How can anyone know how to predict a 2011 NFL preseason game? With the cancelled offseason and shortened free agency and new veterans not allowed to practice until last Thursday, a Magic 8 Ball gives as valid a projection as anyone.
Fortunately, the sports books come to the rescue. Sports Betting Tweets published its line on Friday’s Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins exhibition game. They installed the defending AFC champion as a mere 1.5 point favorite over the home team and set the over/under at 33 points.
Thirty-three points isn’t so much. Seventeen points by each team can bust that line and, yes, the Redskins can score 17 points in this game. The interesting reading was SBT’s assessment of Washington’s quarterback race.
” It appears as though QB John Beck is going to be the starter this year (oh, really?), which is a huge shock for a team that basically just let QB Donovan McNabb go in a trade to the Minnesota Vikings in the offseason. Beck has generally been backup material in his career, but the problem is that so have Kellen Clemens and Rex Grossman. Neither Ben Chappell nor Marc Verica scare us in the least.
“Clemens and Grossman both have extensive work as preseason quarterbacks and should prove to pay dividends for those making pro football picks on the ‘over’ in this one. We definitely expect to see both openly throwing the ball quite a bit, and we foresee at least two TDs hitting the board for the hosts.”
Two passing touchdowns is something I’d like to see, along with a score or two on the ground.
Here’s what else I am looking for from the ‘Skins.
Offensive line to jell without two blocking tight ends. The interior line was an open door to opposing defenses last season, so the focus is on guards Kory Lichtensteiger and Chris Chester and center Will Montgomery. Left tackleTrent Williams came to camp in better shape and motivated. Right tackle Jammal Brown is in better health and is a believer in the Shanahan plan. They couldn’t do much worse than last year’s group.
The issue is that the 2010 O-line needed extra blocking help. Tight ends Chris Cooley and Fred Davis were kept in to block, Cooley especially, more than was welcomed. Cooley blocking is Cooley wasted as a receiving threat.
I don’t expect to see Cooley much in the line-up. What do the coaches need to see from him, anyway? Mike Sellers is competing for a spot as a tight end and could shine Friday night. Sellers caught seven touchdown passes in the 2005 campaign when Joe Gibbs used him as a red zone threat. He hasn’t been used that way since for reasons that are still mysterious to me.
Sellers is swimming against the Redskins youth movement at age 36. if he is not in Shanahan’s plan, I hope he is released early enough to catch on with another team.
The defensive line is much improved on paper. Their play could be a tad sloppy with only a week of real practice.
How will Mike Shanahan use this game? Most coaches limit likely starters’ exposure to injury by holding them out until the third preseason game. This season, Shanahan might give the veteran free agents more game time now to make up for the lost off-season. High value rookies might see less time for the same reason. The short training camp and no minicamp puts them at greater injury risk than in normal seasons. My over-under for appearances by Redskins draft pick Ryan Kerrigan is three defensive series.
Redskins Hog Heaven is neutral on sports gambling and we are not a betting tout. Don’t risk the rent money on anything we say. Use your own judgement on stuff like that. My lawyer made me say this.
Redskins rep redeemed
I expect Washington’s preseason performance to put to rest the notion by Colin Blowhard and others that the 2011 ‘Skins will be the worst team in football. The pendulum swings wide with Washington. Last year, pundits like ESPN’s John Clayton called Washington division co-favorites with the pairing of McNabb and Shanahan. Now, Cowherd says the ‘Skins will win no more than two games with John Beck at QB.
Your Hog Heaven writers figure Washington for division third or fourth place (official projection to come before game one), but far from the worst in the league. I think this team will be a lot more fun to watch than last year.
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