Each week through the 2013 season, I'll attempt to convince myself I should give it all up and scrape by from week to week, living in a $300-a-month apartment in the worst part of Las Vegas as a professional gambler. And, each week, I'll convince myself, no, it will be much worse than that. A $300-a-month spot would be a PALACE.
Should you choose to ride with me on this journey of doubling our money, might I remind you of THIS:
Last season: 52-44-1 (.536)
STILL ROLLING IN THAT SWEET CASH.
Week 1 Picks
Doing these a day or two early due to my questionable life decision to go to the Ole Miss game in Nashville.
North Carolina at South Carolina (-12)
Writers around the South Carolina program and some of the older SEC writers will always say that if Spurrier is more talkative than usual, perhaps even FRISKY, during the offseason, he feels pretty good about his team. Based on the past few months, highlighted by the shirtless show at practice, I think he's in that territory.
However, it's year two of the Larry Fedora era at North Carolina, an era that has seen a loss to Wake Forest, wins over Virginia Tech and Miami, and losses to Duke and Georgia Tech (gave up 68 points to Tech, who lost to MTSU by three touchdowns). So, you know, yeah, the ACC!
The key to this game is ignoring Spurrier's chatter about his team and Fedora's team with the capability to lose to and beat anyone in the ACC, and remember that it's a Thursday night, season-opening ESPN game. That means a South Carolina false start penalty on the first drive, Steve Spurrier nearly drowning in his own anguish, and a low score where South Carolina farts around just a little bit less than the other team for a win.
Which means, we take North Carolina and the points.
Ole Miss (-3) at Vanderbilt
OH THE DREAD, SPRINKLED WITH EXCITEMENT. For some stupid reason, I decided to go to this game. I blame that decision on it being sometime in June, being terribly bored, and saying, "SURE WOULD BE FUN TO BE AT THE OPENER. LET'S SEE WHO I CAN CONVINCE TO GO WITH ME."
What a terrible idea. I also blame my friends who are going with me for not stopping this madness. Had they been true friends and not enabled my delusion, I'd be watching this game at home instead of in a stadium hundreds of miles from my house, with sums of monies invested in a trip that is going to drive me dangerously close to the brink of insanity and/or some sort of physical breakdown.
I should be having this breakdown at home where I am free to lay face-down on the floor after 3 1/2 hours of agony without judgment or some uniformed person asking me, "Sir, are you alright?"
As for the actual game, much like last year, if Ole Miss doesn't turn it over and scores touchdowns instead of field goals, they will win. Last year, they got the turnovers right (zero), but kicked field goals after reaching the Vanderbilt 5, 11, and 10-yard lines.
This allowed Vanderbilt to stay in the game, and eventually make a few big plays against a bad secondary (which still exists!) to win. I lack the faith (SAVE ME, FREEZUS) to believe Ole Miss can do fewer dumb things than a team that isn't going to do that many dumb things. Vandy and the points.
Alabama (-20) vs. Virginia Tech (Atlanta)
A conservative, plodding offense, coordinated by the very man who coordinated Auburn's metal canoe with a broken outboard motor offense, facing a defense that consumes offenses of this nature without bothering to chew. GODSPEED, VIRGINIA TECH.
Alabama to cover.
Kentucky (-4.5) vs. Western Kentucky (Nashville)
http://youtube.com/watch?v=xX0_KCpfDIQ?rel=0
I shall never tire of it. And it was also great seeing Morgan Newton running around, though it was sad not seeing him throw a pass to the ground or the other team.
WKU and the points.
Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State (-12.5)
Things Mississippi State has to replace:
-Top 4 wide receivers
-Top 2 corners (both now in the NFL)
-Starting strong safety
-4 defensive linemen (not all starters)
-Leading tackler
The good news is most of the offensive line is back, which should give Tyler Russell adequate time to hand the ball off or hold the ball until he is sacked or crushed as he throws. I'm very interested to see what Mullen does with his offense that isn't suited for Russell, yet Dak Prescott is sort of like early Chris Relf in that when he's in, he's not going to throw, which teams eventually learn and then limit Prescott's effectiveness.
And of course, the defense was a hot mess in the last 6 games of the season, so that kinda needs to be figured out REAL SOON. I am of the belief that if Oklahoma State doesn't turn it over, they can name their score. Oklahoma State to cover.
Rice at Texas A&M (-26.5)
SO MANY writers are desperately waiting to hit "send" on their story of how Manziel's offseason has wrecked Texas A&M's season. All they need is that one loss. Doesn't matter if he throws for 750 yards and 9 touchdowns, IT'S HIS FAULT YOU SEE. SHOULDA WATCHED MORE PUBLIC TELEVISION.
A&M to cover.
Toledo at Florida (-23.5)
Really looking forward to the Florida offense taking the field this year. I could be expecting too much out of them, but I think there's a good chance Will Muschamp sweats blood at least once while they're on the field. Toledo and the points.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas (-10.5)
BERT gets his first dose of non-real, non-American football in 2013, as the Ragin' Cajuns are going to do everything on offense that makes BERT upset. They'll go fast, throw WAY too much, not play 11 tight ends, and not have enough waddle to them.
BERT is going to hate this game. Lafayette and the points.
Washington State at Auburn (-16)
If you missed the news, Auburn's starting quarterback will be Nick Marshall, a former Georgia defensive back, who found his way to Auburn via JUCO. I didn't know this until a friend told me, but Marshall at the JUCO level last year threw 20 interceptions. 20! That's a two, immediately followed by a zero.
And his first practice with Auburn was in August. Now, he may turn out to be fine, but I raise ALL THE EYEBROWS when I see Jevan Snead interception numbers at the JUCO level. Cougars and the points.
Georgia (-1.5) at Clemson
I only take Dabo and points when he's matching wits with someone else who can mangle a game at a terrifying pace. Like say, Les Miles in last year's Chick-fil-A bowl. Georgia to cover.
LSU (-4) at TCU
Have Les Miles and Gary Patterson finished discussing which players the other should or shouldn't play? Even if Jeremy Hill plays, LSU will find a way to give away his carries to other running backs who aren't averaging 10 yards a carry or the arm of Zach Mettenberger. LSU to cover.
One other solid bet includes the new Cam Cameron LSU offense looking pretty much like the LSU offense from last year, and a decent bet is that Les Miles will run to the wrong sideline like he did against Oregon in Dallas two years ago.
Austin Peay at Tennessee
Murray State at Missouri
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