The Blue Jays enter the 2016 season with high expectations after a visit to the American League Championship last year. The 2016 version of the team will look nearly identical to the 2015 version and a repeat playoff run should follow. This team represents not just a city but a whole country. With their success last season this team was able to have a country #ComeTogether and support baseball in the Great White North with immense pride.
The only blockbuster addition to this team in the off-season came in the form of Drew Storen. He gives this team a reliable 8th inning guy and a closer option should Osuna struggle out the gate. Junior Lake was also added to the outfield, and with the looming departure of Bautista likely to occur, he may be the right fielder on the team for the 2017 season.
Injured players from the 2015 season are now back or nearing return. Left fielder Michael Saunders had a knee injury that stifled his 2015 campaign, but looks ready to play this year. Devon Travis is hoping to return to his second base spot by May, but until then Ryan Goins will hold down the fort. Depending on how successful a start Goins has, Travis may not have his spot just handed back to him when he is healthy. A platoon method may be used to ease him back into the game. Despite a .304/8/35 stat line last season, he has yet to fully prove himself at the MLB level having only played 62 games.
He is a great leadoff bat option for this team, but unable to start the season, has that spot up for grabs. I’d personally like to see Kevin Pillar get a crack at it. We all know he has Gold Glove talent in the field, but I think his bat is only getting better. He produced a .278/12/56 stat line in 2015 with 25 stolen bases as well. I think he can be a .300 bat and 20+HR player as long as he remains patient at the plate.
There are also a few position battles up for grabs during Spring Training this year. The starter job is the most intriguing with four candidates in the running. Drew Hutchison struggled in 2015 with a 5.57 ERA and unless he impresses in March will either start the season in the bullpen or down with the Buffalo Bisons in AAA. Jesse Chavez was another player brought back this off-season, and may grab this spot. His 7-15 record and 4.18 ERA may not turn heads but his 157.0 IP and 136K, along with his veteran presence may give him an edge. Next, Floyd had an injury plagued season last year but has pitched over 1200 innings at the MLB level and is only 45 K away from 1000 on his career. Lastly, and my personal favourite, Aaron Sanchez. He worked to a 7-6 record and 3.22 ERA in his rookie season last year. The team may elect to have him start the season in the bullpen but he has starter stuff and if not in 2016 should certainly be a rotation member in the 2017 season.
The first base spot is also up for grabs with Smoak and Colabello fighting for playing time. Looking at the 2015 season would show that Colabello has an edge to get this job. His .321/15/54 stat line showcase his talent, and like Pillar, has the ability to be yet another 20+ HR player on this team. Smoak had similar HR and RBI numbers to Colabello in 2015 with 18/59 but his .226 average is not something you want in the line-up every day. Smoak is a solid bat off the bench and will get playing time, but the everyday first baseman job is Colabello’s to lose.
The Infield
Starting behind the plate we have Canadian born and raised Russell Martin. With all the rotation talk and contract discussions this off-season he seems to have been somewhat forgotten. He is an elite catcher and fantastic mentor for the numerous youngsters such as Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna. He has great abilities with his bat too. A .240/23/77 stat line is more than desirable from your catcher and with a strong 2016 campaign he will reach the 700 career RBI milestone, only needing 83 to do so.
Over at third base, we have the reigning AL MVP in Josh Donaldson. His .297/41/123 stat line from 2015 speaks for itself. He gives this team a great player at the hot corner and is primed to be hot himself again in 2016.
Swing between the bases and Troy Tulowitzki will start his first full season as a Blue Jay with high expectations. Being traded to a contending team is reason enough to put a smile on your face and now he has to show he was worth the deal. A .280/17/70 mark from your SS is great and could be the opening day leadoff bat if the team is not confident to go with Pillar.
At second base, the 2016 season will start with Ryan Goins. He is widely known for his glove over his bat. With the line-up this team possesses though any production they get from him at the plate is a bonus. His .250/5/45 year in 2015 show he is a decent option at the 8th or 9th batting spot. If he plays well throughout April, he may hold on to the second base spot after Devon Travis is back from injury. Goins is a fan favourite in Blue Jay country and will continue to show his worth.
