Guest Post: @Red_Vikreig Previews the 2016 NHL Draft for Ottawa

Ed. note: The following piece has been written by Craig Smith (@Red_Vikreig) who’s an OHL and QMJHL prospect analyst for Hockey Prospectus.

Craig was kind enough to pen his analysis of the first round leading up to the Ottawa Senators’ 12th overall selection – including analysis of a few value selections who may be available to the Senators in the second round.

If you’re not following Craig on Twitter, be sure to give him a follow and if you have any questions or comments regarding the prospects, be sure to leave them in the accompanying comment thread where Craig will have an opportunity to answer them.

So without further ado…

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Pierre Dorion takes to Buffalo for the 2016 NHL Entry Draft in charge of the Ottawa Senators for the first time as General Manager. Dorion was Bryan Murray’s right hand man, and had been the conductor of the Sens draft since 2014; after the departure of Tim Murray. During that time the Ottawa Senators have made 13 selections during those past two drafts. The players selected in those drafts can be broken down as follows.

• 4 QMJHL, 3 Sweden, 3 USHL, 2 Mass. H.S, 1 CCHL
• Not a single player under 6’0 drafted.
• None of the players have yet to play in the NHL (several will)
• 6 D, 4 W, 2 C, 1G

What does all this mean when attempting to predict or mock the Senators draft?

Well nothing really.

There is an endless list of information to be considered. Teams do have biases and tendencies when it comes to drafting. One factor is a scout’s ability to “pound the table” or argue in favor of a player from his specific region. There is also a growing trend that is beginning to show; drafting players in the later rounds from leagues outside the CHL. The reasoning for this is player control. When a CHL player is drafted an NHL team has two years to make a decision on whether or not to sign the player to an Entry Level Contract. A player from Europe, NCAA, USHL, BCHL, or Prep School team come with a four year window to evaluate the player before losing its rights.

Ryan Wagman wrote a piece over at Hockey Prospectus reviewing teams’ tendencies and draft history. In a perfect world a team is drafting the best player available inside the first three rounds of the draft. In round four through seven, when players are more of a gamble and luck becomes a major factor, this is the time when organisational needs can become a deciding factor.

A common mistake from teams is drafting players based on current roster construction and need. For example, the Oilers should not take a defender with the fourth pick just because that is their weakest area on the NHL roster. The likelihood of that specific player selected at fourth overall making an immediate impact is minimal; this is where a team just needs to obtain the best player/asset available and then make roster adjustments afterwards.

The 2016 NHL draft looks to have clear tiers/groupings of players. There are two groups of forwards at the very top, a group of defenders, followed by a mix of defenders and forwards to round out the top 13-14 players.  At pick 15 the draft takes a significant dip. Players in the tier after Ottawa’s selection can range from pick 15-40 depending on the evaluator.  If The Senators select one of the players from tier one, two, or three this is a clear victory for the team. Selecting a player from the fourth tier is expected of the Senator’s; drafting a player beyond the fourth tier is a mistake in draft value and strategy. This preview will examine the players and group them into the area of the draft they can be expected to be selected from. It will provide a simple guide of which players may be available to Ottawa at pick 12. The preview will also look at some players to avoid at pick 12 and some potential second round value picks.

Ensure to check out Hockey Prospectus’ prospect coverage. It’s free of charge and is provided by 11 evaluators covering Canada, US, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, and Russia.  Team reports, mock drafts and full player reports can be found on the site.

Statistics are courtesy of Prospect-Stats.com, EliteProspects.com, and Hockeydb.com. Special thanks to Corey Blenkhorn for his adjusted scoring spread sheet to assist with the final rankings.

TIER ONE

The first three players are unanimously placed in the top three; however where those players are slotted within those top three spots can vary depending on the evaluator. There are also rumors circulating about pick number three possibly being available in a potential trade. These are the only three players who are unquestionably ready to play in the NHL for 2017-2018.

Auston Matthews
Team:  ZSC Lions

Position: C
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.02 / 194

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
36	24	22	46	6

Auston Matthews is the favorite to join the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 2016-2017 NHL season. According to some scouts inside the Leafs organization, the Leafs would prefer to have both William Nylander and Mitch Marner play on the wing. If the thoughts of scouts inside and around the Leafs ring true, then expect the Leafs to be looking for a centre to fill out their ideal roster.

