Team Summary:
They’re in the bottom-half of the league in almost every major statistical category, including PPG, FG%, 3PT %, threes per game, and Turnovers. The one positive side? Rebounding. They are a solid rebounding team centered around Vucevic, but still allow too many defensive rebounds (attribute that to poor shooting that got worse after JJ Redick left).
Strength:
Points in the paint. They rank 7th with 43.6 PPG in the paint, a solid 7 points better than last year when they finished in 27th place in this category. The sophomore Vucevic out of USC has impacted them more than most may think. Now they have a Small Forward in Tobias Harris who is averaging 8.7 rebounds per contest since arriving in Disney World, not to mention his 17.1 PPG.
Weakness:
Fastbreaks. That’s insane for a team that’s within the top 10 in rebounds. You know what that says to me? Jameer may not be the best fit right now. They are 2nd in the league in the percentage of their points coming from 2pt shots, dead last from the charity stripe, and in the bottom 10 in percentage of points from downtown. Remember that most of JJ Redick’s season was spent in Orlando. The guy literally only knows how to shoot threes and free throws. For a team that is dead last in free throw attempts for game, they could use another outstanding shooter who goes for a little contact basketball. One more nugget: they’re in the bottom five in steals AND blocks per game.
Team Needs:
Dynamic point guard, shooters, depth, organize frontcourt
Plan of Action:
Sign shooters. Then sign more shooters. Finally, sign a few more shooters. But on a serious note, this team needs help in precisely that area. Looking towards the draft, the Magic will be in a position to pick from the top 2 spots. Some experts think that Nerlens Noel is an obvious choice for most franchises; however this doesn’t seem to make sense for the Magic. Sure, I’m a bit biased as I’m a fan of Vucevic, but his numbers don’t lie. 13 PPG, 12 RPG and even a block each outing isn’t bad for the 16th pick in the 2011 draft. This kid will finish 2nd in the NBA in rebounding behind only Dwight Howard. He’s probably a better rebounder than Noel and some could argue as good as or better at scoring. His defense isn’t on the same level, but is still solid.
Cap Situation:
Currently, the Magic are looking at retaining about 53 million (give or take a few million) next year. However, they can unload half of Hedo Turkoglu and Al Harrington’s contracts next year for a savings close to 10 million. In addition to these moves (which should be made), Nelson should also be traded. I know that he’s played well but he’s 31 and has had a succession of injury problems. The big question: who will take the 16.6 million guaranteed over 2 years? The answer: Desperate teams like the Magic. This could lead to a trade for possibly a draft pick or two with a lottery team. The best hope would be to get a good shooter or veteran postman in return if they cannot get any good picks.
Draft Picks:
1st Round
My pick for the Magic: Trey Burke, he could immediately resolve some of their perimeter issues and would give the team a new leader and direction. Plus, the kid is a playmaker who has shined at the biggest moments. Had Marcus Smart not recently stated that he was returning to school, this would be a toss-up between Burke and Smart.
Outside shot: Victor Oladipo. A 60% FG shooter with a 44% clip from behind the arc while playing in the toughest conference this season deserves a look. Orlando would Immediately upgrade their 3pt shooting and defence with Oladipo.
2nd Round
The Magic traded away their 2nd round pick in the D12 trade, however they received one from Cleveland by trading Justin Harper in 2011. So who will be available around pick 50 this year? Try Peyton Siva, Michael Snaer, or Seth Curry. Peyton Siva is a born leader with a will to win. You want that on a team that hasn’t seen consistent winning for a few years. Snaer is a good shooter with a talent to take over at times. He won’t do that in the bigs but he can make an impact off the bench. Seth Curry is a microwave. He’s a less threatening, but legit, image of his father. He can come in and provide you crucial threes when the heat is on, which is something that’s been definitely missing this year for the Magic.
Free Agency:
For free agency, I think they have to go after some depth assuming they get the right guy to come in and start from the draft. If they go with a SG in the first round, look for the Magic to go out and possibly get a quality backup like DJ Augustin, or a cheaper option that can still shoot such as Jannero Pargo. If they go with a PG in the first round, look for the Magic to sign a specialist such as Kyle Korver. Who better than Korver to come in and lob some treys for some quick scores? Perennial defensive player of the year nominee Tony Allen will also be available. While that won’t solve any 3pt questions, he immediately upgrades your defensive backcourt when he’s on the court. Randy Foye might be another option to look into to come off the bench.
Outlook:
Overall, I’d say this summer will allow them to build up some key pieces and fill some holes, but They don’t have the cap space to make a huge splash in Free Agency and this draft isn’t loaded with game changers. If Next year, they can get a player like Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker that might be able to take them to the next level.
By Jon Elliott
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