The Lottery Mafia’s latest draft roundtable discussion features draft experts David Allen, Brian Emory, Andrew Johnson, James Plowright and Zach Reynolds.
1) Which prospect do you think will increase his stock the most between now and the June 26 draft?
Dave Allen: UCLA guard Zach LaVine. He has all the hallmarks you are looking for in a guard (size, athleticism, shooting), the shooting guard position is really thin right now, and should excel in workout settings since his perceived weaknesses are more game-related.
Brian Emory: I’m going to say Nik Stauskas here. A few weeks ago he was considered to be a late-lottery selection, but now I think it would be a shock to see him fall out of the top 10. Stauskas, with his amazing shooting ability, apparently put on a clinic during his Charlotte Hornets workout; expect him to do more of the same with Boston, Phoenix and Los Angeles. I would not be surprised at all to see him go as high as sixth overall on June 26.
Andrew Johnson: I may be a little late on this, but Noah Vonleh could end up in the top four, or even top three. He is exactly the kind of guy GMs seem to like – young and big with good combine measurements. He also ranks high in many analytic models, so the whole front office can be happy. Also, Kristaps Porzingis, for many of the same reasons.
James Plowright: As of right now most people see Kristaps Porzingis as a late first-round pick. Teams with no real “need” for a late first-round player may select Porzingis as a draft-and-stash candidate. However, Kris Habbis of NBA Draft Insider told me last week that the Oklahoma City Thunder were really high on him at No. 21 but were actually worried Porzingis wouldn’t still be there. Both the Celtics and Suns have numerous first-round picks, and each look to be a likely landing spot at No. 17 or 18.
Zach Reynolds: Kristaps Porzingis. The Latvian power forward’s rise up draft boards has already started, with some sources claiming he has already received a first-round promise. Porzingis is young, athletic and skilled, yet still has a slight mysterious effect to him having only played a bench role at Cajasol in Sevilla, Spain. Similar players rose close to past drafts. In a 2014 Draft devoid of talented big men outside of the top 10, Porzingis could find himself in demand as high as the late lottery.
2) Every year one player who seems a “lock” for the lottery slides out. Who will this year’s victim be?
DA: Michigan State guard Gary Harris. He measured out really poor at the combine and had a down year shooting the ball. He’s a good player, but general managers tend to swing for the higher-ceiling players in the lottery.
BE: Dario Saric seems like a good option here. Don’t get me wrong…Saric is a great talent and I’m a big fan of him, but there’s a lot of risk that comes with drafting him. Apparently he’s said that unless he’s selected by the Lakers or Celtics he won’t be playing in the NBA next year. If this is true, there are just too many better talents available instead of taking the risk of using a lottery pick on this guy.
AJ: I think Dario Saric is a possibility, and therefore may pull himself completely out of the draft. I haven’t read any buzz about him and his father/agent issues may be scaring lottery teams away. He may not be perceived as good enough to warrant the drama.
JP: James Young is a really good prospect. In almost any other year, he would be a top-14 pick. However, the likes of Gary Harris, Nik Stauskas and Doug McDermott could force Young to slide. Young is one of the youngest players in the draft (no pun intended) and most of the teams at the end of the lottery are looking to make the playoffs the following year and may want a player who carries a more immediate impact.
ZR: Sticking with the international trend, I’ll say Dario Saric. Saric is a talented point forward in the mold of Hedo Turkoglu, but was quoted saying he would only come over right away if drafted by the Lakers or Celtics. Saric deserves to be a top-10 pick based on talent alone, but hesitant teams could be wary over whether or not he’d leave Europe to sign with a rebuilding team. If he slides past Philadelphia at 10, Saric may have to wait to hear his name until Atlanta picks at 15.
3) Who is the most overrated prospect in the 2014 Draft?
DA: Indiana power forward/center Noah Vonleh. As an actual basketball player, he’s really average, and his good shooting is overblown because he only took roughly one 3-pointer per game. He is really just riding a wave of youth and measurements right now. Vonleh could turn into a good player, but he’s a project for now.