At first base, we have Colabello or Smoak. I highlighted their production in 2015 earlier and if the team goes with Colabello at the opening day starter I anticipate him batting 5th in the line-up. He has MLB talent and is now getting his shot. He just needs to prove that 2015 was not a one hit wonder.
Lastly, the DH. This is where we find Edwin Encarnacion. I didn’t discuss him at the first base position because I feel he is more valuable to this team at the DH spot. He batted .277/39/111 last season and is a clean-up bat all MLB teams desire. If this is his last season as a Blue Jay, he will have numerous suitors for his services in 017 and beyond. A stellar 2016 will see him reach career milestones of 300 HR and 900 RBI. He will require 32 HR and 85 RBI to do so and based off of past success this is doable, as long as he stays healthy.
The Outfield
Starting in left field we have the returning Michael Saunders. He was injured in 2015 so Jays fans have yet to fully see what he can do. He will likely be a middle of the order bat, but I expect him to get more days off than most to ensure his stability. Coming back from a knee injury is not easy. The 4th outfielder will see time at the position to ensure a devastating injury for Saunders will be less likely to repeat this year.
Pillar controls the center field spot and does so with highlight reel abilities day in and day out. Although head office and management may be concerned with how his reckless plays and catches increase the chance of injury, it has had many positive dividends. He finds way to track down balls that few can and saves runs. He was robbed of the Gold Glove last season, in my opinion, and with another full season on the team is only going to get better. He may soon be one of the best CF not just in the AL East but in all of Major League Baseball.
At right field we have the heart and soul of the team Jose Bautista. Although a .250 average isn’t great, you’ll give up some average points for a guy who consistently produces the home run and RBI numbers he does. His 40/114 last season have become near certain. His health and back can be cause for concern at times, but if he gets the needed days off and stays healthy the 2016 season will be memorable. Like Edwin he is close to the 300 HR and 900 RBI milestones, only needing 14/107 to do so. If this season is his last in a Blue Jays jersey it will be heart wrenching for the fans, but the team will move on.
The 4th outfielder spot will go to a youngster with little MLB experience. Canadian Dalton Pompey would be a natural fan favourite pick, but Carrera, Ceciliani, and Lake will all compete for this roster spot. Pillar has the speed element that few on this team do. The power bats are plenty, but with the exception of Pillar, there is a limited threat of speed in the line-up. Pillar batted .278 last season combined with 12 HR and 56 RBI with 25 stolen bases.
Ezequiel Carrera played in 91 games last season with a .273/3/26 stat line. The injury to Saunders may have pushed him to the MLB level prematurely and I anticipate him starting 2016 in AAA.
Darrell Ceciliani was brought over from the Mets and at only 25 years old is another outfielder of the future for this team. He only played in 39 games last season so his .206/1/3 stat line is little to go off. His is tearing it up though in spring training batting .444 with a home run and four RBIs. The future may be now for this player, but don’t be shocked if he starts 2016 with the Bisons in AAA.
Junior Lake has speed, that is certain, he already has four stolen bases this spring. He has played in 201 games at the MLB level, but only suited up for 29 between the Cubs and Orioles in 2015. It is in my opinion that he was brought in with the mind-set that Bautista will not be with this team in 2017. Lake will not just be handed the job of course, but like Ceciliani is only 25 years old and still has strides to make.
Starting rotation
Stroman is the new Ace of this franchise. He came back from injury last year on a mission and completed that mission in dominating fashion with a 4-0 record and 1.67 ERA. I think he has the stuff to be a 200.0 IP with 18+ wins. He wants to be the opening day starter and his passion for the game is contagious.
Estrada was a pleasant surprise last season and the Jays hope he capitalizes on that success in 2016. He worked to a 13-8 record and 3.13 ERA with 181.0 innings pitched. He can be a solid middle rotation player for this team, assuming 2015 was not a one and done.