Matthews is a number one centre and a franchise changing player. There is little to be critical of when evaluating his skill set and in addition to that his pformance in the Swiss league was outstanding. Matthew possesses an elite shot. He is able to drag or push the puck during his release to gain an advantage over the opposing goalie. The most important characteristics of a shot are its accuracy and its release. Matthews reaches the top scores level with both. The 1-3-1 powerplay is becoming common across the NHL. Teams are looking for a player with an unstoppable one timer to act as the focal point when having the man advantage. Matthews resembles Steven Stamkos at times. When he is situated at the side of the net on his off wing, approximately 10-12 feet from the net Matthews can use that quick release, and accurate shot to beat goalies before they can gain position.

Matthews also has an ability to draw players towards him. His vision paired with his patience creates space for his teammates to make plays. He will use slight changes of direction or pace to force defenders off their path, then using his puck skills will beat a defender with a deke, pass or a snap shot to create a scoring chance.

 

Patrick Laine

Team: Tappara
Position: LW/RW
Shoots: Right
Height/Weight: 6.04 / 209

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
46	17	16	33	6

Patrick Laine is unquestionably the most electrifying player in this year’s entry draft. Whether he is on or off, Laine rarely fails to entertain. It is expected that Laine will join Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor in Winnipeg to form a left side that could one day be the best in the NHL.

Laine is a goal scorer in its truest form. His ability to seek open space and position himself to create passing lanes allows him to utilize the best shot in the draft. The velocity, release and accuracy of his shot all score 75-80 on the 20/80 scoring scale. His shot selection is very simple; if he has an opportunity to shoot he is taking it. Prospect-Stats.com has a great feature which displays a player’s shot location heat map, as seen on Laine’s map there is a preference to shoot from his off wing in and around the faceoff dot. It will be interesting to see how long it takes Laine to adjust to the smaller ice given the space he’s accustomed to on European ice. Any adjustment will be made easier thanks to his lightning quick release.

His speed and acceleration are much closer to average than the rest of his skill set. Laine has good balance and strength on his edges. However there is still room for improvement in his balance and strength. It is rare but there are times where Laine will slip or stumble while attempting to execute a side to side or change of pace maneuver. Once he has fully grown into his large frame he could become even more elusive. Despite the occasional slip he has a great ability to make sudden changes in direction. He also uses body position effectively to protect the puck or force defenders into vulnerable situations.

Laine is creative and very aware of his surroundings. The 6’4 winger has as plethora of dekes at his disposal to create a scoring chance. He is able to create plays from difficult situations and can dominate control of the puck. There are several examples of the Finnish national player dominating puck control during his time against men with Tappara. He is able to receive and transition poor passes from his teammates up ice. Once in the offensive zone Laine becomes the most dangerous player available in the 2016 NHL draft.

 

Jesse Puljujarvi
Team: Karpat
Position: RW
Shoots: Right
Height/Weight: 6.03 / 201

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
50	13	15	28	22

A personal favorite,  Jesse Puljujarvi is a complete player who does everything very well. There are some scouts who believe that he could eventually transition to the centre position. Given his hockey awareness and skill set it is definitely an attainable goal. He lacks the offensive upside of Matthews or Laine but is much better defensively and with puck possession than the other two players. The two-way game from Matthews or Laine is strong and Puljujarv’s offensive upside does not come close enough to push him up into the first or second ranking. This does not in any way indicate that the WJHC Gold medalist lacks an offensive ability.

Puljujarvi is an elite skater in every sense. His acceleration, technique, transitional skating, and top speed all score 65 or above. It is a thing of beauty to watch him exploding through the neutral zone and beat a defender wide or up the middle and drive the net. What makes him so dangerous is his combination of anticipation along with his speed. He has the vision to see the play taking form before it develops. He begins his turn and accelerates before other players have adjusted to the change in play. Once he has gained a competitive advantage in from leading the play it is almost impossible to slow him down. He has the hands and puck skills to protect the puck and prevent a potential stick check. If the defending player decides that a stick check is going to be ineffective or that the big Fin has too much speed and needs to be slowed down then a physical battle will also most likely fail. He uses his 6’3 frame to keep the defending player at bay and is able to pivot or use touch on the puck while maintaining his already advantageous position.

