Location, Location, Location

Profiling which rookies are primed for success thanks to the teams that drafted them.

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“He’s a good player, he just got drafted into a bad situation.”

Right there is the default excuse for when a highly touted player busts. The omnipresent situation is the unofficial appendage attached to every NBA rookie since the beginning of time. Even in a game of pick-up where you are on the team with the fat, clumsy kid with Coke bottle glasses deservedly picked last, you are probably in a bad situation. For every natural born leader and guy that ‘makes his teammates better’ there is an albatross, a guy that ‘disrupts the locker room’ and brings a losing culture. Often this ignominious funk pervades entire organizations. After the Sacramento Kings drafted Ben McLemore last year for example, you could practically see ESPN’s draft analysts writing his career’s eulogy on their faces (I still have hope for him!).

Instead of the negatives let’s review some possible, positive situations for a change. The Rookie of the Year award often goes to the player that simply puts up the best numbers on a bad team (especially scoring) thanks to an abundance of minutes. Michael Carter-Williams, a guy that is never mistaken for a shooter, is a timely example of that truism. Other players benefit greatly, maybe not immediately but in the long run by being drafted by well-run organizations adept at developing youth. Or if you are Steven Adams or Kawhi Leonard you get the best of both worlds, drafted onto good teams that are also good at development.

Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks:

Usually you don’t associate being drafted by the NBA’s most forgettable franchise as a good situation. The catch is Parker actually wanted to go there due to close proximity to sweet home, Chicago. The Bucks also have new ownership and quietly assembled a nice cache of young talent. The growing pains will come but in the meantime look for arguably the draft’s most NBA-ready rookie to score oodles of points to create a different kind of stag party.

Julius Randle, Los Angeles Lakers:

It’s always a good situation to don the purple and gold but Randle’s good fortune grew with the news that his foot will not require surgery. Randle is in a rare win-win-win situation. If Gasol signs elsewhere and no other major free agent is brought in (i.e. Melo) then he gets gobs of touches and playing time. If Pau stays, he has a great vet to backup and learn from. If Mitch Kupchak lands a big fish and reloads the Lake Show then Randle has a winning team to contribute for.

Doug McDermott, Chicago Bulls:

Off the bat we knew the Bulls valued McBuckets highly after trading two first round picks for him. This is a round peg-round hole situation because McDermott is a ready-made scorer and poor defender whilst Chicago is anemic offensively but a stonewall on defense. Rose is allegedly healthy and back to form, meaning McDermott will get left open nightly to punish from beyond the arc. Add a big free agent acquisition like Melo, and McDermott could be the perfect, super role-player he is tailor made for.

Dante Exum, Utah Jazz:

Exum is in a great spot thanks to being off the radar in Utah as well as having the low expectations that come with playing for a young team in the mighty Western conference. The international mystery man can retain that mysteriousness to develop at a comfortable pace or do what tall, athletic guards with starter’s minutes do in the NBA: put up lots of points and win Rookie of the Year.

Adreian Payne, Atlanta Hawks:

Coach Budenholzer’s Hawks liked to shoot last year and were getting thin in the big man department. Payne is one of the best 3-point shooting post players in this year’s draft and also a sneakily good athlete that looks to address both of those areas. As a bonus he has the maturity you’d expect from a four year player from a great program. He’ll get solid rotation minutes and has the skill set to be a natural for the younger, run & gun Hawks.

P.J. Hairston, Charlotte Hornets:

The Hornets needed a shooting guard with good positional size and the ability to drain shots from deep. Hairston was snagged cheaply with the 26th pick of the draft and could very well become a starter or at least a great sixth man candidate depending on which new bees are brought to the hive in free agency. Charlotte is purportedly shopping starting SG Gerald Henderson, Jr everywhere short of Craigslist and his absence could mean big minutes for a rookie that has already proven capable of lighting up the D-league. This good situation can quickly make an about-face into a bad one however if being drafted so close to home means P.J. continues to hang out with the same bad elements that led to his UNC ouster.

Kyle Anderson, San Antonio Spurs:

A cerebral, multifaceted player goes to the smartest, most versatile system in the league. Anderson is such a Spurs’ pick that it’s practically pointless to go further. Anderson may not see the floor much his rookie year as he has to beat out all the other super-subs for Popovich’s trust but it’s only a matter of time and opportunity before his point-forward prowess is utilized.