Preview: Patriots at Chargers

The New England Patriots’ seven-game win streak came to an end last Sunday at Lambeau Field to the 9-3 Green Bay Packers by a final score of 26-21. While New England didn’t play a horrible game, they were unable to score on their final drive of the game. Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw for 368 yards and two touchdowns in the win, but New England was able to get limited pressure in the form of three sacks on Green Bay’s QB. Tom Brady threw for two touchdowns, both to Brandon LaFell.

Despite the loss, the 9-3 New England Patriots were able to hold the Packers to four field goals inside the red zone. The Patriots are still tied with the Denver Broncos for the best record in the AFC. New England is staying on the road this week as they take on the San Diego Chargers (8-4) in a primetime matchup on NBC.

The Chargers were one of the hottest teams in the NFL to start the season, winning five of their first six games. After losing three in a row, Mike McCoy’s squad is 3-0 since their Week 10 bye week. Last week, San Diego came from ten points down in the final four minutes to defeat the Baltimore Ravens, 34-33, in Baltimore. When you talk Chargers, the conversation begins with quarterback Phillip Rivers. Rivers has 25 touchdowns to ten interceptions on the season. This includes five touchdowns over his last three games, three against Baltimore last week. Historically, the former first round pick out of NC State has thrown 66 touchdowns in December, most of any month in his career to go with a 98.9 QB rating.

San Diego’s defense has also been a key to their season as they are in the top ten in the NFL in yards allowed per game and passing yards allowed. New England hasn’t been to Qualcomm Stadium since 2008, and that was when Matt Cassel was the signal caller for a Bill Belichick team. For the Patriots, these last four games are critical to getting homefield in the playoffs, but can they find a way to win a tough road game on Sunday against a team that is currently the five seed in the playoff picture, but one game behind in the AFC west and one ahead for a playoff spot in general.

Here are my three keys to Sunday night’s game in San Diego (8:30 PM ET, NBC):

1. Don’t Let the Gate Open In the Endzone: While Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are the top quarterback-tight end combination in the NFL, Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates aren’t too far behind. Even at age 34, Gates is showing that he hasn’t lost a step. He is second on the team in catches with 47 and leads all receivers in touchdowns with nine. The touchdown stat is impressive when you consider the tight end hasn’t caught a touchdown since week 8 against the Denver Broncos.

Last week, it was Keenan Allen who had two touchdowns for Rivers. Allen leads the team in catches (73) and receiving yards (762) and has caught three of his four touchdowns in the last two games. Allen, who also had two straight 100+ receiving yard games, will likely be matched up against Darrelle Revis on Sunday.

2. Is The Chargers Pass Rush Legit?: Last week, the Patriots’ offensive line only gave up one sack against the Packers. This Sunday night, they go up against a defense in San Diego that has only 18 sacks on the season (fourth lowest in the NFL). In fact, San Diego’s defense only has one combined sack in their last two games. The player with that lone sack in Week 11 against the Rams is defensive end Corey Liuget. Liuget is the team’s sack leader with 3.5, but he does have two forced fumbles. Clearly, San Diego’s threat on defense is in the secondary with safety Eric Weddle leading the team in tackles and three interceptions from cornerback Brandon Flower (San Diego has six total interceptions.

When you look at the Patriots defensively, they could be getting defensive end Chandler Jones back this week. Jones made the trip to San Diego and is questionable for Sunday night’s game. Jones hasn’t played since the Thursday night game vs. the Jets in Week 7 due to a hip injury. New England needs more consistency from the pass rush and the sign of Jones practicing at least gives them optimism that he could be ready sooner than people thought to be an impact down the stretch.

3. Running It With Ryan: If the Chargers are going to win this football game, they will need to try to minimize the amount of possessions that Brady and the offense get. That comes down to the success of the run game, which is not the Chargers’ strength on offense (28^th in the NFL). However, don’t dismiss Ryan Matthews as an impact runner in this game. The Chargers lost Danny Woodhead early in the season to a broken fibula and while Branden Oliver did well at times, Matthews is their go-to guy. After missing six games this season due to a knee sprain, Matthews has touchdowns in each of the Chargers’ last two games. He hasn’t had more than 16 carries in any of his last three games. The question is will San Diego let that number go to 20 or do they fall behind early and have to rely on Rivers’ arm?

PREDICTION

The Patriots did not travel back to Foxboro after the Packers’ game and practiced all week in San Diego. You have to think it helps New England in this case because they will be used to the time change. We know New England doesn’t usually lose back-to-back games. While I do think Philip Rivers has been a different quarterback under Mike McCoy, I do think the Patriots can make him make mistakes. Rivers has thrown an interception in four of his last five games and has a total of seven INT’s over that span.

I think the Patriots get back to running the football and having a balanced attack in this game. With Aaron Dobson now on injured reserve, could the offense see Tim Wright in more two tight-end sets other than in the red zone. The Patriots’ weapons should be able to have time to get open and Brady will feel more comfortable in the pocket this week. Chargers keep it close, but New England wins on the road.

PATRIOTS 27 CHARGERS 17