One thing that gets over looked is just how good his shot is. Again living in the shadow of Laine and his magnificent shot, Puljujarvi has a shot that most would be envious of. His back hand, snap, slap, and one timer will allow him to score with the rest of the first line players in the NHL.

With all the rumors around the Blue Jackets and their desire to move out of the third pick, it’s hard to know which team will jump up. The cost for Ottawa to move from 12 to 3 would most likely be too rich. Don’t be surprised if Columbus shocks the world if they can’t move the third pick. Look for Logan Brown to be their desired target.

 

PROJECTED POTENTIAL SELECTIONS FOR PICKS 1-3

1. Toronto Maple Leafs – Auston Matthews
2. Winnipeg Jets – Patrick Laine
3. Columbus Blue Jackets – Jesse Puljujarvi

 

 

TIER TWO

The next tier is another group of forwards that may be split up based on some teams needing a defender (Edmonton?) or potential trades of pick four and five.  The tier of defenders will follow as this cluster of forwards rank higher on the board than the defenders.

 

Pierre Luc Dubois
Team: Cape Breton Screaming Eagles
Position: C/W
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.03 / 203

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
62	42	57	99	112

The biggest debates when discussing Dubois is what position will suit him best at the next level. How each team projects that position will definitely effect his draft position. . He started the season seeing significant time on the wing. At season’s end he was the Screaming Eagles number one centre on one of the best lines in the CHL.  Does a team like his versatility? Does a centre needy team pass for a player with a higher likelihood of playing centre? It is unlikely Dubois falls far but there is a path where he could drop to a draft slot that is attainable via trade for Ottawa

Dubois is not the fastest skater in the draft. He scores at average for speed and acceleration. His balance and agility are slightly above NHL average. His skating will not be the reason for his success. It will not hinder his development or limit his ceiling. The fastest climbing player in this year’s draft relies on his understanding of the game for success.  Fans in Ottawa have grown to love Mark Stone and his ability to pick pocket opponents and change the direction of play. It is common to see number 18 stealing the puck on the opposition’s side of the ice and creating offence off that turnover. This is not a player comparison just a notation on a similar skill.

Upon first evaluation of Dubois the scores were much lower than expected. After reviewing video, notes, and some conversations with other evaluators, Dubois’ scores were raised. When looking at his skill sets individually the scores are lower. Once his hockey sense is taken into account all the scores are raised. He always puts himself in the best possible position. He then uses his talent to produce points at a rate expected of a number one centre.

This does not mean that his shot, puck skills, or skating should be brushed aside. He has incredible patience when shooting. Once he decides it is time to release the puck the goaltender does not have time to reset his position. His accuracy and velocity are less impressive than the release but still will help him score 20-25 goals per season. When in a one-on-one situation he can move the puck from side to side quickly to get a defender turning, then uses his strength, balance and agility to open space and create a scoring opportunity.

Clayton Keller
Team: USNTDP
Position: C
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 5.10 / 170

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
23	13	24	37	14

The centre from the US national program may become the biggest regret of some NHL teams. If he falls to the end of this tier or past any of the defenders in the next group a franchise or two may be crying in a corner come 2018. The only things keeping Keller from becoming the unquestioned fourth pick overall are his Height/Weight numbers. For perspective on how good Keller’s production was during his time in the development program, some comparable are Auston Matthews, Jack Eichlel, Phil Kessel, and Patrick Kane. Not a bad list to be mentioned in. It is unlikely that Keller has the same impact as any of those players, but it does indicate that he could be a top line centre. Worst case an elite number two. In the Hockey Prospectus mock draft I selected Keller seventh overall to the Arizona Coyotes because he provides them with that elite second line centre.

Keller may be the smartest player in the draft. He carries himself well in all three zones. His smooth skating and quick feet let him close in on puck carriers prior to an outlet pass being made. When approaching puck carriers he is patient when needed and takes the correct angle. Defensively he knows when to break position to pick up an uncovered opponent in a dangerous spot. Alternatively he also maintains position when it is called for. Keller struggles when confronted with attempting to physically separate a player from the puck. He has the agility and edges to avoid the players when in possession.

The top ten hopeful has the puck skills to make any defender look lost at times. He can force defenders to become flat footed thus he us is able to accelerate through the defence. Once in close he has the shot and finishing hands to complete the play.

