Nick Denning explains why Bynum could be the best and worst lottery team free agent signing.
Nick Denning – ND
Question 1: What is one lottery team that could surprise this year and make a run at the playoffs?
ND: For me its Toronto. The team went 18-18 following the Rudy Gay trade, as opposed to 16-30 before the trade. As Zach Harper points out, Gay’s stronger play was a contributing factor:
Gay also played much better by increasing his shooting percentage by 1.7 percent, his 3-point percentage by 2.6 percent, his free throw percentage by 8.0 percent, his scoring average by 2.3 points, and his PER by 3.5.
Gay wasn’t the only one who played better though. DeMar DeRozan’s numbers jumped from 17.6 points to 19.1 after the All-Star break, playing the same amount of minutes but shooting an increased 46% from the field as opposed to 43% from before the break. If these two carry this type of scoring into this season, Toronto will have a potent scoring tandem.
The X-factor is Jonas Valanciunas. He started out last season slow, but showed considerable improvement the last three months of the season. Injuries held him back a bit, but he entered Summer League looking much stronger and was one the most dominant player in Vegas. The starting job is likely his next to Amir Johnson, of which the two were the best front court duo for Toronto last season. Should Valanciunas take the next step in his development, making the playoffs is certainly in the cards. Signing Tyler Hansbrough also helps, but what could hold this team back is a lack of depth beyond their top seven, eight players.
Question 2: Which lottery free agent do you see making the biggest impact this season, and which free agent signing could backfire?
ND: The answer to both parts of this question is Andrew Bynum. If he’s healthy and motivated enough, he’s one of the best three centers in the league. The early reports have been positive, but I still think its a wait and see situation until he’s actually logging NBA minutes. If all goes well, Cleveland could be a lot of fun to watch this year. Irving, Bynum, Jarrett Jack, Dion Waiters, Earl Clark, and a (hopefully) healthy Varejao? Yeah, there’s a lot to like. But if Bynum can’t stay healthy, or spends more time coming up with weird haircuts, it could backfire. The good news for Cleveland is that if it doesn’t work out, there’s really no foul on their part. Bynum is only guaranteed $6 million out of a possible $24 if he’s waived before January 7th of next year.
Question 3: Somewhat along the same lines as question one, what rookie could have a surprisingly good first season?
ND: I’m probably going to eat my words on this, but it could be Cody Zeller. He was impressive in Summer League, which always should have a aserick next to it, but what I liked was the array of moves he displayed scoring the basketball. He attacked the hoop from the three point line, ran the pick and roll/pop effectively, and showed some range from about 18 feet out. The worry for him is that he won’t be able to successfully score these ways against legitimate NBA defenders. Zeller has the athleticism but that alone doesn’t translate to success, he needs to get stronger, particularly as a post defender. Still, with the signing of Al Jefferson the Bobcats finally have a competent front court, and the pressure won’t all be on Zeller. Whereas previous Bobcats teams had no alternatives when their rookies hit the wall, they will this year, which in turn could ease Zeller’s transition into the NBA and make a for a surprisingly good first year.
Question 4: Most intriguing new head coach of a lottery team?
ND: Maurice Cheeks. He hasn’t been a head coach since 2009, but he’s spent the last four years as an assistant in OKC, winning plenty of games and surrounded by some of the brightest talent in the league. He’ll be coaching an intriguing team in Detroit, intriguing because they have the talent to be pretty good, but I question how the likes of Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings will work as both need to put up a lot of shots. This is where Cheeks comes in. Back when he coached Portland over a decade ago, he won 49 and 50 games respectively with teams lead by Rasheed Wallace, Bonzi Wells, an old Scottie Pippen, and a young Zach Randolph. That team, like the current Pistons, was full of characters, and I think Cheeks could coach Detroit to similar results this year.
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