The first matchup between Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III comes nearly three years after the two quarterbacks were taken with the first and second overall picks in the 2012 NFL Draft.
Both quarterbacks were drafted with the hope that they could revitalize once proud franchises. The Colts were coming off a 2-14 campaign and would start a new era without Peyton Manning. The Redskins had gone 5-11 the previous year for a fourth consecutive last-place finish in the NFC East.
With Luck the franchise quarterback we all imagined and Griffin mired in controversy, what would this week’s game and this season look like if the Colts had drafted RG3 with the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft?
The Indianapolis Colts are 9.5 point favorites at home over the Washington Redskins. The money-line, Indianapolis -485, implies that a bettor would need to have greater than 83 percent confidence in the Colts to win in order to feel comfortable placing a wager.
After 50,000 simulations, with Luck on Washington and Griffin III starting for Indianapolis, the Redskins would be 59 percent likely to win with an average projected score of 32-28.
Andrew Luck is so far ahead of Robert Griffin III at this point in their careers that he would make a heavy underdog the projected favorite on the road.
Over a full season, Luck is even more valuable.
If Luck were the starter all season in Washington, the Redskins would be projected to win the NFC East with a 10-6 record. Indianapolis, with RG3 would finish second in the AFC South behind Houston with a projected 7.5 wins.
Luck would be projected to throw for 4,529 yards, 34 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in Jay Gruden’s offense. RG3, assuming a full healthy season, would be projected to throw for 2,994 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a Colt.
Indianapolis could have drafted Robert Griffin III No. 1 overall in 2012 but instead, the Colts took Andrew Luck. There never really was any doubt that Indy would take Luck with the first pick and two years later there is no doubt the Colts would make the same decision again.
John Ewing is Director of Research and Analytics at predictionmachine.com. This article is also published there. He can be found on Twitter @predictionmachine.
Lest we forget that happy day in April, 2012.
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