Some mocks have Keller falling to picks 10-12. If there is a chance he falls to 12 and Ottawa adds him to Kyle Turris and Colin White at centre, suddenly they would have the depth to become a consistent playoff team and potential contender.

 

Matthew Tkachuk
Team: London Knights

Position: LW
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.01 / 194

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
57	30	77	107	80

The Memorial Cup hero had a very memorable year. 107 points in the regular season and 40 points in 18 playoff games allowed Tkachuk to generate some buzz that saw some evaluators wonder if he had passed Puljujarvi for the number three ranking. Scoring the overtime winner in the Memorial Cup final should catch the eye of scouts looking for “clutch players”. One narrative surrounding the Knights winger was that he was benefiting from playing with Christian Dvorak (Arizona Coyotes) and Mitch Marner (Toronto Maple Leafs). Most players would have a higher than expected point total if they found themselves playing with two high caliber line mates. The son of Keith Tkachuk was not simply a passenger on this line. He is one of the premier playmakers available this year. Dvorak saw his goal numbers sky rocket in part because of Tkachuk’s presence.

The strongest part of the Scottsdale native’s game is down below the hash marks. Tkachuk’s short passing game resembles a style not too different from the San Jose Sharks. He is very creative when setting up plays in the offensive zone. He is patient and methodical in his approach. He is calm when under pressure and will wait for lanes to open. His line mates often were provided with passes that allowed them to easily tap the puck across the goal line. His favorite spot to distribute these passes is below the goal line on the left side of the ice.

He has good speed and it does force defenders to back off and allow him to enter the zone with little difficulty. If and when a player steps up to challenge him on an entry he is able to assess which avenue provides the best odds of a successful zone entry. He can carry it past the challenger, make a simple chip, or make an accurate pass to one of his teammates to break across the blueline.

Yes, his father did have an influence on his game. He can be a pest on the ice and is confident in all situations. He has the versatility to play in just about any style of game. It could be slow trapping style, fast paced game where scoring chances are exchanged or a physical game reminiscent of the Sens versus Flyers in March of 2004.

 

Alexander Nylander

Team: Mississauga Steelheads
Position: RW/LW
Shoots: Right
Height/Weight: 6.00 / 184

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
57	28	47	75	18

With his skating scores coming in at average to slightly below, the Swedish born winger uses his brilliant hockey mind and elite puck skills to create offense. He can make a move from any location on the ice – idling or while in motion. His skills allow him to make a move in any direction as well.The blood lines are strong with Nylander. The son of Michael and brother of William, Alexander projects to be the third in the household to become an NHLer. He is a gifted player who self admittedly is not the greatest skater. Nylander may be the most likely of this tier to fall past the three defenders. Given his position and skating, teams may look to a centre instead of the electric Nylander.

When Alex spoke about his skating being an area that requires improvement, at the same time he spoke highly of his shot. He is correct in his assessment. He prefers to use his elite wrist shot when available. He had 178 shots on net this year and scored on almost 16% of those shots. The Steelhead sees time on the point during the powerplay. His even dispersal of shot locations is shown in his heat map. He has the Robin Hood accuracy to combine with velocity and Billy the kid like release. His slap shot and one timer also are dangerous and can find the back of the net. That is why the Steelhead plays on the point during the powerplay.

 

TIER THREE (A.K.A TIER 2.5)

Olli Juolevi
Team: London Knights
Position: D
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.02 / 183

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
57	9	33	42	16

Olli Juolevi will join his two fellow countrymen, giving Finland three players selected in the top ten of the draft. Juolevi is the safest pick amongst the defenders. He has had an incredible year. He won the Memorial Cup with the London Knights and a gold medal in the WJHC. With both teams he had to play second or even third fiddle to Patrick Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi with Finland in the WJHC and to Matthew Tkachuk and Mitch Marner with the London Knights. He was a critical part to both teams success. It’s not a coincidence both teams reached the pinnacle. 

If any fans in Ottawa have seen Dante Salituro play for the Ottawa 67s, you are aware of the speed which he plays at. Juolevi was able to catch Salituro on a breakaway and disrupt the scoring chance. Not only does he have plus speed, but he has agility to match. He escapes pressure better than any other defender available. He is able to pivot with the puck while looking up ice for the best available passing option. He is a puck mover of the truest form. He will not put up huge goal totals, but he will get a team heading in the right direction in no time at all and in today’s NHL that is the most valuable type of defender.

