Exploring What Happens To Alabama In The Game Following The LSU Game*

*Since 2010. Trying to keep this fairly recent, but also because I am lazy and don’t want to do all the elementary school math this requires.

The talk among the people this week, though it’s only Tuesday (HURRY UP, WEEK) so things could change, is will Alabama be able to recover after yet another physical game with LSU. There was even a stat floating around this morning on Twitter that said Alabama has not scored a first-quarter touchdown in the game after LSU in 13 years (I assume it’s true because, again, lazy and it sounds good; it also should be noted Nick Saban is 5-2 at Alabama after LSU games).

Now, it’s much easier to fire off rhetorical questions about Alabama’s ability to recover than it is to actually look and see if that thought has held true over the previous few years, because we’re all busy and would rather waste time trying to assemble the best Houston Nutt pictures for a collage called ‘Too Many Hooties’, which is riding the wave of ‘Too Many Cooks’ (or maybe that’s just me). But, like my motivation for most things, the irritation level of hearing this has reached a point where I have to find out if it’s true or not so I can get back to my collage without any distractions.

To get to the bottom of this question that apparently bothers no one else, I took a look at Alabama’s last four games after playing LSU. Mainly, I focused on total yards, yards per play, defensive yards, defensive yards per play, and turnovers. I also included the number of plays Alabama’s defense was on the field against LSU the week before each of these games.

THE NUMBERS:

2010
Alabama 30, Mississippi State 10 (Tuscaloosa)
Previous week: Lost 24-21 to LSU (Baton Rouge)
Total plays for defense against LSU: 65
Total yards vs. MSU: 452
Yards per play vs. MSU: 7.66
Turnovers: 2
Total yards allowed vs. MSU: 299
Yard per play allowed vs. MSU: 4.15
Turnovers created: 2

2011
Alabama 24, Mississippi State 7 (Starkville)
Previous week: Lost 9-6 to LSU (Tuscaloosa)
Total plays for defense against LSU: 58
Total yards vs. MSU: 386
Yards per play vs. MSU: 5.67
Turnovers: 1
Total yards allowed vs. MSU: 131
Yard per play allowed vs. MSU: 2.22
Turnovers created: 0

2012
Texas A&M 29, Alabama 24 (Tuscaloosa)
Previous week: Won 21-17 over LSU (Baton Rouge)
Total plays for defense against LSU: 85
Total yards vs. TAMU: 431
Yards per play vs. TAMU: 6.63
Turnovers: 3
Total yards allowed vs. TAMU: 418
Yard per play allowed vs. TAMU: 5.43
Turnovers created: 0

2013
Alabama 20, Mississippi State 7 (Starkville)
Previous week: Won 38-17 over LSU (Tuscaloosa)
Total plays for defense against LSU: 54
Total yards vs. MSU: 383
Yards per play vs. MSU: 5.89
Turnovers: 4
Total yards allowed vs. MSU: 197
Yard per play allowed vs. MSU: 3.39
Turnovers created: 1

A few things jumped out at me when I was going through these. One, the Alabama offense does not experience the physical hangover at all. It has averaged 413 total yards in these four games.

Two, the turnovers, which helps explains why Alabama has only averaged 24.5 points in these four games, despite pretty good total yardage numbers (amazingly, #AlabamaKickers went 7 of 9 on field goals). Ten total turnovers from the offense, while the defense has only come up with three, leaving a rage-filled taste of a -7 turnover differential in Nick Saban’s mouth.

As for the Alabama defense, I know the Mississippi State teams listed here were not great offensive teams, but the Alabama defense did what they always do to average offensive teams – DESTROY THEM WITHOUT MERCY by giving up just 262.3 yards/game and 13.3 points/game. The only sign of trouble for the defense was Johnny Manziel, who pretty much did what he did against everyone.

Throw in that the Alabama defense was on the field for 85 plays the week before, and it probably made things a little easier for him. And in that game, despite the points, yards, and Alabama turnovers, everyone forgets that Alabama had a first and goal on the A&M 6 with four minutes to play, before AJ McCarron threw an interception and all sorts of glee and IS THIS WHAT WE WANT COLLEGE FOOTBALL TO BE broke out across the land.

So to me, the untrained scientific eye, there doesn’t appear to be a standard LSU hangover issue for Alabama. The offense usually works pretty well, though turnovers have taken away from point totals, and the defense usually dominates.

The exception being the A&M game, which featured a really good offense and was a week after the Alabama defense faced a high number of plays. Which brings us to this week (DRAMATIC MUSIC).

Alabama’s defense faced 82 plays (56 of them runs) last weekend in Baton Rouge. And this Mississippi State offense is MARGINALLY more accomplished than previous State offenses.

Now, Dak Prescott is a very, very good player, though a Johnny Manziel he is not (as basically none are; also, Prescott is taller), but he brings more than enough ability to put points and yards on Alabama. So there are some similarities between 2012 and 2014, which could mean Alabama is in for lots of Nick Saban screaming at defenders and wildly throwing his arms around in no particular direction.

However, if Mississippi State wins, it’s not because of the yearly LSU hangover Alabama allegedly experiences. It’s because Mississippi State is a good team with a talented offense that could take advantage of a defense that may be on the tired side, while benefiting from an Alabama offense that will move the ball, but can’t stop giving it away.