The New England Patriots (11-3) began its final three-game divisional stretch last Sunday against the Dolphins with a lackluster start. Even though New England returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown, the offense continued their first half struggles, leading only 14-13 at the half. Then, Brady and the offense kicked it into high gear with 27 unanswered points in the second half (24 in the 3rd).
The win gave the Patriots their sixth straight AFC East title. Tom Brady threw for 286 yards and two touchdowns (one to Rob Gronkowski and one to Julian Edelman). The defense also had a great game against Ryan Tannehill, sacking him four times and intercepting him twice. With two weeks left, the Patriots are a win away from clinching a first-round bye and would earn home field throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win this Sunday coupled by a Broncos’ loss against the Bengals on Monday night. Of course, with all divisional games, you throw records out the window, especially when the Patriots may be facing off against a nemesis for the final time this week.
That nemesis is New York Jets’ head coach Rex Ryan. At 3-11, the Jets didn’t help their chance at a top pick in the 2015 by beating the Tennessee Titans 16-11 last week. It’s been a rough year for Gang Green as Ryan prepares to likely coach the final home game of his Jets’ career. With fans calling for the team to fire general manager John Idzik once the season ends, owner Woody Johnson will have some tough decisions to make.
As far as the team on-the-field, the Jets’ offense only averages about 16 points per game, which is 30th in the NFL. Their quarterback, Geno Smith, has turned it over 14 times in 12 games (12 interceptions, 2 fumbles). Even though the records seem lopsided, New York gave New England all they could handle back on October 16 at Gillette Stadium. Even though the Patriots won the game 27-25, the Jets were able to run for 218 yards on the ground with the combination of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. New York also got Percy Harvin via trade in the middle of the season from the Seahawks to give them an option at wide receiver going forward.
Of course, with a Rex Ryan team, it’s about the defense. The Jets give up close to 26 points per game, but are a top ten defense in terms of yards allowed per game and rushing yards per game. New York also has four players on their defense with four sacks or more this season. That has to be a concern for a Patriots’ offensive line that has struggled to keep pressure away from Brady in the last three games. Will Rex be able to get the Jets one more home win or will New England be one step closer to home field with another win against their AFC East rivals?
Here are my three keys to Sunday’s game at MetLife Stadium (1:00 PM ET, CBS):
1. All Hands On Deck: While the Jets’ offense isn’t exactly the 2007 Patriots in terms of their pass offense, one wide receiver who struggled at the beginning of the season is starting to find his form in December. While Eric Decker is probably not going to have a 1,000 yard season, the former Broncos’ wide receiver has had 13 catches for 189 yards this month against the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings. Decker leads the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns (four). In fact, Decker did a decent job against Darrelle Revis in the first matchup.
On October 16, Decker had four catches for 65 yards against Revis. Of course, New York has to find a way to get touchdowns instead of field goals in this contest. Considering Decker hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 9 against the Chiefs, Revis should be able to have a much better time against him in this matchup. I expect Revis Island to make his presence known against his former team on Sunday.
2. Chandler Crushing QB’s: As I mentioned before, the Patriots’ defense has been getting after quarterbacks the last three weeks with a combined total with 10.5 sacks in the last three games. One of their top defensive players returned last week in defensive end Chandler Jones. Before last week, Jones hadn’t played in a game since the last meeting with the Jets. The third year defensive end had one sack in the Thursday night game vs. New York.
The one thing to like about Jones is that he has six sacks in eight games this season, including 1.5 sacks on Ryan Tannehill last week. The addition of Jones to the front four allows for him to be the pass rusher that Patriots’ fans want to see from this defense. Plus, teams now have to focus on Don’t’a Hightower and Jamie Collins as pass rush options, allowing Jones to have more opportunities at the quarterback.
When you look at the Jets’ pass rush, the two players you have to focus on are Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson. Wilkerson has a chance to play this week after being out since November 24 due to a turf toe injury. As for Richardson, he had a three sack game two weeks ago against the Minnesota Vikings. If the Jets are going to win this game, they will need to have more than the one sack they had in Week 7 from David Harris.
3. Gutting It Out With Geno: One of the reasons why some Jets’ fans wanted to lose the game to the Titans last week was to get another franchise quarterback in either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston. It has been clear that Geno’s first two years have not been successful in New York, including being benched for Michael Vick in the middle of this season. The Jets were meant to be a ground-and-pound team, to the point where Smith only threw the ball 13 times against the Dolphins on December 1.
The aspect of that first meeting between the Jets and Patriots this season that was surprising was that Smith did not turn the football over. He went 20-for-34 for 226 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for 37 yards, his best performance of the season running the ball since the opener against the Raiders. With the former second round pick out of West Virginia having relative confidence against New England his last two games against them, can Smith make one more good impression to the team against a Bill Belichick defense?
PREDICTION
This Patriots-Jets meeting has another unique wrinkle to it in that it could be Rex Ryan’s final home game as Jets’ head coach. Rex is one of those coaches that knows how to put together a good gameplan against New England. I like the combination of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson running the football. Ivory is the primary back, but Johnson can be an X-Factor because we know he is capable of running for 100 yards like he did against Miami.
That being said, New England needs to put together a good 60-minute performance in their final two games to get the offense in a consistent groove for the postseason. New York’s defense can pressure Brady, but they don’t have the defenders in the secondary to derail the Pats’ offense. Keep in mind, the Jets only have five interceptions of opposing quarterbacks this season. I know I said it for the last matchup, but Revis is going to make an impact against his former team in the second time Revis is back at MetLife. Patriots win and secure a first round bye, but it will be closer than people think.
PATRIOTS 30 JETS 20
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