Preview: Patriots at Packers

The New England Patriots (9-2) were able to get their seventh straight win last Sunday at home against the Detroit Lions by a final score of 34-9. Running back Jonas Gray did not see any snaps on Sunday, but it was LeGarrette Blount who had a good debut for the Pats, rushing the ball 12 times for 72 yards with two touchdowns. While Tom Brady had another 350+ passing yard and two touchdown afternoon, the story of the game was the defense.

With Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner doing a great job covering Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson, the Pats held Detroit to nine points and were able to stop Matthew Stafford as the quarterback only completed 18 of 46 passes during the game. With the exception of 11 penalties in the contest, New England has continued to play the best football in the AFC and they now lead the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills by three games in the division with five to play plus a one-game lead for the top seed in the AFC. This Sunday, at Lambeau Field, the Patriots will get to face an opponent that they could possibly see again if the two teams are able to get to Glendale, Arizona in early February.

Ever since quarterback Aaron Rodgers told the Green Bay Packers’ (8-3) fans to relax, the team has been playing some of the best football in the NFC. Green Bay has won seven of its last eight games and are winners of three straight. It starts and ends with Rodgers, who has thrown for 30 touchdowns to just three interceptions this season. At Lambeau Field, Green Bay’s #12 has 18 touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Packers need to keep winning with the Detroit Lions a 1/2 game behind them for the NFC North lead. Even though Green Bay’s offense is second in the league in points per game, their defense has 15 interceptions this season, which is tied for second in all the NFL. Casey Hayward leads the way for Green Bay with three.

Here are my three keys to Sunday afternoon’s game in Green Bay (4:25 PM ET, CBS):

1. Corn On The Cobb: With Rodgers having a great season, it makes sense that his receivers would have awesome seasons as well. Green Bay has two main targets that the duo of Revis and Browner will have to focus on this weekend. While Jordy Nelson (nine touchdowns) leads the team in catches and yards, Randall Cobb is one of those vertical speed weapons that is tough to stop. Even though the fourth year wide receiver out of Kentucky was held to four catches for 58 yards against the Vikings last week, Cobb has three 100+ yard games in his last five outings and has caught a pass of 20 yards or more in nine of 11 games this year.

When you look at this matchup, points are going to be at a premium in this one. Keep an eye for New England on Julian Edelman in this game. Edelman had 11 catches last week against Detroit and has 25 catches in his last three games. Cobb and Edelman are two players with speed and shiftiness that can move the chains on any short pass.

2. Peppers Shaking QB’s Up: One of the best free agent signings in terms of defense this offseason was the Packers’ signing outside linebacker Julius Peppers. The former Panther and Chicago Bear has 33 tackles, but the stat that stands out about the 13-year veteran is the sacks. Peppers leads the team in sacks with five with 3.5 of those coming in the last five games. Peppers and Clay Matthews (four sacks) have 1/3 of Green Bay’s sack total this season (27). Peppers also has the ability to cause turnovers with two interceptions and two forced fumbles. Both of his interceptions have been taken to the endzone for touchdowns. While Tom Brady has been great for the Patriots, he has thrown four interceptions in his last three games, so this is something to keep an eye on.

As for New England’s defense, the secondary gets all the attention, but the pass rush did get two sacks on Matthew Stafford last week. Bill Belichick seems to have found a good find for that pass rush when the traded for Akeem Ayers. The former Titans’ linebacker has three sacks in four games with New England. His season high in sacks is six back in 2012.

3. Leaving It Up To Lacy: Eddie Lacy’s numbers were not what they were last year when he ran for over 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns. That being said, Lacy is coming into this Sunday’s matchup on a good note. In last week’s game against Minnesota, the second-year running back out of Alabama ran the ball 25 times for 125 yards (both season-highs) and one touchdown. Lacy has had a rushing touchdown in the last two games, but he has also been a third target for Rodgers in the passing game as he has caught a receiving touchdown in each of the last three games.

As for the Patriots, the key for them in this game might be to use more of their balanced attack to keep Rodgers and company off the field. Green Bay has one of the worst rushing defenses in football, giving up about 137 yards per game. Only the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans have allowed more yards. If the trio of Blount, Gray and Shane Vereen are able to eat up yards on first down, it allows New England to extend drives and waste some clock. Green Bay also gives up 4.5 yards per carry on the ground, which is the fourth most in the NFL.

PREDICTION

This is the first time that Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers will face each other and I expect this game to feature a ton of points. Both offenses have seemed to be clicking on all cylinders as of late. While Foxboro seems to be the dominant home field in the AFC, Lambeau Field is the dominant home field in the NFC other than the 12^th man in Seattle. While I expect the Patriots to be able to force turnovers in this game, I think the Packers have the slight edge just because Rodgers has been so dominant at home and Lacy is starting to find his form at the right time on the ground. I am picking Green Bay to win this game and snap the Patriots’ seven game win streak, but keep in mind Pats’ fans, New England has won both games in which I have picked against them this year (Bengals and Broncos games)

PACKERS 38 PATRIOTS 35