BE: For me, this is easily Zach LaVine. The hype behind him has gone way too far. I’ve even seen some people say that if he reaches his full potential he could be the next KOBE. That is just asinine. Yeah, he can jump really high and that’s cool and all, but he has no strength and his basketball IQ is awful. He is a bad decision maker and is terrified of contact. LaVine deserves to be selected in the late first round.
AJ: There are a couple, but I have to go with Rodney Hood. I think someone is going to take him too high, which for me is anywhere in the lottery. He really just doesn’t impact the game anywhere outside of scoring, with a low number of steals, blocks and rebounds. Given his one-dimensional production and age (he turns 22 before next season begins), there is a significant bust potential.
JP: Those who read my draft work regularly won’t be surprised by this pick, but hey, at least I am consistent, right? Zach LaVine has potential – there is no denying that – but I don’t see him being worth a top-20 pick in this year’s draft. He’s a freakish athlete and that really shines through in transition when it’s one-on-none. However, all that athleticism doesn’t really matter if he doesn’t know how to use it in real game situations. LaVine is a weak finisher in the paint (not strong, avoids contact, has no left hand). In 37 games, he made 17 shots around the rim in the half court. Yikes!
ZR: Both Jerami Grant and Zach LaVine stand out as players who will be drafted far higher than they should, but I’ll say LaVine because he has a better chance to land in the lottery. LaVine is a freak athlete who was measured with a 46-inch vertical in a workout with Los Angeles, but is an incredibly raw prospect. He has the tools to be successful, but he is a below-average ball handler, a streaky shooter, and falls asleep regularly on defense. LaVine should be picked between 20 and 30, and a team who drafts him in the lottery will have landed a player who will spend significant time in the Development League.
4) Who is your personal draft sleeper?
DA: UCLA shooting guard Jordan Adams is one of the better shooting guards in this draft and every general manager knows what he’s getting with him – a really good spot-up shooter and savvy player. He’s just not athletic at all. My really deep sleeper is Stanford power forward Dwight Powell. He’s an older guy, but he measured out and did well at the combine and is an NBA-ready stretch 4, something that is always in demand.
BE: I’m not hearing much about Bosnian center Jusuf Nurkic, but his ceiling is through the roof if you can develop him properly. He’s still raw and young, but he already has a nice arsenal of post moves he used to dominate the Adriatic League last season. Centers this young and with Nurkic’s scoring instincts are hard to find and at 6-11, 280 pounds, this dude is massive. Nurkic should easily be a lottery selection in my opinion, yet I’m hearing so little about him.
AJ: The sleepers in terms of production have to be Clint Capela out of Chalon in French Pro A and Jordan Adams out of UCLA. Capela is more likely to climb in the eyes of NBA teams as a super-athletic big man. His main perceived drawbacks – lack of strength and a shaky midrange shot – are the easiest to develop as he matures, so I would not be surprised to see him go mid-lottery.
JP: If I was to pick someone from the second round, it would be C.J. Wilcox, but I will go for someone who has real upside and the ability to be a difference maker for his team. I initially whittled it down to Adreian Payne and K.J. McDaniels. In the end, I decided on Payne. The only thing stopping him from being a top-10 pick is his age. However, Payne has not been playing at the same level as Doug McDermott, for instance, over the last two seasons at Michigan State. But he has made huge strides this last year and possesses a unique combination of NBA skill, size and athleticism.
ZR: Jordan Adams. While Adams disappointed with his combine performance, his style of play is not predicated on athleticism. Adams is a terrific defender who finished second in the NCAA in steals (95) and tied for fourth in steal percentage (5.0), but also a more-than-capable outside shooter and straight-line driver. Players like James Young and Rodney Hood will be drafted between 11 and 18, but Adams, who will likely be drafted in the late-first round/early-second round, will have a similar NBA impact.
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