#5 Notre Dame (6-0) v. BYU (4-3)
Notre Dame Stadium – South Bend, Indiana – 3:30 EST on NBC
First Things – What else can a "Trap Game" be called when it's played in late October? A "Game With One Team That REALLY Matters Against One That Doesn't". Nearly a week has passed since Notre Dame's epic win against Stanford and it's still a struggle to put the euphoria of the comeback into words or comprehend what we're seeing from this team. We hadn't won big road games in so long, then Michigan State. We hadn't shut down an elite offensive talent for four quarters in years, then Michigan. We hadn't taken a member of the college football world's elite and run the ball down their throats until they cried "Uncle", then Miami. We hadn't been down late in the 4th quarter against a Top 25 team and come back to win what seemed like a lifetime, then came the treat of Notre Dame-Stanford 2012. For their next trick, Notre Dame will beat a Top 10 team on the road … we hope.
How about the Irish start by taking care of business against another tough opponent whose seen their hopes for 2012 dashed early and often? When previewing this season over the summer, I HATED this game. Our young, inexperienced secondary against what looked, at the time, like the most seasoned passing quarterback the Irish would face before heading to Oklahoma. It looked like a "Trap Game" even if one was projecting the Irish at 4-2 or 3-3. Fast forward and the same young secondary hasn't allowed a passing TD in 35 days and 2011 BYU starting QB Riley Nelson got the hook for throwing his fifth interception in four games. He got the job back due to injury and tossed 3 more picks last week for good measure. The Cougars are in a bit of a tailspin and might be caught looking ahead to a stretch run where they can string together a few wins against Georgia Tech, Idaho, San Jose State & New Mexico and their combined 8-17 record.
So guess what? I still hate this game. Everett Golson is banged up, BYU features a pretty stout front seven of 23-24 year old grown men (that whole Mormon mission thing) and somebody is going to score on ND at some point. I also don't like this game because there is a true litmus test ahead for the offense as they gear up for a game where they might need to outscore somebody. We don't need 42-3 or 54-14, but some sustained drives and 28+ points from the offense would be mighty reassuring.
Getting back to the Stanford game – the goal-line stand in OT is already among my favorite Irish moments ever. Maybe Stanford finishes 8-5 and the Irish finish 9-4, but with all that the game had to offer it was such a fantastical finish to an old school slugfest. Four stops from inside the four in the pouring rain. Every person in the stadium knew a run was coming and the combatants squared off for the final, bruising collisions. Manti Te'o and the players on the field may experience bigger wins at some point, but it's likely they look back and remember that rainy day in South Bend as fondly as any other. It was a Man-Ball Win for the ages. Thanks to Stanford and their re-built program for holding up their end until the final inch.
Every time I find myself talking about the Irish to friends or fellow fans I find myself thinking and saying the same thing: If ND had just one or two losses, this QB shuffle would be the #1 story with a hailstorm of criticism and second guessing. Golson has played like a 1st year starter in a complicated system. These inconsistencies have been accompanied by flashes of brilliance through the air and the ground. These glimpses of greatness are counterbalanced by mistakes unacceptable at any level. As a Golson supporter – it's worth keeping in mind that with the Irish down 7 points against Stanford, Golson's final three 3rd downs featured 3-3 passing for 61 yards and a TD pass to Tyler Eifert that was as pretty and perfect as any you'll see in the college game. Tommy Rees, to his everlasting credit, has been thrown into whatever is hotter than the fire and succeeded at all things asked of him. As pretty as Golson's pass to Eifert was, the reads by Tommy on the game-winning drive were just as spectacular. Formerly known as "Turnover Tommy", the junior has avoided fumbles and interceptions thus far and presents a steadier hand at the helm. When the team is undefeated and a stellar defense rules each Saturday these seem like good problems to have. If & when the Irish finally drop a game, there will be no right answer as to how Brian Kelly should have deployed these men. It's a scary wait and see but hey .. 6 AND 0!
Five Things To Watch
5. QB, QB, QB – Led right into this, but we may find a Miami redux as fans and media alike wait with anxiety over who might take the field for Saturday's first series. All signs point to Golson starting his fifth game and getting his final prep work before another massive, hellahyped showdown with the Sooners. I continue to believe Golson is the offense's best bet to take advantage of defenses down the stretch and in the future but if Rees gets the nod I fully expect a win.
