Five teams from last year’s lottery are in the playoffs. How will they fare?
The goal for any lottery team is to get out of the lottery and never come back. Dan Gilbert knows what I’m talking about. Words are wind however, and while Gilbert’s Cavaliers failed to make the playoffs for the fourth year in a row, five teams from last year’s lottery are in the playoffs and will have little concern for the draft lottery next month. All five teams (Charlotte, Dallas, Portland, Toronto, and Washington) are lower seeds, but can any pull off upsets, or are all destined for first round upsets?
Charlotte (matched up against Miami)
Two weeks ago Charlotte looked primed to land the six seed after beating Washington in an overtime victory at the Verizon Center. Holding the tie breaker, destiny was in their hands, until a poor performance in Boston cost them a matchup against Toronto. Instead they face the Heat, going for their third straight championship, and frankly it doesn’t look good. Charlotte has lost fifteen straight games to Miami, and while they played the Heat tough at times (losing by one in Miami and losing in overtime in the following matchup) they were unable to finish those games, leaving little reason to suggest they a shot at pulling a series upset. The Heat will struggle to guard Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker to a lesser extent, but it will be even more difficult for Charlotte to contain Lebron and company. Steve Clifford values stopping transition and low post scoring, and successfully doing both to Miami may give them a shot to steal one or two games. Not allowing Bosh or Wade to get comfortable will be key as well. The two will get their share of shots, but the Bobcats cannot make it easy for them.
Prediction: Heat in five
Dallas (against San Antonio)
The Mavericks also find themselves with the matchup they didn’t want after falling to Memphis in the final game of the season. Instead of facing the luke warm Oklahoma City Thunder, they face the league leading San Antonio Spurs. Dallas did a fine job this season making more out of offseason acquisitions Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon than many expected, but will have a hard time finding success against the Spurs. Dirk Nowitzki’s experience will lead the way, and this series could get pretty fun the way Dallas scores the ball, but the Spurs execute incredibly well on offense, and combine that with a defensive rating that’s third best in the league (Dallas meanwhile ranks 22nd). Would love to say this goes six, but it is doubtful the Spurs let it go that far.
Prediction: Spurs in five
Portland (against Houston)
The Trailblazers held the best record in the NBA in the early parts of the season. Not predicted to contend for much of anything, they were the Arsenal of the NBA, surprising many with their strong start. Their Mesuit Ozil signing came in the form of Robin Lopez, whose rebounding ability and top ranked offensive rating of 128 has made him one of the more significant signings of the season, even if it came with 1% of the hype that Ozil’s signing did. But like the Gunners, Portland struggled as injuries mounted and players cooled off (remember when Wes Matthews was shooting 50 percent from three?). Portland hit a positive stride to end the year, finishing 9-1, but will it be enough to take down Houston? Containing Harden and Howard are the obvious keys to winning the series, as will be Aldridge’s health. Portland’s starting lineup matchups up well, but getting more scoring from their bench will be key. Despite averaging 106.7 points a game, Portland’s bench only accounts for 24.7 of that, ranking last in the league. Granted, Houston’s bench only combines for 27.4 points a game (26th), and average more points a game (107.7) than Portland.
With the way Portland has finished the season, there’s a decent possibility of advancing as long as Alridge stays healthy and the rest of the team finds more of that early season form. If they can steal one game in Houston, their strong play at home could carry them out of the first round.
Prediction: Portland in six
Toronto (against Brooklyn)
The Raptors have the best record in the East since trading Rudy Gay at 41-22. Finishing with 48 wins (a franchise record mind you), it is impressive how quickly the team turned things around. The team obviously played better without Gay, but to adapt to his absence and the additions of the players in return is remarkable. Dwayne Casey isn’t getting a lot of love for Coach of the Year, but credit is due for getting the Raptors back in the playoffs.
Toronto has benefited from DeMar Derozan’s All-Star season, the consistent play of Kyle Lowry, and the emergence of Terrence Ross. On paper this team is better than Brooklyn, but the playoff experience of KG, Pierce, and Williams could trump the Raptor’s talent. The two teams split the season series, but if Toronto’s defense stays up to par the Raptors may be able to pull out the series. Containing the Nets’ role plays (Livingston, Teletovic, Blatche, and Plumlee) could prove the difference, as they have played important roles for Brooklyn throughout the season.
Prediction: Toronto in seven
Washington (against Chicago)
Seemed unlikely the Wizards would finish as high as the 5th seed following that loss to the Bobcats, yet here they are. Beating the slow-paced, defensive minded Bulls will be tough task, as Chicago will be content winning every game 93-88. While Chicago doesn’t have a true offensive threat, their ability to grind out games and prevent teams from scoring makes them difficult to beat. John Wall and Bradley Beal will be key. Both have the ability to take over offensively, and if either (or both) can somehow exploit Chicago’s defense they will have a shot to win the series. However, beyond the starting lineup it is hard to predict what to make of Washington’s bench. Drew Gooden had a strong season after joining after the All-Star break, but can he continue that? Webster, Booker, and Harrington are decent role players as well, but the Wizards will need consistency from each to secure a series win.
Prediction: Bulls in six
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