Juolevi may never be a Norris trophy winner or a team’s top defender but he will be their second or third best. He can play on the top powerplay, penalty kill and play in any situation at 5 vs. 5. There is almost a zero percent chance Juolevi makes it past Buffalo at pick eight.

               

Jakob Chychrun
Team: Sarnia Sting
Position: D
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.02 / 194

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
62	11	38	49	51

Earlier this season I wrote a full report on Chychrun, it can be found here. 

Chychrun does have ties to the Ottawa area, and everyone knows what that means. The nephew of Luc Richardson, Chychrun also has family living in the city. Some rumblings for decision makers in the NHL suggest that the Sarnia Sting captain will likely fall outside of the top 10 picks. It is hard to imagine Colorado passing on the former OHL first overall pick. So unless one of the defenders that will be profiled later emerge as a surprise selection it is unlikely that Chychrun will be available at pick 12. Chychrun’s range from his ceiling to his floor is very large. Think Alex Pietrangelo to Zack Bogosian.  He has the potential to be a franchise number one defender or a fourth or fifth defender who can help on the powerplay.

The reason that he was discussed as the second overall pick in the fall is his skating and size combination. His body control while rushing up the ice is fun to watch. Defenders move out of the way and Chychrun just maintains his current path. How does he accomplish this? There are two things he does to cause this to occur. The first is a subtle shoulder movement; the second is a change of speed. He can explode into full speed on demand. He will come in fast then slow down then accelerate again to disrupt the defenders timing.  He gets the puck up the ice at an incredible speed. He can get the puck up the ice, through passes or carrying the puck as mentioned.

The defensive side is the big concern for scouts. He struggles with gap control and timing. He will show the attacking player exactly how much space there is to deke or pass. He gets caught flat footed with his stick stretched out. It is very difficult for him to adjust once he establishes that position. His defensive deficiencies are the reason that Chychrun needs time to develop. Inside the proper system Chychrun could reach the potential that lies beneath the pure talent that is shown. If his new team attempts to rush Chychrun into the NHL , it will severely lower the ceiling.

 

Mikhail Sergachyov
Team: Windsor Spitfires
Position: D
Shoots: Right
Height/Weight: 6.02 / 205

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
67	17	40	57	56

It has been a fast and exceptional rise for Mikhail Sergachyov, he started playing hockey at the age of 11, he is the youngest player to win CHL Defensemen of the year, led all defencemen in the OHL in goals, was first team Al- Rookie, and OHL First Team All Star. So to say that his development has advanced at an accelerated pace is an understatement. 

The Russian born CHLer has talent most only dream of. He has the best shot of all the defenders in the draft.  His skating ability scores high in all categories. His puck skills are impressive and are rare for a defender of his size.

The real question surrounding the Spitfire defender is if his average hockey sense is because of his short service time or just a lack of understanding. There are occasions where he is almost too casual on the ice. Aware that he can do almost anything on the ice he can at times look like he is not putting out 100% effort or playing with a sense of urgency.

Sergachyov is the player I selected for the Senators at pick 12 during the Hockey Prospectus mock draft. I do believe he is worth the risk. Despite having the lowest floor of top three defenders, his upside cannot be ignored. Envisioning his left hand shot aside Erik Karlsson on the top powerplay unit is pure happiness. Looking at his goals scored heat map, you can see how Karlsson and Sergachyov would make a formidable duo. The majority of his goals came from his off side at the point. But would the Sens consider drafting a Russian?

PROJECTED POTENTIAL SELECTIONS FOR PICKS 4-8

4. Edmonton Oilers – Pierre Luc Dubois
5. Vancouver Canucks – Matthew Tkachuck
6. Calgary Flames – Clayton Keller
7. Arizona Coyotes – Olli Juolevi
8. Buffalo Sabers – Mikhail Sergachyov

 

TIER FOUR (THE PLAYERS WHO WILL MOST LIKELY BE AVAILABLE)

If any player mentioned in the earlier sections becomes available the Senators should be selecting him without hesitation. They still need to select the best player available regardless of position or the player’s origin of birth.

