Projecting the 2012/13 Ottawa Senators' Production

With the advancement of hockey statistics over the past few years, one of the leaders at the forefront of this movement has been Rob Vollman.

He may be the founder of HockeyAbstract.com, but he is also a founding writer of Hockey Prospectu and a regular contributor to ESPN Insider, NHLnumbers.com and Arctic Ice Hockey. You may remember us having him one our podcast, or you may recall us publishing the Ottawa Senators' Player Usage Charts in a blog article earlier in the year.

Even if you only have a passing interest in the advancement of stats in hockey, at some point, you have invariably come across some of his work.

One of his inventions is the Snepts System that is used to make statistical projections for current NHL players based upon similar historical players.

Borrowing from HockeyAbstract.com, Vollman explains the Snepts System in detail:

The system of searching NHL's history to find statistically similar players for a variety of purposes, most notably future scoring projections, began in 2009. In the grand tradition of naming such systems after rugged former NHLers, it is informally known as the Snepsts system, but is unaffiliated with Harold Snepsts (who nonetheless finds it amusing that the system is named after someone whose scoring was so modest).

Throughout the 2011-12 season the system was further refined with the assistance of several people, most notably Neil Greenberg, and among other improvements, it most notably includes only players from the post-expansion era (1967), and looks at shots, power play scoring and GVT in addition to the goals and assists it did previously. It is therefore informally known as Snepsts67.

The method is reasonably simple: it searches post-expansion NHL history for players of a similar position and age whose era-adjusted statistics most closely match the target player, both for the current season, preceding season and previous career totals, in a 4:2:1 ratio.

The ten most similar players are used to set low-water, high-water and average scoring expectations for today's players, and also to initiate interesting conversations about a player's role and who he should be used. Attached is a simple spreadsheet with this data for every NHL player who played at least a single game in each of the preceding two seasons.

From Rob's site, you can actually download the Snepts System data (note: it's in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet) and take a look at most of the players in the NHL. For the purpose of this blog, I've pulled the Senators players who were included in his data and have posted their comparables and projected 2012/13 point totals below.

At the very least, it gives us something to discuss during these mundane days. Which players for you have the most intriguing comps and projected numbers?

39		Daniel Alfredsson	75	27	32
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
41	1976	John Bucyk	49	16.0	19.4	82	26.8	32.5	59.2	8.7
38	2008	Robert Lang	50	16.8	19.4	82	27.6	31.8	59.4	9.1
40	1980	Jean Ratelle	47	7.6	18.9	82	13.3	33.0	46.2	9.1
39	2007	Mark Recchi	72	13.7	32.9	82	15.6	37.5	53.1	9.3
38	2010	Mike Knuble	79	23.4	15.6	82	24.3	16.2	40.5	9.5
39	2009	Robert Lang	64	8.7	19.1	82	11.1	24.5	35.6	9.7
38	1995	Joe Mullen	37	6.8	6.1	82	15.1	13.5	28.6	10.0
41	2009	Mark Recchi	81	17.3	23.9	82	17.5	24.2	41.7	10.5
38	2008	Mike Modano	80	14.0	28.6	82	14.4	29.3	43.7	10.8
39	1974	Norm Ullman	80	7.0	21.2	82	7.2	21.7	28.9	11.0
		Average					17.3	26.4	43.7

25		Erik Condra	81	8	17
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
25	1986	Doug Wickenheiser	80	9.4	11.2	82	9.6	11.5	21.1	2.9
28	2002	Mike Grier	82	15.0	17.1	82	15.0	17.1	32.1	2.9
26	1974	Rey Comeau	75	10.9	16.3	82	11.9	17.8	29.7	3.2
28	1985	Bobby Gould	79	12.7	13.2	82	13.2	13.7	26.9	3.3
24	2001	Trevor Letowski	75	9.1	16.5	82	9.9	18.0	28.0	3.4
26	1991	Todd Krygier	67	9.9	13.2	82	12.1	16.2	28.3	3.4
27	1989	Gaetan Duchesne	72	8.7	5.9	82	9.9	6.7	16.6	3.4
27	1984	Ric Seiling	73	11.0	10.5	82	12.4	11.8	24.2	3.5
25	1985	Ron Flockhart	79	14.7	31.2	82	15.3	32.4	47.6	3.6
26	2007	Andy Hilbert	70	7.8	7.7	82	9.1	9.0	18.2	3.6
		Average					11.8	15.4	27.3

