How will the draft be affected if Jabari Parker stays at Duke?
Note: This article was written by Robert Judin. We are still in the process of acquiring usernames for all our writers. We hope to sort this out soon so our writers can be formally credited for their work. On that note, enjoy!
The phrase “sorry for Jabari” has been tossed around quite a bit during this NBA season, and it was for good reason. Jabari Parker has all the makings of an NBA superstar…when he ultimately decides to go to the NBA.
Though Andrew Wiggins was considered the consensus No. 1 overall pick back in August, as the season went on Parker all but cemented himself as the top pick because of his refined skills.
That is unless he chooses to re-up with Mike Krzyzewski for at least one more year. It’s safe to assume Parker’s sophomore season should sustain said star status – trying saying that three times fast. He’d be the top pick in the 2015 Draft for sure, so let’s paint that picture.
The NBA Draft Lottery is May 20, so the draft order has yet to be determined. However, if Parker enters the draft, it would put a burden upon whichever team lands that lucky Ping Pong ball.
If you’re an absolutist, you’d assume the Milwaukee Bucks will be atop the draft because they’ll have a 25 percent chance of getting that luxurious first pick. We’ve seen, time and time again, the odds of winning the lottery can be completely tossed out of the window.
Right no, this is all subjective because, again, the order is still up in the air. Though you cannot deny Parker’s absence from the draft has the potential to dramatically shake things up.
Some scouts would even hurl Julius Randle into the conversation for being the top pick, depending on who’s choosing of course. Marcus Smart and Dante Exum can be tossed in as well – for fun. But for the most part Wiggins, Parker and Embiid seem to be the most likely candidates to go first.
Imagine a scenario in which the Los Angeles Lakers (6.3 percent chance of winning) get the top pick. Joel Embiid would be a delightful prize for all their “hard” work this season, but Parker and Wiggins would definitely keep them up at night.
Now picture the Orlando Magic with that opportunity. I think it’s fair to ask the question: do they consider taking a point guard?
Orlando has found a solid nucleus with Victor Oladipo, Nikola Vucevic, and Tobias Harris. As of late, Kyle O’Quinn has even stepped up his play. Though some argue Oladipo can run point, I’m not convinced his strengths would be fully utilized running the offense. I think his best suited for a role in which he can look to score more than look to create for others.
He can pass, yes, but I believe he and his 4.2 assists a game can be more beneficial as a shooting guard.
Oladipo’s true shooting percentage is 51.4 percent. That would probably drop if he were directing traffic and looking to facilitate the Magic’s offense.
So, again, I think it’s fair to assume Orlando would consider Exum or Smart with that first pick – providing they don’t trade down.
If Parker stays at Duke, it’s more likely Orlando would go the point guard route. Obviously Wiggins would be a glamorous pick, but they have Oladipo. It all depends on if Rob Hennigan and his crew want to draft for need or potential.
The team with the top pick would, essentially, have a 33 percent chance of getting it right.
Those who compare the 2014 Draft to the 2003 Draft are out of their minds. LeBron James was going to be the first pick regardless of who was selecting first. If you want to talk about depth, okay. I can see four or five players turning into All-Stars one day. But Darko Milicic and Carmelo Anthony didn’t have a prayer to overtake James on draft day.
If Parker doesn’t declare for the draft, that opens the door for more scenarios. What if Orlando took Exum first overall? Now you’re talking about either Wiggins or Embiid falling past two. Maybe a team needs a power forward at three and Embiid drops to four or five because his back issues also come into play.
Of course the Embiid scenario can happen if Parker does leave, but it’s a tougher decision for the top- three teams picking.
Point is, Parker in the draft all but calls for him to go No. 1, but if he stays at Duke, the door is wide open. It’s fair to assume Wiggins would just step in and be the automatic top pick, but until the Ping Pong balls fall, we can’t know.
Wiggins’ phenomenal athletic ability and ceiling lost a bit of pizazz during the regular season and with a less-than-stellar showing and early exit in the NCAA Tournament. So, if you’re asking me, I wouldn’t put it past an NBA team to draft need over potential. It’s happened before.
Parker staying changes things.
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