James Plowright – Lottery Bigboard

The Lottery Mafia founder & Pro Basketball Draft writer James Plowright provides his own personal lottery Bigboard.

1)      Jabari Parker  PF – 18 years old; 6’8″; 241 lbs – Duke, Freshman

Parker is perhaps the most NBA ready of the top prospects, despite going through a bumpy start to conference play he has proved an elite offensive player. I am not convinced that Parker will be the best player to come out of this draft class, but at the same time he is probably the most likely to become an All Star.  What can Parker do to cement this position? If he is able to lead  Duke to a strong run in the NCAA tournament run while performing at a high level it will help convince teams he can perform under pressure and is a legitimate number one option.

2)      Joel Embiid  C – 19 years old; 7’0″; 240 lbs – Kansas, Freshman

Many people so far have said that Embiid, not Wiggins has been the most impressive freshman on the Kansas team this year, they are right. There have been many stories in recent years of project big men who haven’t lived up to expectation (Bismack Biyombo, Ekepe Udoh, Hasheem Thabeat) but Embiid looks different. He looks very composed on the court for someone who has only playing for two years, he displays good footwork and a soft touch around the rim. Embiid has all the tools to be an elite defender and has a fairly advanced offensive game, despite being a great help defender, he often gets in foul trouble as he is late on rotations after trying to recover from mistakes.

3)      Dante Exum  PG/SG – 18 years old; 6’6″; 188 lbs – Australian Institute of Sport, International

I am 100% on board the Exum bandwagon, I just flat out love his game and see him going a long way in this league. Call me crazy, but I see quite a lot of Derrick Rose in his game, like Rose he is lightning quick and finish at the rim over anyone. Exum hasn’t publicly stated his intentions whether to enter the draft yet, but Chris Mannix recently reported that he is extremely likely to declare. I think Exum will stay around 5 or 6 on most draft boards, but I have a feeling that he will quickly rise when he gets into team workouts.

4)      Andrew Wiggins  SF – 18 years old; 6’8″; 197 lbs. Kansas, Freshman

There was and still is a lot of hype over Wiggins, but most scouts were more excited about what he could become down the line than necessarily what he is right now. He isn’t shooting a great percentage from anywhere on the court and sometimes he is at times nonexistent on the offensive end, but his all round skill set and potential to be a two way play in the league keep him as an elite prospect. Personally, I don’t believe Wiggins’s attitude to be favourable for him to ever reach his potential, he doesn’t have that killer attitude that most stars have and that scares me a little. There is a difference between not demanding the ball on offence and being too passive, Wiggins falls into the latter category. He has never been a guy to put the team on his back and carry them through to a win in a close game, he simply does not have the mentality. Wiggins has struggled adjusting to playing on the perimeter, he actually looks for comfortable when is fighting for rebounds in the paint, in my opinion Wiggins is a long way off being a star calibre wing in the NBA.

5)      Marcus Smart  PG – 19 years old; 6’4″; 200 lbs – Oklahoma State, Sophomore

Say what you want about Smart’s shortcomings as a point guard, he makes up for it with his leadership, hustle and nose for the ball. He is still learning how to be a point guard and how to successfully get his teammates involved, his jump shot has only seen minor improvement since his freshman year and he is still turnover prone, that’s the bad news. The good news he is despite these deficiencies he is the best point guard in NCAA college basketball, it is scary to think how good he could be if he puts it all together. Whether he does or not? That is the questions scouts will be asking themselves, he certainly has the kind of attitude that would suggest he can.

6)      Julius Randle  PF – 19 years old; 6’9″; 248 lbs – Kentucky, Freshman

Randle started the year strong, but since then teams have adjusted how defend and he has struggled to bounce back. Randle is a monster inside and gobbles up rebounds on both ends for fun, he also brings a good array of post moves and inside scoring. Despite not being the most athletic guy, he has a big body which he used extremely well to create space for himself inside. I have Randle dropping to six (unlike most other big boards) as I am not so sure he will find it as easy to get his shot off in the NBA. Randle is more a below the rim player and very left hand dominant, I have a feeling he may have trouble getting his shot away against NBA calibre bigs who are just as big and as strong as him. When Randle puts the ball on the floor he has as a tendency to get out of control and be turnover prone, this suggests he may struggle to create his own offence unless he catches the ball incredibly deep in the post at the next level. If Randle could add a jump shot it would make him a much more dynamic player, as of right now he is slightly one dimensional, teams know what is coming as soon as he gets the ball.

7)      Gary Harris  SG – 19 years old – 6’4″; 210 lbs – Michigan State, Sophomore

Harris made a great decision to return to school last year, after playing much of last season with a nagging shoulder injury he has taken the 2013-14 season by storm. Harris has been asked to do everything this year for the Spartans and has been heavily involved in the offence, he has truly taken to this role. I understand that I am higher on Harris than most, I think he is more dynamic and versatile than the likes of Bradley Beal and Ben Mclemore, I see him being a great player down the line. Harris’s shooting percentages have been down, but he has been asked to do a lot, at the next level I feel he will be able to be more selective and increase his efficiency.