37		Sergei Gonchar	74	5	32
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
36	1984	Brad Park	67	8.9	21.1	82	10.9	25.8	36.7	7.7
37	2011	Roman Hamrlik	68	2.0	11.0	82	2.4	13.3	15.7	8.7
36	2011	Kimmo Timonen	76	4.0	39.0	82	4.3	42.1	46.4	9.3
37	2001	Phil Housley	80	15.2	24.7	82	15.6	25.3	40.9	9.7
36	1987	Borje Salming	66	1.4	17.7	82	1.7	22.0	23.7	10.7
39	1990	Larry Robinson	62	0.8	17.3	82	1.1	22.9	23.9	10.8
38	1993	Mark Howe	44	3.3	16.8	82	6.2	31.3	37.5	10.9
36	2010	Roman Hamrlik	79	4.9	28.3	82	5.1	29.4	34.5	11.0
36	1997	Dave Babych	53	0.0	9.3	82	0.0	14.4	14.4	11.2
39	1971	Harry Howell	77	0.9	15.6	82	1.0	16.6	17.6	11.5
		Average					4.8	24.3	29.1

25		Colin Greening	82	17	20
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
24	2010	Blake Wheeler	81	17.5	25.3	82	17.7	25.6	43.3	3.0
24	1984	Walt Poddubny	32	3.4	10.5	82	8.7	26.9	35.6	3.1
25	2010	Drew Stafford	62	30.2	20.5	82	39.9	27.1	67.1	3.1
28	1975	Inge Hammarstrom	76	14.8	17.2	82	16.0	18.6	34.5	3.1
28	1986	Tony McKegney	75	22.5	15.0	82	24.6	16.4	41.0	3.3
26	1984	Darryl Sutter	49	13.7	12.7	82	22.9	21.3	44.2	3.4
24	1982	Tony McKegney	78	24.8	26.5	82	26.1	27.9	53.9	3.6
25	1997	Pat Falloon	58	8.1	10.4	82	11.5	14.7	26.2	3.7
24	1976	Bob Nystrom	80	23.2	22.7	82	23.8	23.3	47.0	3.8
26	2003	Brad Isbister	51	10.4	8.3	82	16.7	13.3	30.1	3.8
		Average					20.8	21.5	42.3

21		Erik Karlsson	81	19	59
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
24	1988	Gary Suter	63	9.2	35.7	82	12.0	46.5	58.4	9.8
24	1977	Ian Turnbull	77	11.3	39.8	82	12.0	42.4	54.4	10.5
24	1989	Steve Duchesne	79	14.4	31.0	82	14.9	32.2	47.1	11.2
22	1975	Denis Potvin	78	24.2	54.7	82	25.4	57.5	82.9	11.6
24	1978	Ron Greschner	60	12.9	28.5	82	17.6	39.0	56.6	12.6
22	1983	Paul Coffey	80	27.0	60.4	82	27.7	61.9	89.6	13.2
22	1994	Sandis Ozolinsh	48	8.0	14.7	82	13.7	25.1	38.8	13.7
23	1991	Brian Leetch	80	16.8	62.2	82	17.2	63.8	81.0	14.2
24	1992	Brian Leetch	36	4.4	22.4	82	10.0	51.0	61.0	14.4
23	1983	Raymond Bourque	78	20.9	45.6	82	22.0	47.9	69.9	15.1
		Average					17.3	46.7	64.0

