Nineteen players accept invites to the NBA Green Room. Will they all hear their name in the first round?
On Sunday, the NBA announced it invited 19 players to attend the NBA Draft in the Green Room. While any player can attend the draft in hopes of hearing their name, only the twenty invited will be sitting at the circular tables directly in front of the podium where Adam Silver will call each of their names. Because they were invited to the draft, they are all widely considered to be locks for the first round.
In 2012, 14 players were invited to sit in the green room. In 2013, 13 players were asked. In the past, the players were widely considered as lottery pick candidates, but with the expanded green room (likely due to an increase in media attention for the event) the top twenty prospect (sans one top prospect) were invited. Among those invited, who will hear their name in the lottery?
Top Five Locks:
Dante Exum PG/Australia, Jabari Parker SF/Duke, Andrew Wiggins SF/Kansas
Of the 19 players sitting anxiously waiting, Exum, Parker and Wiggins will have the shortest wait times. Barring an unforeseen circumstance between today and Thursday’s Draft, all three of these players will be drafted in the top five, and more than likely will be the top three players selected overall.
Top Ten Locks:
Aaron Gordon PF/Arizona, Julius Randle PF/Kentucky, Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma State, Noah Vonleh PF/Indiana
This next group of players are unlikely to be among the first few to shake the Commissioner’s hand, but are virtually guaranteed to be among the first 10 players drafted. Vonleh, in particular, has the best chance to be drafted inside the top five, though Smart could also be taken as high as fourth overall.
Lottery Locks:
Gary Harris SG/Michigan State, Doug McDermott SF/Creighton, Nik Stauskas SG/Michigan
Adding to the previous two groups, ten players are projected as locks to hear their name in the lottery. Harris, McDermott and Stauskas could all be drafted inside the top ten, though each one could be selected between 11-14 as well. The wait will not be long for this group of players, as each is a lock to be drafted inside the lottery.
Potential Lottery Picks:
International Players
Jusuf Nurkic C/Bosnia
Outside of Dante Exum, who is a lock to be drafted inside the top three, Jusuf Nurkic and Dario Saric have the chance to be selected as lottery picks who have played internationally. Nurkic will be the only one attending the green room of the two, however. Nurkic has the potential to be the second international player drafted, but is unlikely to hear his name in the top ten. A highly skilled offensive big-man, Nurkic could take advantage of a lack of center presence at the top of the draft and sneak into the lottery.
Early-Entry Backcourt Players
Tyler Ennis PG/Syracuse, Rodney Hood SF/Duke, Zach LaVine SG/UCLA, Elfrid Payton PG/Louisiana-Lafayette, James Young SG/Kentucky
Each of the players in this sub-group are unlikely to be chosen in the top ten, but each could hear their name as lottery picks. Teams drafting for potential could opt for Young or LaVine, as each are dynamic offensive players still learning the game. Both could be regarded as terrific selections when the 2014 class is ready to sign their second contracts. Each team drafting in the late-lottery could select a point guard, with Ennis and Payton the most likely to benefit from the need. Payton, especially, has been rumored to be in-play as high as eighth to Sacramento, and has a very good chance of walking up to the stage as a lottery pick. Finally, Rodney Hood would be the preferred choice for a team who needs an influx of shooting, as many of teams who narrowly missed the playoffs desperately need.
Highly Productive College Players
Shabazz Napier PG/Connecticut, Adreian Payne PF/Michigan State, TJ Warren SF/NC State
Napier, Payne and Warren were all among the top stories of the 2013/14 college basketball season. Even though Warren left school as a sophomore, each player in this sub-group has a high basketball IQ, and could immediately contribute for most teams. Warren’s versatility would fit well with Minnesota and Phoenix. Payne’s size and shooting ability are coveted by each of the teams in the late-lottery. Napier, coming off a championship at UConn, is an all-around player who could fill the stat sheet successfully for many teams. For a team opting for experience, each of these players could fit a need.
Players who will NOT be in the Green Room
Kyle Anderson G/UCLA, Clint Capela PF/Switzerland, Joel Embiid C/Kansas, PJ Hairston SG/Texas Legends (NBADL), KJ McDaniels SF/Clemson, Dario Saric PF/Croatia
Outside of Embiid and Saric, each of these players face long odds to be drafted in the lottery. Among the players with the best chance are Anderson, who has a skill set that is valued differently between teams, and Capela, who has size and defensive instincts not readily available late in the lottery. Both players will need players at similar positions to be selected ahead of them.
Saric is widely regarded as a top-ten talent, though recent quotes about his preferred destinations and his contract status in Turkey could push him down draft boards and out of the lottery. Among all prospects that could be selected in the lottery, Saric may have the widest range.
Had Embiid not sustained a stress fracture in his right navicular bone, he would have been a no-brainer to be selected in the lottery, and would have been slotted into the “Top Ten Locks” group. Though he will not be in the Green Room, Embiid is a lock to be selected in the top-half of the lottery.
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