Logan Brown
Team: Windsor Spitfires
Position: C
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.06 / 220

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
59	21	53	74	40

The son of 67’s coach Jeff Brown, the Spitfires centre showed substantial growth in the latter part of the season.  He responded to criticism that he was playing on the perimeter too often and wasn’t using his shot enough. During the second half Brown began to carry the puck and drive towards the net. His second half improvement included scoring seven goals during 11 games in February and another five in the eight games played during March. His shot totals also increased each month. In the first month he put 19 pucks on net in nine games. In the final month of the season he had 23 in the eight games.

Given his large frame Logan Brown does a good job of carrying the load up and down the ice. He is not a burner by any stretch of the imagination. Where he shines is on the edges of his skates when protecting the puck down low in the offensive zone. His ability to lean and maintain his speed while exiting the corners allows him to create scoring opportunities for his teammates. It is not uncommon for players of his bulk to lack top speed or a burst during acceleration. Brown is on the higher end for both when comparing to other players his size. His speed and acceleration become average to below average when comparing to all other eligible players.

Brown would be a nice fit in Ottawa. He and Kyle Turris have a similar affection for puck distribution. Brown makes those around him better by using his vision to create lanes and find players in open space. He is capable at both ends. He is not an overly physical player despite his size, but it is very difficult to veer him off his path or separate him off the puck. The big man can be expected to slot in at a number two centre position.

 

Jake Bean
Team: Calgary Hitmen
Position: D
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.01 / 172

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
68	24	40	64	28

Like Logan Brown, Jake Bean used a torrid second half scoring pace to help raise his stock for the draft. Bean is a shifty and elusive player. He is both offensively gifted and offensively minded. You can see the enjoyment in his face as he is playing. He is exciting to watch once he has the puck. He has different moves that he uses to escape different types of pressure. He has the skating ability that is required and the anticipation to adjust on the fly.

He has a neat trick when taking shots. He will draw a defender in then deke and shoot. When he shoots in these situations he sometimes places the shot on net, almost like a pass. He will utilize all four corners of the net when placing his shot. When he decides to use his regular shot it is very strong. He has the release, velocity and accuracy to produce goals in the NHL. Bean does a good job of deciding what is the appropriate time and situation to use either shot.

He controls the gap well when protecting the blueline against zone entry. He does not give away angles to the inside and turns at the proper time to force the attacking player down below the net. He needs to add strength to improve on his board play.

There is a very good chance that Bean becomes the best defender in the draft. His adjusted scoring is better than all of the other projected first round defenders. Combine that with a very strong scouting score and he has the recipe for success. Adding bean with Chabot would give the Sens two outstanding puck moving defencemen to help rebuild the back end.

 

Tyson Jost
Team: Penticton Vees
Position: C
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 5.11 / 180

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
68	24	40	64	28

Tyson Jost is a smaller player and he plays in the BCHL. So he was somewhat unknown and did not receive much press during the season. Thanks to a break out performance at the World U18 Championships Canada’s top scorer was able to get himself on the radar of fans and confirm his status with NHL scouts.

He out thinks his opponents and uses his creativity to score. He has good speed and quick hands. He is able to process the play and react accordingly. If and when his process was incorrect he will work to correct his mistake. The junior star does not shy away from playing at the net, he will go after rebounds, wait for a pass, or drive the net from the wing or up the middle.

 

The Vees’ centre has been tied to the Senators in several mock drafts. While this would be a nice selection for the Senators, Jost does not most likely does not become one of Ottawa’s two best centers.

 

PLAYERS TO AVOID AT PICK 12

Michael McLeod
Team: Mississauga Steelheads
Position: C
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.02 / 185

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
57	21	40	61	71

The first attribute that is mentioned in any discussion about McLeod is his skating. The Steelhead centre flies up and down the ice. He unfortunately can leave his teammates behind at times due to his style and utilization of his speed. It is his biggest weapon. He has good hands and is able to make moves at his high speed.

He has a competitive nature. He will not give up on any play. Whether he is on the defensive side or offensive side of the puck McLeod will put forth the effort. The downside is that McLeod does not anticipate the play very well. So for all the gifts he is given, they are diminished because they are not used properly.

McLeod uses all of his big body to protect the puck or to separate the opposition. He can lean against players and force them to go in the direction of his choosing or just cleanly separate them from the puck as well.

