Sending the Wrong Message

Watching the Senators this weekend was like watching ‘Red Wedding’ episode from Game of Thrones. Like the Starks, the Senators were lulled into a false sense of security and fans were left to helplessly watch along as their favourite team meet an untimely end.

The frustrating part of Ottawa’s situation is that they controlled their own destiny. They had sole possession of the Eastern Conference’s second wild card seed and a game in hand on the Boston Bruins and their lead dissipated faster than Colin Greening’s ice time when the Senators have a two-goal deficit.

In dropping two winnable games against the hapless Toronto Maple Leafs and a Florida Panthers team that was missing Roberto Luongo and Nick Bjugstad from its lineup, the Senators put themselves behind the eight-ball and are now three points behind the Bruins.

The Senators still have a game in hand on the Bruins, but as the margin for error decreases with each passing game. They needed points this weekend against two inferior clubs and only coming away with one is inexcusable. The Senators could have buried the Bruins’, but instead they opened the door for them.

The losses would be easier to stomach if the Senators were dressing their optimal lineup, but for whatever reason, an uninspired loss to the New York Rangers on Thursday has rendered Dave Cameron illogical. Lately, he’s been channeling his inner Paul MacLean –breaking apart some successful combinations after a loss.

It’s enough to make you wish that Father Muldoon was a Mike Hoffman fan.

Hoffman, the team’s leading goal scorer, has been the victim of Cameron’s shakeups of late. In fairness to Cameron, Hoffman has had some glaring turnovers within the defensive zone – the product of trying to do too much and make something out of nothing. He has paid the price for it by seeing his workload reduced, losing playing time to Alex Chiasson, Colin Greening and judging by the line combinations from this morning’s practice, Zack Smith.

It’s fine to send messages to players for being careless with the puck, but thanks to the injury to Milan Michalek, there aren’t any capable left wingers on the Senators’ roster that are capable of filling Hoffman’s shoes, especially when the numbers support the position that Hoffman’s the one who stirs the drink on the Zibanejad and Ryan line.

Via Puckalytics.com, the following numbers are a ‘With and Without You (WOWY) analysis of Zibanejad and Ryan’s play with Hoffman and with Chiasson:

Without Hoffman on the ice at 5v5 this season, Zibanejad is rocking a 46.7 CF% and a 45.5 GF%. Without Hoffman, Ryan’s at 47.1 CF% and a 48.7 GF%. By putting Hoffman on the fourth line, Cameron’s punishing Zibanejad, Ryan and Senators fans (h/t @SensNation) more than he’s punishing Hoffman.

Cameron’s coaching not to lose and instead of relying upon the strengths that helped carry his team through the

For whatever reason, Cameron is tactically afraid to deploy his more “skilled” players (read: Hoffman and Wiercioch) now that the games matter. It ignores the contributions both players made playing a principle role in getting the Senators back into the playoff hunt and in relying on his trustworthy grit players, they made the on-ice product worse.

There’s something to said about sending messages, but Cameron’s has the unintended consequence of being, “Hey, I’m prepared to make my team worse during the most pivotal phase of the season.”

The Senators had fate in their own hands and they compounded their own problems with self-inflicted dumb decisions. Now maybe the pressure of the situation is getting to Cameron and his players, or maybe other prevalent matters are distracting them. I can’t even begin to imagine how much Mark Reeds’ ailing health is weighing on their minds.

Yet despite these pressures, Cameron can make things easier for himself by relying on the guys that got him here.

Granted, for all of the lauding and praise that has been bestowed on Cameron since MacLean’s firing for using his personnel decisions, most of these personnel utilization changes were made because of injury. Convenient injuries to redundant veterans allowed Cameron to give his younger players bigger and more prominent roles.

Assuming of course that the Senators don’t run out of games first, as more players return to health, I will be looking forward to seeing how this impacts Cameron’s decision-making down the stretch from an evaluation perspective.

I want him to be different.

Forget playing it safe Cameron, that’s what your predecessor did.