(AP Photo)
The MLB First Year Player Draft is arguably is the most difficult draft in professional sports to predict accurately. Teams have to be extra careful with their picks because there is a lot of guesswork for some players, but there a good amount of players where you can tell there’s something special. Obviously, most of the special players will be gone in the first round and with 2016’s draft just a little over a month away; now seems like a good time to see how the top ten picks of last year’s draft are faring so far in their professional career.
1. SS Dansby Swanson- Atlanta Braves via Arizona: 0 HR, 6 RBI’s, .333/.406/.474
Dansby Swanson was originally selected with the first overall pick by the Arizona Diamondbacks, but the team dealt him as part of the package to land Shelby Miller from the Braves in the offseason. Swanson was one of eight shortstops selected in the first round and he’s one of four shortstops taken in the top ten of the draft. He also became the first player to be drafted number one overall to be traded the same year he was drafted. Swanson has played in 36 games in his young professional career hitting .307 with 1 home run and 11 RBI’s combined between the Hillsboro Hops and the Carolina Mudcats. Swanson is a developed college bat that can help him make it through the system fairly quickly and his expected arrival time right now is some time in 2017, which sounds about right for him. He is the Braves’ top prospect and they hope for him to be a cornerstone to rebuild this once great franchise around.
2. SS Alex Bregman- Houston Astros: 5 HR 14 RBI’s, .395/.480/.767
Going at number two in draft was shortstop Alex Bregman out of Lousiana State as if the Astros really needed another shortstop when they currently have Carlos Correa. Bregman is listed as the Astros top prospect and he has seen nothing but success so far in his professional career. He is off to a torrid start in Double-A Corpus Christie with a batting average at almost .400 and not mention he has already hit five home runs, which is more than he hit his first 66 games of his minor league career. Bregman also has great speed and solid arm strength to go with an above average glove. Like Swanson, Bregman is projected to be in the majors in 2017, but the mystery of where he would play has yet to be with both middle infield positions already taken for the next 10 years or so. There isn’t any shame in having options though and the Astros farm system continues to be a treasure trove.
3. SS Brendan Rodgers- Colorado Rockies: 4 HR 9 RBI’s, .298/.377/.574
Selected with third pick in the draft was the third straight shortstop taken in the draft named Brendan Rodgers who was only 19-years-old. Like the other two shortstops taken before, he is the top prospect of his organization, which is the Colorado Rockies. Rodgers is playing his first full season of minor league ball in Single-A with the Asheville Tourists. Through 12 games with the Asheville, Rodgers is hitting .298 with four home runs and nine RBI’s and has scored nine runs while striking out only 11 times in 47 at-bats. Rodgers has lightning bat speed and can generate plus power with his easy right-handed stroke. Rodgers isn’t expected in the majors for another couple of years, however, the two positions he is projected to be slotted at in the majors might be taken for a long time thanks to guys named Story and Arenado.
4. RHP Dillon Tate- Texas Rangers: 1-0 (2 games started), 0.00 ERA, 1 walk, 16 strikeouts
Congratulations to Dillon Tate, who was the first non-shortstop to be selected in the 2015 MLB Draft and it was all made possible by the Texas Rangers with the fourth pick in the draft. The 21-year-old right-handed pitcher is rated as the Rangers third best prospect and he will probably move up to number once Nomar Mazara is taken off the official list. Tate has only started in eight professional games in his young career and he has posted a 0.46 ERA in 19 ⅔ innings pitched with 20 strikeouts and only issued four walks. Tate has two well above-average pitches, complementing a lively 92-98 MPH fastball with a sharp 85-89 MPH slider. Tate also features a changeup, which has improved with him throwing it more often and it could give him a decent third pitch. Rangers have a strong one-two punch in their rotation with Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels, but after that there’s a significant dropoff in talent. Tate profiles as third or fourth rotation starter and is projected to be in the big leagues in 2017, but has a lot of ground to cover in the farm system.
5. OF Kyle Tucker- Houston Astros: 1 HR, 5 RBI’s, .256/.353/.395
With their second and final pick in the first round, the Astros took outfielder Kyle Tucker, the brother of Preston Tucker who is also an outfielder on the Astros. Tucker is listed as the Astros’ fourth best prospect behind Alex Bregman, A.J. Reed, and Francis Martes and his entering his first full season of minor league ball with the Single-A Quad Cities River Bandits. The 19-year-old is off to a decent start to his 2016 season hitting .256 with one home run and 5 RBI’s. Tucker is one of the best pure hitters from the 2015 MLB Draft and makes consistent contact with his fast hands and we know there’s nothing like the swing of a lefty. There is still plenty of room for Tucker to developed and profiles best as right fielder with a solid arm strength and speed.
