The Extra 5-Percent

When Jonah Keri chronicled the rise of the Tampa Bay Rays, he described the process of how a downtrodden franchise made significant inroads in baseball’s toughest division without spending an exorbitant amount of money through their commitment to finding small edges or the “extra two-percent” in every aspect of the game.

Here in Ottawa, Dave Cameron is looking for the extra five-percent. Speaking to reporters yesterday morning after his team’s practice, Cameron said the Senator could see a 100-percent improvement if 20 of his players simply improved their game by five-percent.

Okay, so Cameron’s math is a little off and he could stand to use the same level of mathematical or analytical help that Joe Maddon received with the Rays since the scenario he presented would only create a five-percent team improvement. But hey, it’s the sentiment that is supposed to count, right?

The Senators have struggled through their first eight games and their 3-3-2 record flatters them. Heading into last night’s action, they had the 11th-lowest five-on-five Corsi For percentages and using War On Ice’s scoring chance data, the Senators also had the third-lowest percentage (45.7) ahead of only the Anaheim Ducks and Colorado Avalanche.

Some will attribute the Senators’ lack of success to not working hard enough or a lack of pride. But maybe, just maybe, this team simply isn’t good enough. Improvement through buzzwords like ‘pride’ and ‘work ethic’ always sound make for a good soundbite because those are things players have some control over. The players themselves have no control over the personnel or talent-level of the players within the room, so of course they’re going to throw out axioms which confirm the notion that the issues plaguing the team can be fixed from within. As much as I wish Erik Karlsson to come out and say things like, “If we’re going to draft and acquire local talent from the area, target the talented ones,” or “Have you seen our blue line?” or “The only way I’d be less inclined to pass to Mark Borowiecki is if he played without a stick,” he’s not going to.

At the risk of sounding cliché, the Senators are what they are. They are not horrible, but they sure as hell don’t resemble a contender either. Like every other recent season under Bryan Murray’s watch, they resemble be a playoff bubble team whose high-event hockey style makes them painful to watch at times and brilliant at others when their goaltenders stand on their heads.

Maybe if everything breaks their way, they can get into the first round and luck into a favourable first round matchup that can allow them to eke out a first round win, but that’s their ceiling and it’s been that way for years. For every shrewd move the organization makes, there is a counter-balancing “What the hell were they thinking?” transaction.

It’s only eight games into the season, but you can feel the fan base’s patience is starting to wear. It’s something that Dave Cameron is cognizant of.

Right now, I feel like the weatherman. When you got something planned and you turn on the TV and the weatherman is all talking about how sunny it is, everybody is happy. They listen. They turn it up. When the weatherman forecasts there is a storm on the horizon, they change the channel. Well, if we don’t fix our game, there is a storm coming.” ~ Dave Cameron via TSN’s Brent Wallace (@tsn_wally)

Other News and Notes

– With Mike Hoffman on the shelf with an undisclosed lower body injury and Curtis Lazar joining him on the sidelines with an upper body injury, Matt Puempel was recalled from Binghamton. Through six games with the B-Sens, Puempel tallied three goals and five points. He was also tied for the team-lead in shots with 20.

– The Senators published their latest prospect report on their website and of particular note are the performances of two of their QMJHL prospects: Francis Perron and Filip Chlapik. I know it’s the ‘Q’, but it’s still hard to believe that Perron’s ridiculous line of 12 goals and 25 points in 13 games only leaves him tied for sixth in league scoring. Chlapik is also performing at more than a point-per-game pace. He has scored six goals and 16 points in 13 games of his own.

– Erik Karlsson and his girlfriend went with Little Mermaid-inspired costumes for the team’s Halloween party.

– The Senators announced a five-year partnership with IBM “that will see the organization apply behavior-based, predictive analytics technologies from worldwide technology leader IBM to gain a deeper understanding of their fan base as individual consumers.”

As nice as it is to see the Senators invest in predictive analytics technologies to boost their own revenue streams, I wish the organization would fully embrace predictive analytics when it comes to their hockey ops department.

– It’s a clickbait kind of article considering its headline, but Eugene Melnyk admitted that he wants to use Parliament Hill as a nice backdrop for the 2017 Heritage Classic – which in all likelihood will be awarded to Ottawa in 2017 to commemorate the nation’s 150th anniversary.

– Teemu Selanne was the latest Hall of Fame talent to give Bobby Ryan some goal-scoring advice. Selanne texted Ryan instructing him to, “Just slap the side of that bottle a little bit.” It’s a reference to slapping the side of a ketchup bottle to start its flow and yes, I’m already looking forward to Ryan’s first hat-trick, a  fan subsequently throwing a bottle of Heinz onto the ice and Curtis Lazar shotgunning it back.

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