady we had all hoped he would find, and he may be replacing Edelman as Brady’s go-to receiver. Gotta love all the YAC.
Jonas Gray (RB) – Stevan Ridley, meet your hard-hitting down-hill-running replacement.
Fallers:
Julian Edelman (WR) – It pains me to do this, but that’s two straight games now with two dropped passes.
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