Hog Heaven wonders how the odds change for Washington in the Redskins at Giants game based on who starts at quarterback. Paul Bessire of PredictionMaching.com answers.
The Breakdown: Colt McCoy starts for Washington in our projected box score. In this matchup, Robert Griffin III would actually be a slight upgrade given his running prowess and the Giants porous run defense. Either way, we have a light lean on the Redskins to cover the spread and it has everything to do with the terrible Giants’ defense.
Remarkably, the Giants have abysmal defensive numbers despite playing a below average schedule. Against teams outside of the bottom five in the league, the Giants have allowed 26.7 points-per-game and almost exactly 6.5 yards-per-play (the Saints rank last in the league over all games, allowing 6.2 yards-per-play).
Washington certainly has not been much better (hence the strong opinion on the OVER), but the Redskins do rate slightly higher than the Giants defensively and that matters considerably given that this spread suggests that New York is still at least a field goal better than Washington on a neutral field. That’s tough to prove.
Even with a revolving door of quarterbacks, the Redskins yards-per-play margin on the season is almost a full yard (0.7) better than the Giants’. Alfred Morris should be in for a big game as the Redskins prepare to exploit one of the league’s worst defenses on Sunday.
UPDATE: The Redskins expect to start Colt McCoy against the Giants.
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Sports books installed the Redskins as 6.5-point underdogs to the Giants early in the week. Some sites have since narrowed the spread to 3.5 to 4 points.
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