24		Guillaume Latendresse	16	5	4
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
24	1989	Randy Burridge	63	12.3	11.1	82	16.0	14.4	30.5	3.4
25	2007	Scott Hartnell	80	23.5	18.4	82	24.1	18.9	42.9	3.4
25	2003	Marco Sturm	64	21.8	20.8	82	27.9	26.7	54.6	3.5
24	1977	Bob Murdoch	71	11.3	22.0	82	13.1	25.4	38.5	3.6
24	1977	Bob Murdoch	71	11.3	22.0	82	13.1	25.4	38.5	3.6
26	1984	Mike Foligno	77	18.5	20.4	82	19.7	21.7	41.4	3.8
27	1973	Cliff Koroll	78	17.5	21.9	82	18.4	23.0	41.4	3.8
24	1988	Petr Klima	51	17.8	11.6	82	28.6	18.7	47.3	3.9
24	1989	Claude Lemieux	39	5.8	7.4	82	12.2	15.6	27.8	3.9
25	1997	Mariusz Czerkawski	68	12.1	13.5	82	14.6	16.3	30.9	3.9
		Average					18.8	20.6	39.4

27		Mike Lundin	17	0	2
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
30	1982	Colin Campbell	53	0.7	5.0	82	1.1	7.7	8.8	1.4
27	1973	Gary Doak	69	0.0	3.5	82	0.0	4.2	4.2	1.8
28	1986	Brad Marsh	77	1.4	6.7	82	1.5	7.1	8.6	1.9
26	2000	Steven Halko	48	0.0	1.0	82	0.0	1.7	1.7	2.0
29	2007	Cory Sarich	80	2.0	4.8	82	2.1	4.9	7.0	2.0
30	2007	Colin White	57	2.0	7.7	82	2.9	11.1	14.0	2.5
30	1983	Greg Fox	73	1.3	7.0	82	1.5	7.9	9.3	2.5
29	2009	Douglas Murray	79	3.8	12.4	82	3.9	12.9	16.8	2.6
30	1968	Wayne Hillman	50	0.0	7.4	82	0.0	12.1	12.1	2.6
28	1998	Paul Laus	75	1.0	9.2	82	1.1	10.1	11.2	2.7
		Average					1.4	8.0	9.4

26		Marc Methot	46	1	6
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
28	1980	Colin Campbell	42	0.7	5.8	82	1.4	11.3	12.7	2.5
25	1971	Gary Doak	55	0.9	10.1	82	1.3	15.1	16.4	2.8
27	1999	Brad Bombardir	32	2.9	1.0	82	7.4	2.6	10.0	2.8
26	2010	Davis Drewiske	38	0.0	4.9	82	0.0	10.6	10.6	2.9
29	2000	Sean O'Donnell	80	3.9	12.6	82	4.0	12.9	16.9	2.9
26	1984	Tom Laidlaw	61	0.7	7.7	82	0.9	10.4	11.3	3.0
27	1989	Jim Johnson	75	2.2	9.6	82	2.4	10.5	12.9	3.0
27	2009	Anton Volchenkov	64	3.8	9.6	82	4.9	12.3	17.2	3.0
27	2001	Mattias Timander	78	4.1	7.2	82	4.3	7.6	11.9	3.0
28	1993	Jeff Beukeboom	68	6.6	6.7	82	8.0	8.1	16.0	3.1
		Average					3.5	10.1	13.6

27		Milan Michalek	77	35	25
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
29	2000	Brian Savage	62	20.3	23.3	82	26.8	30.8	57.7	3.4
29	1974	Jean Pronovost	78	33.4	26.1	82	35.1	27.4	62.6	4.8
27	1992	Claude Lemieux	77	22.0	38.0	82	23.4	40.5	63.9	5.2
27	2001	Fredrik Modin	54	14.2	17.5	82	21.6	26.6	48.1	5.3
29	2001	Geoff Sanderson	42	11.2	5.2	82	21.9	10.2	32.0	5.4
30	1994	John MacLean	46	15.1	11.0	82	26.9	19.6	46.5	5.4
29	2009	Michael Ryder	82	17.3	14.3	82	17.3	14.3	31.6	5.6
29	2000	Alex Selivanov	59	7.7	10.7	82	10.7	14.9	25.6	5.6
30	1981	Rick Kehoe	71	21.9	35.6	82	25.3	41.1	66.4	5.8
28	2000	Mariusz Czerkawski	82	28.9	31.0	82	28.9	31.0	59.9	5.9
		Average					23.8	25.6	49.4