Happ is back in Toronto. When this acquisition occurred it came with scrutiny, but his 2015 season with Pittsburgh should have Jays fans excited. Similar numbers to Estrada with an 11-8 record and 3.61 ERA coupled with 151 strikeouts over 172.0 IP the Jays have another reliable arm for the rotation. He has pitched over 1000 innings in his career and needs 141 K’s to reach 1000 on his career.
The 4th lock as a starter, R.A Dickey, continues to be an okay pitcher for Toronto, but not the Cy Young guy that they had hoped to acquire. He is a sure-fire 200.0 inning guy, and that is key for winning teams. You need to keep the bullpen fresh come September and Dickey ensures that. His 11-11 record and 3.91 ERA are decent numbers and as much as more wins would be nice, the innings mean more.
Bullpen
Starting with new acquisition Drew Storen. He is a great back-end bullpen guy. He converted 29/34 save opportunities for Washington before Papelbon was brought in. He also had 67 K over 55.0 IP. He is a strikeout per inning guy and like I mentioned earlier is a more than positive safety net as a closer if Osuna struggles.
Osuna had a great rookie season and unless he performs poorly in spring training should retain the closer role, until he shows otherwise. He converted on 20/23 save opportunities in 2016 with 75 strikeouts over 69.2 innings. The sophomore season can be a struggle for pitchers at the MLB level. If he listens to his coaching staff and follows the direction Martin gives him, he should continue to show his worth.
Cecil has been a reliable bullpen pitcher for this team. He can start when needed, but is that middle inning guy that can keep them in a game or maintain a lead. He worked to a 2.48 ERA last season over 54.1 innings with 70 K’s.
Loup is another strikeout per inning guy out of the pen. His ERA was elevated in 2016 at 4.46 but he still gives this team a high level of production when called upon.
Delabar is another bullpen guy hoping to crack the opening day roster. He pitched well early in 2016 but struggled mid-season and was sent down to AAA. Another strikeout per inning player is something all MLB teams hope to have in their pen and that’s where Delabar hopes to start 2016.
Whoever loses out on the 5th starter job will join this trio and together will encompass a bullpen that aims to maintain leads their potent offense is likely to create.
Schedule
The Blue Jays have a great schedule in 2016. June and July is where this team can build tremendous momentum and secure a playoff spot. Nineteen out of their twenty-four games in July are at Rogers Center and this home field stretch needs to be taken full advantage of. This team plays 51 games over June and July and only four are versus playoff teams from 2015. Twenty are versus teams who won less than 75 in 2015 and only fourteen are against AL East teams.
September and October will be a challenging finish with 22/29 games against AL East opponents. This further shows the importance of capitalizing on an easy mid-season schedule.
Breaking their season down into three, two month chunks has me predict a 105-57 finish.
April/ May 30-24
June/ July 40-11
Aug/ Sept/ Oct 35-22
Opening Day lineup, in my opinion
- Pillar (CF)
- Donaldson (3B)
- Bautista (RF)
- Encarnacion (DH)
- Colabello (1B)
- Tulowitzki (SS)
- Saunders (LF)
- Martin (C)
- Goins (2B)
*If Encarnacion’s oblique injury has him unable to go opening day than swap in Smoak at 1B and move Colabello to DH.
Bench
Thole (C) Barney (INF) Smoak (1B) Pompey (OF) Ceciliani (OF)
Although a 100-win season may be a lofty accomplishment I fully believe the talent, drive, and passion of this team can get it done.
The 2016 season is shaping up to be one for the ages. It may be the final year we see Bautista and Encarnacion dawn the Blue and White. It may also be the year the Championship flies’ north of the border. Regardless, baseball is strong and healthy in Canada and this team will once again have the nation #ComeTogether
If you are a regular reader of Super Two Sports you will be familiar with my NHL articles. As the NHL season comes to a close you can now look ahead to my writing on the Blue Jays of the MLB. Wednesdays will consist of a Player Profile article and weekly reviews will also be published.
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