It was a bye week for the USF Bulls, where Mike White struggled to enter doorways with accuracy.
Let’s get to it.
The Who: vs No. 19 East Carolina Pirates
The Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
The When: Saturday, October 11, 7:00 PM
ECU’s Run Defense
Surely you know the story by now: Marlon Mack is a pretty good freshman having a pretty good season in the face of woeful inefficiency from the Bulls’ passing attack. He’ll likely be charged with carrying the offense yet again.
Problem is, the Pirates are actually a pretty good run-stuffing unit. They’re 17th in the FBS right now at 106.4 yards per game and have held three of their five opponents to less than 2.9 yards per carry. Needless to say, giving a pretty good run defense the opportunity to tee off on a woefully one-dimensional offense is not the ideal situation for the Bulls.
Expect chaos and sadness, unless you’re a Pirates fan.
ECU’s Pass Defense
Somehow, this will be even worse. Sure, standout wide receiver Andre Davis, who missed the last four games with a bruised sternum, is back. He was the Bulls’ leading receiver for the last two seasons, after all.
Still, quarterback Mike White has got to get it to them and that has proven to be a gargantuan task so far this season. White’s 40 percent completion percentage is at the bottom of the barrel and he’s shown no real signs of improvement so far. The only thing the Bulls can really hope for is that the ground attack gets going and White doesn’t kill them with a turnover. He’s at least kind of okay at that, with just three interceptions on the year.
Expect the staff to limit just how many times he actually has to throw. They should try giving him easier throws, but it’s partially the fault of the receivers who get no separation. Maybe the return of Davis will change that, but this still feels gloomy at best.
ECU’s Run Offense
A bit overshadowed by the vaunted passing attack, the Pirates are actually a quality team on the ground and the duo of Breon Allen and Chris Hairston is something the Bulls will have to respect. Allen is the feature back, with 43 carries for 380 yards (8.8 yards per carry) and three touchdowns, but Hairston’s 6.9 ypc average on 26 carries is worth respecting.
With all the respect paid to the passing game, expect the duo to cut USF’s defense apart in large chunks, with at least one of them going over 100 yards on the day. The Bulls’ front seven has shown they aren’t consistent when it comes to stopping the run and not being able to focus on shutting down that aspect of the Pirates offense could take its toll.
ECU’s Pass Offense
DOOOOOOOOOOM.
No, but seriously, doom. USF averages 43.6 points and 583 total yards per game and that’s largely on the back of this passing game. Quarterback Shane Carden has been lights out, completing 64.8 percent of his passes for 1,879 yards (compared to White’s 561), 15 touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s a senior quarterback ripping apart the competition and looking to bring home the AAC title in the Pirates’ first year in the conference.
He’s alternated pretty evenly between wideouts Justin Hardy and Isaiah Jones. The duo has only combined for 75 catches, 932 yards and nine touchdowns on the year, so no big deal.
Like I said: DOOOOOOOOOOOOOM.
Three Things to Worry About
1.) DOOOOOOM. Seriously, their passing attack is pretty good.
2.) Ignoring the run game. The last thing the Bulls want to do is forget about the run game, because they’ll get shredded badly if they do.
3.) Ground struggles. Mack and the rushing attack is about all the offense has left at this point, so if they get shut down, this is going to get ugly early.
Three Things to Look Forward to
1.) Marlon Mack. He’s the only good thing about the offense, now and forever.
2.) The return of Andre Davis. Maybe this is the one thing that White needs to get on track and become a semi-competent quarterback. But also maybe not. Okay, probably not.
3.) They hang tight. I was predicting death and destruction against Wisconsin and USF hung in until late. Maybe we can hope for a similar result?
Prediction: ECU 38, USF 14
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