Shot Analysis: Joe Johnson

Joe Johnson’s deathscare is pretty scary. At least the body that’s attached to that face can shoot.

This is the 2nd in a series I’m doing analyzing shot charts of the more important Nets (sans Brook Lopez because of his limited play last year) and how they fared from the field last season. We continue with one of the newest Nets, Joe Johnson. Deron Williams was analyzed last.

Blah blah blah Iso-Joe, we’ve heard it all. Ever since the trade Joe Johnson this summer, us Nets fans have been hearing all of these writers, bloggers, and analysts talk about how overpaid he is, how much he shoots, how bad he is on defense, how the Hawks never succeeded in the playoffs with him, blah blah blah blah blah. I, personally don’t want to hear it anymore.

Joe is a star shooting guard, undoubtedly one of the best pure shooters in the NBA right now. However, he is still widely labeled as overrated even though he has averaged at least 18 points per game in the last seven seasons of his career.

Interestingly enough, only 4 other NBA players have averaged 18 ppg over that same time-span from the 2005-06 season until last season, 2011-12. (Noted: This list contains only players that QUALIFIED for the scoring championship in each of those seasons by having enough shot attempts. That’s why Dwyane Wade and Paul Pierce aren’t included). Who might those 4 players be? 
None other than Dirk Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony, Lebron, and Kobe. Yep, in the last seven NBA seasons, Joe Johnson is among exclusive company in pure scoring as four of the most-widely offensive-hailed players in the NBA. And are those guys called overrated all the time? Didn’t think so.

The following VORPed chart shows Johnson’s shooting percentages from all around the floor in the 2010-11 season, his second-to-last with Atlanta:

What is clear to see is that Joe was awful from three-point range two seasons ago, not hitting more than 35% of his threes from any spot on the floor. That lack of accuracy led to his worst shooting season from beyond the arc of Joe’s entire career. The 29.7% he posted from three is the lowest mark of his All-Star career and was certainly a scary mark on his season,. That led to some around the league wondering if the then 29-year-old was starting to drift into obscurity, that place where all former franchise swingmen fall after their shots stop falling and their legs give out (see Carter, Vince and McGrady, Tracy).

However, much to the dismay of those cynical commentators and writers, Joe Johnson as we knew him wasn’t going away anytime soon. Even though he may not be as explosive on offense as he was a couple of years ago, the Arkansas native is still a knockdown shooter who scares any defender spineless with his emotionless and deadpan look during games as he drains a game-winning trey-ball in their face.

Interestingly enough, Johnson wasn’t much more effective from the mid-range in 2010-11, not eclipsing 45% at any spot on the floor and shooting a terrible 26.1% from his least-favorite spot on the court, the jumper from the top of the key (this tendency in mirrored in the straight-on three-pointer zone as well).

As we move on to last season, Joe’s last with the Hawks, we notice a multitude of differences in his shooting percentages as well as tendencies and preferences for shot location. First off, Johnson improved on his shooting percentages from all five of the three-point zones from 2010-11 to 2011-12. This was also reflected in his overall increase in three-point shooting of almost 10% from 29.7% to 38.8%, an incredibly substantial margin of difference.

The biggest change in three-point shooting from year-to-year was found at the top-of-the-key zone where Joe improved by nearly 30% and even 25% in the mid-range top-of-the-key from two seasons ago to last season. Another interesting occurrence that’s worth noting is that in mid-range, Johnson improved in shooting from the right side in both zones inside of the key yet worsened in both zones on the left sides.

It’s nearly impossible to attribute these changes from year-to-year for one of the league’s top shooters but maybe the veteran just plays better with less games in a season and less time in between games. In the 2010-11 campaign, Johnson played 72 games with a slash-line of 44.3%/29.7%/80.2% while in the 2011-12 season, he only played 60 games in the truncated year but produced a much more efficient slash-line of 45.4%/38.8%/84.9%.

Hey, maybe some players do actually improve with age. If the last two seasons are any indicator, Joe Johnson could be one of those players. And if he builds on his successful final year with Atlanta in Brooklyn with the Nets, maybe those people saying the new team in New York City can win the Atlantic Division will be validated.

STATISTICAL SUPPORT FOR THIS STORY FROM VORPED.COM