McLeod’s metrics also don’t project him to be a top line player. He will be a middle six player in the NHL. Even though he is listed as a centre, he is best suited as a winger in the NHL. If McLeod is available at pick 12 it would be a mistake for Ottawa to select him given the other players available and their higher projected point potential versus McLeod.

 

Julien Gauthier
Team: Val d’Or Foreurs
Position: RW
Shoots: Right
Height/Weight: 6.04/224

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
54	41	16	57	24

Julien Gauthier is very comfortable skating with his large frame. His technique is strong. He has an effective stride pushing the full length of his leg. Rocket, laser, howitzer, cannon, and bullet are all descriptions broadcasters will use to describe Gauthier’s shot. All of these descriptions would be fair and accurate.

While flying down the wing looking towards driving the net, he not only wreaks havoc by using his massive frame to block defenders from getting access to the puck, but by using simple but effective stick handling manouvers. He is a dominant net presence; finding loose pucks off of the rebound and getting them past a vulnerable goaltender. His low assist total will define his frequency of passing. He has good passing skills. He will not create the offence for his team mates.

Gauthier struggles defensively and inside the neutral zone. His anticipation and sense of direction are areas of concern. He is far too often late to turn up with a break out or into open space for a defender to lead him in the direction of the opposition goal. Once he has received the pass and is on the attack, there a couple bad habits that arise. First is a general lack of awareness for his teammates positioning. Confirmed by his minimal assist total, he rarely distributes the puck effectively. Whether it be a no look dump of the puck that is out of the range of a line mate or just a straight drive to the net, puck distribution is not a reason to select this power forward. Surprisingly for a player of his magnitude, Gauthier does not see regular time on the penalty kill. However, due to his size, speed, and style of play he draws more penalties then he takes.

Gauthier is the type of player the Senators have liked in the past. Good size, good character, and likes to play in the trenches. Gauthiers low assist totals and poor hockey sense indicate a potential bust.

 

Logan Stanley
Team: Windsor Spitfires
Position: D
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.07 / 225

Stats

GAMES PLAYED	GOALS	ASSISTS	POINTS	PIMS
64	5	12	17	103

Stanley gets some unwarranted praise for his strong skating ability. Reports from other evaluators are that the towering defender has skating ability over and above what is expected from a player who stands 6’7.  He does skate forward in a straight line very well with good speed. The down side is that he does not pivot or transition well. Those are the important aspects of skating for defenders.

Stanley has a big heavy shot. It is not a shot that will beat many NHL defenders but it does have a lot of power behind it.

A defender who has the competitive advantage of a reach like Stanley’s should use it better than he displays. He is often caught leaning forward and lunging towards the puck. Instead he should be drawing the player in close then using a poke check or his physical advantage to win back possession.

Stanley should not be selected until the third round. Senator’s fans have seen firsthand what a large defender who lacks awareness. For that reason alone Ottawa should just avoid selecting Logan Stanley.

PROJECTED POTENTIAL SELECTIONS FOR PICKS 9-12

1. Montreal Canadians – Logan Brown
2. Colorado Avalanche – Jakob Chychrun
3. New Jersey Devils – Tyson Jost
4. Ottawa Senators – Jake Bean

 

Second Round Value

Most value picks beyond the first round in the NHL draft revolve around production and biases.

Cam Dineen – North Bay Battalion

Cam Dineen has the highest adjusted scoring projection of all defensemen in the draft. His passing is elite. He is not the fastest skater, but has the transitional skating attributes required to avoid fore checkers and maintain body position while defending.

Adam Fox – USNDT

Similar to Dineen, Fox is an undersized highly productive defender. Fox’s ability to stick check attackers, gain control of the puck then change the direction of play in a heartbeat.

Cameron Morrison – Youngstown Phantoms

Morrison is big winger who produced huge point totals in the USHL. He is an average skater whit a good shot and good hands. One of the youngest players in the draft Morrison still has lots of development ahead of him.

Jordan Kyrou- Kingston Frontenacs

Kyrou is a dynamic forward from the OHL. His skating is strong and can be made even better with a slight technical tweak. Kyrou has the potential to become a top six forward.

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If the Ottawa Senators and Pierre Dorion can walk out of Buffalo with Jake Bean or Tyson Jost and one of the value picks in the second round, they will have continued to build on a very good 2015 NHL draft class.