8)      Rodney Hood  SF – 21 years old; 6’8″; 201 lbs – Duke, Sophomore

Hood started the year well, but took his game to a whole other level when conference play started. With Parker’s struggles, Hood really stepped up for the Blue Devils. From what I have seen Hood doesn’t have the best handle and struggles to create his own offence, but his strength right now is being an elite catch and shoot player, he has displayed sneaky amounts of athleticism on straight line drives, but he doesn’t stray far out of his comfort zone. A player sticking to his strengths is fine, but I see the people above him on this list who have wider skill sets, for me versatility is a big part of moving up my big board. If Hood can better his ball handling skills and add a nice pull up jump shot to his game then he really would be one of the most versatile scorers in the draft.

9)      Dario Saric  PF – 19 years old; 6’10”; 223 lbs – Cibona Zagreb, International

Saric had a strong Eurobasket last summer averaging 5.5 points 3.2 rebounds and 1 assist in just 17 minutes per game, further adding to his impressive basketball résumé. Saric has terrific size for a wing standing at 6ft 10inc paired with an incredibly high basketball IQ, his main downside is his jump shot. Saric has steadily improved over the last few years, with NBA calibre coaching there is no reason to believe he can’t take his play to the next level and become one of the new great European players in the NBA.

10)   Noah Vonleh C – 18 years old; 6’10”; 242 lbs – Indiana, Freshman

Vonleh is a very intriguing prospect, I don’t think anybody is sure on what position he plays in the NBA, but there is so much talent there you can worry about that later. Vonleh’s physical profile is very impressive, he is a very athletic big who stands at just 6 ft 8inc, but has an enormous 7 ft 4inc wingspan. His combination of size, speed and length make him a potential elite defender at the next level, again his versatility impresses me.

11)   Aaron Gordon  PF – 18 years old; 6’9″; 212 lbs – Arizona, Freshman

The Aaron Gordon hype machine first started last year when he won MVP of the 2013 McDonalds All American game. Gordon has always been a fan favourite due to his incredible dunking ability, but his value as  player really comes on the defensive end. Gordon has so far lead Arizona to undefeated record and has been a key contributor, he has consistently defended the other team’s best player and proven his value as an elite defender. For those of you who have the Blake Griffin comparison in your head, don’t, Gordon is simply a different type of player and nowhere near advanced offensively. Gordon is still transitioning to playing the three and doesn’t really have an advanced perimeter game yet, his potential down the line is very high, just don’t expect him to be the most well rounded player during his rookie year.

12)   James Young  SF – 18 years old; 6’7″; 202 lbs – Kentucky, Freshman

Young’s numbers would be much improved if he was playing elsewhere, with Randle, the Harrison twins and Poythress on the team there are only so many touches to go round. However, Young has shown the potential to be a big time scorer, by displaying an all well rounded offensive game. You can put Young in the category of “held back by his situation”, I think he could be a sleeper in this draft class. One thing he need to focus on is his defensive focus, he seems a little laid back and isn’t always as zoned in as he should be, he has the tools to be an okay defender. Young looks to be a real X factor for this Kentucky team, if he can improve his shooting consistency he could continue to rise.

13)    Doug McDermott  PF – 22 years old; 6’8″; 223 lbs – Creighton, Senior

I know what you guys are thinking, what makes McDermott different to previous great college players such as Adam Morrison and Jimmer Fredette? Three things, 1) McDermott has an unbelievably high basketball IQ, being the son of a coach he has a complete understanding of the game and knows how to hide his deficiencies. 2) He is a senior, in many cases this works against a prospect, but for McDermott is an advantage. Teams know exactly what McDermott is now, expectations for his game at the next level are relatively realistic. 3) His experience with the USA Select team last summer greatly benefitted him, he held his own there and opened some eyes of NBA scouts. With Creighton also moving to the Big East he has come up against improved opposition and still managed to stay efficient. There is no hiding the fact that McDermott will be a role player for a team at the next level, but he will be a pretty special one.

14)   Sam Dekker  SF – 19 years old; 6’7″; 200 lbs – Wisconsin, Sophomore

Dekker rounds off my lottery big board, the Wisconsin system doesn’t play to Dekker’s strengths, but he still gets decent numbers. I feel scouts will fall into the trap of “What does Dekker do well”? People were saying the same things about Chandler Parsons when he was coming out of Florida, look at him now. Dekker has shown he can fit into any system, he is a decent defender and a very strong wing rebounder, he isn’t going to change franchise around, but is a nice complimentary piece for a team picking in the late lottery that have playoff aspirations next year. Dekker shot 39% from three as a freshman last year, but he could do with finding a little more consistency with his outside shooting (currently 33%)

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