32		Chris Neil	72	13	15
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
34	1975	Bryan Hextall	79	6.2	19.6	82	6.4	20.3	26.8	3.0
34	2008	Jamal Mayers	71	6.5	8.3	82	7.5	9.6	17.1	3.2
32	1975	Billy MacMillan	64	7.0	5.7	82	9.0	7.3	16.3	3.4
32	1990	Lou Franceschetti	51	1.5	6.3	82	2.4	10.1	12.5	3.5
32	1989	Jim Korn	46	1.4	3.7	82	2.5	6.6	9.1	3.6
34	1986	Rich Preston	73	5.8	6.7	82	6.5	7.5	14.0	3.6
35	1996	Randy Cunneyworth	76	10.9	22.6	82	11.8	24.4	36.1	3.6
34	2003	Tie Domi	80	7.3	13.5	82	7.5	13.8	21.3	3.7
32	1997	Dave Lowry	57	4.0	4.2	82	5.8	6.0	11.8	3.8
32	2010	Arron Asham	44	4.9	5.8	82	9.1	10.8	19.9	3.9
		Average					6.8	11.7	18.5

23		Jim O'Brien	28	3	3
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
26	1994	Patrik Carnback	41	5.3	13.7	82	10.6	27.4	38.0	3.0
25	2009	Colin Fraser	70	6.7	11.5	82	7.8	13.5	21.3	3.1
26	1998	Peter Ferraro	46	6.1	8.2	82	10.9	14.6	25.5	3.1
23	1985	Geoff Courtnall	64	14.1	11.1	82	18.1	14.2	32.3	3.2
23	2003	Rico Fata	73	16.6	18.7	82	18.6	21.0	39.7	3.2
24	1993	Jesse Belanger	70	13.9	27.8	82	16.3	32.6	48.8	3.2
25	2000	Tyson Nash	57	7.7	6.8	82	11.1	9.8	20.9	3.2
23	1987	David Bruce	28	5.0	2.2	82	14.6	6.4	21.1	3.3
22	2000	Matt Cooke	81	13.5	12.6	82	13.7	12.8	26.4	3.4
26	1997	Craig Conroy	81	14.1	30.1	82	14.3	30.5	44.7	3.4
		Average					13.6	18.3	31.9

33		Chris Phillips	80	5	14
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
32	2007	Hal Gill	81	2.9	20.3	82	2.9	20.6	23.5	3.8
34	1986	Mike Milbury	68	4.3	12.0	82	5.2	14.5	19.7	4.6
35	1995	Doug Lidster	59	4.2	7.8	82	5.8	10.8	16.7	4.8
36	2000	Bobby Dollas	21	1.0	1.0	82	3.9	3.9	7.8	4.8
33	2011	Cory Sarich	62	1.0	6.0	82	1.3	7.9	9.3	5.2
33	2011	Jan Hejda	81	5.0	14.0	82	5.1	14.2	19.2	5.2
34	1993	Kevin Lowe	71	4.1	11.8	82	4.7	13.6	18.4	5.2
32	1987	Tim Bothwell	78	4.3	9.6	82	4.5	10.1	14.6	5.3
34	2010	Brett Clark	82	8.8	21.4	82	8.8	21.4	30.2	5.3
32	2010	Henrik Tallinder	82	4.9	10.7	82	4.9	10.7	15.6	5.5
		Average					4.7	12.8	17.5

25		Peter Regin	10	2	2
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
24	2008	Daniel Paille	73	11.2	13.8	82	12.6	15.5	28.1	2.8
24	1999	Radek Bonk	80	22.3	36.3	82	22.9	37.2	60.1	2.9
25	1973	Guy Charron	76	20.8	26.3	82	22.4	28.4	50.8	3.5
26	1983	Rob McClanahan	41	4.0	5.6	82	8.0	11.2	19.2	3.5
28	1985	Dwight Foster	68	4.0	8.3	82	4.8	10.0	14.8	3.6
24	1974	Bill Clement	68	16.3	13.1	82	19.7	15.8	35.5	3.7
26	1989	Kelly Miller	80	13.0	16.3	82	13.3	16.7	30.0	3.7
27	1979	George Ferguson	73	15.9	22.3	82	17.9	25.0	42.9	3.7
27	1984	Alain Cote	80	8.9	15.5	82	9.1	15.9	25.0	3.8
28	1994	John Druce	43	13.4	4.6	82	25.6	8.8	34.3	3.8
		Average					15.6	18.5	34.1