4. Notre Dame's OL – As maddening as the QB play has been, this unit's performances thus far mirror the QB production. False starts, holds, poor blitz pick-up and a game-plan where possibly the worst pass-blocking TE was put one-on-one with a future 1st round pick OLB for entire series. Golson's fumble in the end zone came on a play with 3 Stanford men rushing and 6 Irish linemen blocking – completely unacceptable. BYU is big and aggressive. A combination of quality play-calling and an establishment of the run early will go a long way to protecting the quarterback and putting this game away.
3. Cierre Wood Out Of The Dog House – I made some beefy claims about two players in the offseason and early going. Ishaq Williams hasn't followed up his stellar Navy performance, as I predicted. After Navy I loudly opined that Wood didn't belong in the Top 3 on the depth chart because he wasn't "the best at any particular RB skill." Dead. Wrong. Cierre Wood, when deployed, has been the Irish's most dangerous and consistent weapon. He joins TE Tyler Eifert as seniors who are being severely underutilized and players who must get more touches down the stretch for the offense to proceed. What happened to all those two back sets?
2. BYU QB Riley Nelson – Nelson took the reigns after a 2-2 start in 2011 and went 8-1 as starter. Nelson had 5 games with 3 TD passes and during a 5 game stretch ran for 60+ yards in every game. It's hard to know what caused his regression in 2012, but this is a player maker who presents problems if he's on. Irish fans hope to see more of the Nelson who has 6 interceptions in his last 60 pass attempts over the Nelson who had only 7 interceptions in 200+ attempts a year ago.
1. Manti Te'o – Every week this young man finds a way to amaze us. With Notre Dame on Fall Break the past few days, the athletic department let Te'o make some radio rounds and he blew the doors off some seasoned media types. Go read what Jim Rome had to say about the encounter with the most popular Mormon who'll take the field this Saturday. His Heisman buzz is starting to become a consistent purr. BYU is another opponent tailored to his skill set. If the Irish are to avoid looking ahead or letting down this week, all signs will point to him driving the focus of the team where it needs to be. He may have scouts drooling over his skill set, but NFL marketing departments will try and bump the All-American even higher up teams draft boards as he presents such a unique blend of skill and persona at a position a franchise can build around. Good Lord – please don't send him to Cleveland.
Predicting The Game & What We'll See
I came a little closer with last week's prediction. I had the Irish winning 27-17. BYU is a team in free fall and dominating questionable opponents early blew up in last week's 42-24 thrashing at the hands of Oregon State. Confidence can't be in strong supply in that locker room while the Irish are bursting with it and pegged for next week's biggest game if they can take care of business at home. These Notre Dame touchdown streaks have been fun to watch but are admittedly products of fantastic play and luck. Who cares if it runs out this week as long as they pull out the victory. I believe BYU gets into the end zone at some point but it won't be a theme. The Irish running game can dominate the time of possession and put the Cougars away late.
BYU – Riley Nelson is going to hit a few big pass plays because he's due and ND won't have a big lead until later in the game. As the Irish have done all season – it's the #1 Red Zone Defense in America – stalls will end in 3 points instead of 7. BYU's front seven can hang early but will eventually get grinded on as the Irish dictate the tempo in the second half. BYU is facing the best team on their schedule and know that a win could still lead to double-digit wins when all is said and done. While well prepared and focused, the Cougars just don't have enough to hang all day with the Irish.
Notre Dame – Hey Brian Kelly, why don't you do what all the bloggers want you to? Running the ball to set up Tyler Eifert and the passing game seems to make sense to all the Man Cave Quarterbacks out there. With a BYU offense that falters badly against even mediocre defenses, it would seem prudent to take this game to the trenches and capitalize on field position provided by the fantastic Irish defense. Cierre Wood is going to break out big time in this game, spearheading a rushing attack that totals 250+ on the ground. If Kelly doesn't listen to us, he could at least tune into NBC's Mike Mayock's screaming about Tyler Eifert always being open. I think #80 grabs 5+ balls with 90 yards and a touchdown. The Irish pull away with a big 3rd quarter and win handily setting up a battle of titans in Norman, Oklahoma.
Game Vitals
Notre Dame (-13) Over/Under: 40
Herring Bone Says Take Notre Dame (-13) & The Over
Final Score: Notre Dame 31-10
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