6. LHP Tyler Jay- Minnesota Twins: 1-0 (two games started), 2.70 ERA, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts
The second pitcher selected in the draft was southpaw Tyler Jay by the Minnesota Twins out of the University of Illinois. Jay is rated as the Twins third best prospect as he works to become a starter after being a reliever throughout his college career. The 22-year-old made his first two starts of his professional career this year pitching five innings in both starts and only allowing three runs in in 10 innings pitched. Jay spent last year in advance A-ball as a reliever because there was some thought to rush to the big league bullpen, but was out of gas so the pna couldn’t be put in motion. Twins plan to turn Jay into a starter because they believe he has the pitches and command to do so. Jay showcases a 92-94 MPH fastball that can touch higher when needed and he has a top notch out pitch with his slider. He also has a changeup and a curve. The ultimate goal for Jay to become a starter will delay his arrival time to the majors, but it could be worth it in the end for the Twins.
7. Andrew Benintendi- Boston Red Sox: 0 HR, 10 RBI’s, .327/.390/.635
The second outfielder taken off the board was Arkansas’ product Andrew Benintendi by the Boston Red Sox with the seventh overall pick. Benintendi is the Red Sox’s top outfielder prospect in their organization and said to have the best all-round tools of any college player in the 2015 draft. Benintendi has raked in his professional career never hitting below .290 in his first two seasons and has a pretty left-handed stroke with a keen sense of the strike zone. He projects as a possible .300 hitter with 20 or more home runs per year. Benintendi also has plus speed and good instincts in all phases of the game. The one drawback is he has average arm strength, but it shouldn’t stop him from being able to play all three outfield positions. If he continues to hit, Benintendi will speed through the Red Sox farm system and find himself in the show soon enough.
8. RHP Carson Fulmer- Chicago White Sox: 0-3 8.53 ERA, 10 walks, 8 strikeouts
Vanderbilt had another one of its players select in the top 10 and that was pitcher Carson Fulmer drafted by the Chicago White Sox eighth overall. The 22-year-old right-hander is the White Sox’s top prospect in their organization and big things are expected of him. Many believe he should rush through the minors like Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon did. Fulmer can miss bats with both his 93-97 MPH fastball and his power curveball. His changeup is a decent third offering and it can improve some if he throws it more. However, some scouts believe he could wind up as reliever due to his lack of size and a high-tempo delivery that affects his control sometimes. Fulmer is off a bit toa slow start in Double-A Birmingham allowing 12 runs in 12 ⅔ innings pitched and issuing 10 walks to his eight strikeouts. Still the White Sox see Carson Fulmer as potential number two starter with his electric stuff and his highly competitive makeup.
9. 2B/OF Ian Happ- Chicago Cubs: 2 HR, 11 RBI’s, .294/.390/.510
For the third straight draft, the Cubs took a college hitter with an early first-round pick in the draft and this time they selected outfielder Ian Happ with the eighth overall pick. Happ is listed as the Cubs’ third best prospect and has seen time in all three outfield positions in his young pro career. Happ can do almost anything offensively being a switch-hitter with a quick stroke and good balance from both sides of the plate. He also has a strong arm and solid speed. He is off to a good start this year in Single-A and there is no rush for him to be in the majors with the Cubs having a jampacked outfield.
10. SS Cornelius Randolph- Philadelphia Phillies: 1 HR, 5 RBI’s, .190/.277/.310/
To round out the top 10, the Phillies selected high school shortstop Cornelius Randolph, who is known for his advanced bat. Since being drafted, Randolph has moved to the outfield since the Phillies already have J.P. Crawford and Randolph comes in rated as the Phillies’ best prospect. After dominating in the Gulf Coast League, Randolph has found it rough sailing in his first 10 games with the Lakewood BlueClaws. Randolph is slowly figuring it out though as he had a four-hit game last time out including his first home run with Lakewood. Randolph’s hitting will come around because he has a very advanced approach for his age and it’s what will carry him to the big leagues. The Phillies moved him to left field and that’s most likely where he will stay. His defense in the outfield is probably the biggest thing he has to work on, but his bat could push him through the Phillies’ system fairly quickly.
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