For the fifth consecutive season, the New England Patriots’ first playoff game will be a home divisional playoff game. Out of the three possible opponents New England could have played in this round, they got arguably the toughest opponent, the Baltimore Ravens. For the third time in four years, the Patriots and Ravens will square off in the postseason. However, this time, the winner will only earn a berth in next Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, not the Super Bowl.
Last week, the Ravens defeated their AFC North rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, by a final score of 30-17. Baltimore sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times and held a Steeler team without running back L’Eveon Bell to 68 total rushing yards. The key player behind the Ravens’ offensive success is quarterback Joe Flacco.
Against the Steelers, Flacco went 18-of-29 for 259 yards and two touchdowns. In his last five games, Flacco has posted a quarterback rating of over 100 in each of his last five playoff games. In those five games, he has 13 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. In fact, the last time the Delaware alum threw a INT in a playoff game was in the 4th quarter of the 2011 AFC Championship Game vs. New England.
Of course, when you talk about the Ravens, you have to talk about their defense. Baltimore finished second in the regular season in sacks this season with 49. While there is no Ray Lewis and Ed Reed on this year’s team, there are still some great front seven players such as Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, and Elvis Dumervil that could wreak havoc on a Pats’ offensive line that has been vulnerable to say the least.
Here are my three keys to Saturday night’s game at Foxboro (4:35 PM ET, NBC):
- Forging Ahead With Forsett: Whether it’s been Ray Rice or Bernard Pierce, Baltimore always seems to find a way to put up a good ground attack, similar to what the Patriots have done with running backs. However, Forsett has been one of those players who continues to improve as the season goes on.
The running back who was cut by the Jaguars in March has rushed for 100+ yards in four of his last eight games. He ran for 1,266 yards during the season (5th in the NFL) and was 8th in touchdowns with eight. The interesting stat when you look at Forsett’s season is his season-high for carries this season is 24, but he has not even eclipsed 20 carries in a game over the last five games, including last Saturday.
The question I wonder in this game is will Baltimore look to run the ball and keep Brady on the sidelines or try to rely on the deep ball of Flacco to either Steve Smith Sr. or Torrey Smith.
As far as the Patriots go, they haven’t exactly been a running team, but how will Josh McDaniels look to use the combination of Jonas Gray, Shane Vereen and LeGarrette Blount? New England has only had 48 combined carries in their last two games. While the Patriots would ideally like to have some balance, this is the game where New England could use their short passing game as a proverbial ground game to attempt to open up some holes in the Ravens’ secondary.
- Dumervil Dropping the QB: In his second season with the Baltimore Ravens, 30-year-old pass rusher Elvis Dumervil tied his career-high for sacks in a season with 17 (He had 17 sacks in 2009 with the Denver Broncos). Over his last five games, he has recorded 6.5 sacks, two of them coming in the Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Dumervil and Suggs have combined for 28 sacks this season and we all know the history that Terrell Suggs has with Brady (three sacks in five career meetings).Can this New England offensive line with Dan Connolly and Sebastian Vollmer now back in the fold hold the Ravens’ pass rush back?
As far as the Patriots’ pass rush goes, I’m going to keep an eye on Don’t’a Hightower. Hightower did not play in the season finale against the Bills, but he has a sack in each of his last three games. With Chandler Jones back, New England has more players to go after Flacco and lessen the time he has to step up in the pocket and throw the deep ball. Another player to watch is Akeem Ayers, who has four sacks in nine games with the Patriots.
- Laying It Up For Lafell: While the Ravens have the deep threats in Steve Smith and Torrey Smith (17 combined touchdowns), New England now has one of their own they can go to in the postseason. Brandon LaFell came up just a tad bit short of 1,000 yards receiving this season. However, the veteran wide receiver does have 24 combined receptions in his last five games.
While LaFell hasn’t found the endzone since Week 13 against Green Bay, he is a player that can rack up big chunks of yards. He has over 10 yards per reception in three of his last four games. As I mentioned before, the short passing game is going to be a key in this one for the Patriots. I’m sure Dean Pees, Baltimore’s defensive coordinator, has a scheme in place to limit Rob Gronkowski. While Edelman is good for short yardage, keep an eye on LaFell catching some passes downfield whenever Brady takes a chance deep.
PREDICTION
For the Ravens, this is a game in which they have nothing to lose while New England is trying to avoid losing in their first playoff game at home as well as their third home playoff loss to Baltimore dating back to 2009. These teams are much different than the ones that have met in 2012 and 2013. There is one main difference for the Patriots that I think gives them a slight edge in this game.
This is one of the reasons why the team went and signed Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner in the offseason. Remember in the 2013 AFC Championship when Aqib Talib got injured in the first half. Once that happened, Joe Flacco took advantage of the matchups such as Marquice Cole covering Anquan Boldin. In 2012, it was Julian Edelman playing cornerback on the final drive of the game. Now, New England has a legitimate secondary to combat Flacco’s deep ball.
While the Ravens’ quarterback has proven that he can win the big games on the road, I think New England finds a way late to beat a Ravens’ pass defense that only has 11 interceptions this season and is 23rd against the pass. It’s another Ravens-Patriots classic, but New England squeaks out the win and advances to its fourth straight AFC Championship Game.
PATRIOTS 27 RAVENS 23
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