23		Zack Smith	81	14	12
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
24	1994	Gino Odjick	23	3.6	4.6	82	12.8	16.4	29.2	1.8
22	1984	Troy Murray	80	17.8	28.1	82	18.2	28.8	47.0	2.2
23	1971	Bobby Sheehan	78	17.4	23.9	82	18.3	25.1	43.4	2.3
25	2008	Fredrik Sjostrom	79	6.5	5.5	82	6.7	5.7	12.5	2.3
23	2001	Matt Cooke	82	13.2	20.6	82	13.2	20.6	33.8	2.4
22	1994	Glen Murray	35	4.5	1.8	82	10.5	4.2	14.8	2.8
25	1988	Paul MacDermid	74	12.1	19.7	82	13.4	21.8	35.2	2.8
22	1975	Bob Gainey	78	11.7	10.6	82	12.3	11.1	23.4	2.9
26	2010	Jeff Tambellini	62	8.8	7.8	82	11.6	10.3	22.0	3.0
23	2007	Maxime Talbot	63	11.7	13.6	82	15.2	17.7	32.9	3.1
		Average					13.2	16.2	29.4

28		Jason Spezza	80	34	50
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
31	2000	Jeremy Roenick	80	28.9	44.6	82	29.6	45.7	75.3	4.4
30	1980	Darryl Sittler	80	29.8	38.5	82	30.5	39.5	70.0	4.6
30	1980	Gilbert Perreault	56	13.8	28.3	82	20.2	41.4	61.6	4.8
31	1983	Marian Stastny	68	13.5	22.5	82	16.3	27.1	43.4	5.3
30	1998	Mark Recchi	71	16.2	38.0	82	18.7	43.9	62.6	5.4
28	1999	Mats Sundin	73	31.0	40.2	82	34.8	45.2	80.0	5.6
30	2001	Petr Nedved	78	21.3	25.8	82	22.4	27.1	49.5	5.6
29	2000	Mats Sundin	82	27.0	44.6	82	27.0	44.6	71.6	5.7
29	1989	Jari Kurri	78	23.8	44.3	82	25.0	46.6	71.6	6.2
31	2002	Mats Sundin	75	37.1	35.1	82	40.6	38.4	78.9	6.2
		Average					26.5	39.9	66.5

22		Kyle Turris	55	12	17
Age	Year	Historical Match	GP	G	A	GP	G	A	PTS	Sim
22	1975	Lanny McDonald	75	28.8	45.7	82	31.5	50.0	81.5	2.3
23	1987	Rick Tocchet	65	22.2	24.3	82	28.0	30.7	58.7	2.3
23	2011	Artem Anisimov	79	16.0	20.0	82	16.6	20.8	37.4	2.5
23	2009	Tyler Kennedy	64	12.5	11.5	82	16.0	14.7	30.8	2.8
24	1997	Matthew Barnaby	72	5.0	20.8	82	5.7	23.7	29.4	2.9
24	1990	Shawn Burr	80	15.4	23.5	82	15.8	24.1	39.9	3.0
21	2002	Justin Williams	41	8.0	16.1	82	16.0	32.2	48.2	3.2
22	1987	Brian Lawton	74	12.2	17.7	82	13.5	19.6	33.1	3.2
23	1980	John Anderson	75	11.8	18.9	82	12.9	20.7	33.6	3.2
22	1980	Tony McKegney	80	25.6	23.2	82	26.2	23.8	50.0	3.3
		Average					18.2	26.0	44.2

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Projecting the 2012/13 Ottawa Senators’ Production

Alan Draper

Alan Draper

Alan Draper