The annual NFL Owner’s Meetings are underway in Boca Raton, Florida. This year, the owners approved seven rule changes for the 2016 NFL season. The most intriguing of all being the new touchback rule.
Touchbacks being brought to 25-yard line for a simple reason: to discourage kickoff returns, which NFL deems the most dangerous play in game
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 23, 2016
The NFL has effectively tried to limit the amount of kick off returns for years now due to safety concerns. The touchback rules have worked for the most part but this new change is quite questionable. In an effort to eliminate kickoff returns, the NFL may have unknowingly made them more justifiable. Yes, placing the ball at the 25 yard line after a touchback is an incentive for the runner to take a knee and will cut down on players running the ball out from deep in the end zone. What the NFL neglected, however, is how the kicking team will view this change.
Placing the ball at the 25 yard line instead of the 20 is, statistically, the wrong choice. Twenty-nine teams averaged 20 yards or more yards per return during the 2015 season, making the 20 yard line an ideal placement after a touchback. So what is the implication adding 5 more yards?
On the surface, it makes sense. Players will now take a knee when they normally would have taken the ball out. However, that is only if the kicking team kicks it deep enough to allow the returner to take a knee. Statistically, the kicking team would benefit by allowing the opposing team to return the ball. Only nine teams averaged 25 yards or more per return in 2015. This means that the defense would start with better field position by allowing a kickoff return instead of kicking the ball through the endzone. In a league where every yard is precious, a touchback now becomes a hindrance to the defense. Why kick it deep for a touchback when returners are less likely to return the ball to the 25 yard line or beyond?
The quick answer…Don’t. Teams would be better off playing the numbers and allowing the return. This could result in a rise in kickoff returns in 2016.
The NFL is trying to make the game safer, however, this one may back fire. Numbers don’t lie and, by trying to encourage returners to take a touchback by adding extra yardage, the NFL neglected one of the most important parts of modern day sports. Statistics.
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