The New England Patriots (7-2) are coming off of a much needed bye week as they get set to play the final seven games of the 2014 season. Two weeks ago, the Patriots made yet another huge statement in a 43-21 home win over the Denver Broncos. Tom Brady threw for 333 yards and four touchdowns to four different receivers in the victory. The Patriots’ defense also came to the party by intercepting Peyton Manning twice and holding the Broncos to 3-for-11 on third down. Even with the Broncos game now in the rearview mirror, the schedule continues to get tougher for New England as they take on another one of the great quarterbacks in the NFL on Sunday night.
The Indianapolis Colts (6-3) are also coming into this game off of a bye week and have won six of their last seven games since starting the season 0-2. When you talk about Chuck Pagano’s team, it starts and ends with Andrew Luck. The third year quarterback out of Stanford is completing nearly 64 percent of his passes, throwing for 26 touchdowns, including 12 of those coming in the last four games. Indianapolis comes into this game at Lucas Oil Stadium averaging the most points, yards, and passing yards per game.
As far as the defense goes, that has not been a strength for the Colts, especially against the pass. Indy is 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed and has given up 58 combined points in the last two games to the Steelers and Giants. Three weeks ago, they gave up over 500 yards and six touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger. The Colts have played this season without defensive end Robert Mathis, who served a PED suspension and tore his ACL back in September. This is a rematch of last year’s AFC divisional playoffs, which the Patriots won 43-22 and had six rushing touchdowns, but that was in Foxboro.
Here are my three keys to Sunday night’s game in Indianapolis (8:30 PM ET, NBC):
1. Staying At The Hilton: In past years, the best receiver on the field for the Colts in this matchup has been Reggie Wayne. While Wayne does have 42 catches and two touchdowns this season, the best receiver for Indy has been T.Y. Hilton. Hilton has 937 yards on 56 catches and three touchdowns. The one thing Hilton can do is stretch the field and catch the deep ball. He averages nearly 17 yards per reception and has a reception of 30 yards or more in each of his last four games. The one thing Andrew Luck does very well is that he spreads the ball out to all of receivers with six players on the team having 20+ catches on the season.
2. Colts’ Committee On Pass Rush: As I mentioned earlier, the Colts have played all of this season without Robert Mathis. They don’t have that #1 pass rusher like in the past with Mathis and Dwight Freeney, but they have a group of players that have helped them rack up 24 sacks this year (tied for tenth in the league). Indianapolis has six players on their defense with three or more sacks. The leader of that group is second-year defensive end Bjorn Werner. Werner had 2.5 sacks in 13 games last season, but has four sacks this year. Erik Walden and Cory Redding (three sacks apiece) are other names to keep an eye on.
As for the Patriots, Rob Ninkovich has played much better in his last two games in terms of forcing turnovers, such as the interception against Manning. Another player who has helped the Pats’ pass rush is Akeem Ayers. The former Titans’ linebacker has had a sack in each of his last two games. The Pats will have a tough time getting pressure on Luck when you consider that Luck only has been sacked 14 times this year.
3. Banking On Bradshaw: The Colts had a tough time running the football last season against the Patriots, especially in the playoff game. Indy ran for 69 yards with 63 of those coming from Donald Brown. The Colts, this season, are in the top-15 in rush offense, and part of that is because of Ahmad Bradshaw. The former Giants’ running back has been healthy the entire season and has a rushing touchdown in two of his last three games. However, Bradshaw’s main impact is catching the ball out of the backfield. In Pep Hamilton’s system, Bradshaw has six receiving touchdowns this year and has three or more catches in each of his last five games.
As far as the Pats’ run offense goes, Jonas Gray and Shane Vereen had 23 combined carries against the Broncos, but managed just 62 yards. The Colts are top-ten run defense, giving up 98 rushing yards per game, so it won’t be easy to establish balance out of the backfield. New England will need to look to the short passing game with the running backs and then look for Rob Gronkowski over the middle of the field.
PREDICTION
This game is set up to be a high scoring contest when you look at these two teams being two of the top three in scoring in the NFL. The Colts can use any one of their weapons, including their pair of tight ends in Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. With the weapons that both of these teams have on offense, this should be a high scoring game.
The one key stat for me is turnovers. In two career meetings against the Patriots, Andrew Luck has thrown seven interceptions. Luck has also thrown as many interceptions as quarterbacks like Andy Dalton and Derek Carr. Tom Brady only has one interception in his last five games and faces a Colts’ defense that has six interceptions by three different defensive backs (two each) in Vontae Davis, Greg Toler, and Mike Adams. This game will be close, but I like the Patriots to get the win coming off the bye week and have the head-to-head edge on both the Broncos and Colts.
PATRIOTS 34 COLTS 30
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