Ricky Rubio: What’s He Really Worth?

Examining just how much Ricky Rubio is worth as the point guard begins extension talks with Minnesota.

It seems like just yesterday the legend of Ricky Rubio began making its rounds amongst the basketball world. The average fan had yet to really watch and observe him play, and had only heard the tale of this young 16-year-old Spaniard who was being labeled as the next Steve Nash. During the 2008 Summer Olympics he helped lead the Spanish team to a silver medal and after that he was officially dubbed as a near lock to be a top-10 selection one day in the NBA draft.  

One year later the Minnesota Timberwolves made Rubio the fifth overall pick in the 2009 draft. It’s easy to see why Minnesota spent such a high pick on him. Rubio was one of the purest guards to enter the league in quite some time as he was already an elite distributer of the rock. However due to contract complications, Rubio spent the next two seasons playing for FC Barcelona and didn’t make his NBA debut until the 2011 campaign.

Rubio has now spent three seasons in the NBA and he only has one year left on his rookie contract. After this season if the Wolves and Rubio still haven’t hashed out a new deal he will become a restricted free agent next summer, meaning the Wolves can match any offer Rubio receives and he would have to return to Minnesota.

According to reports the Wolves and Rubio have already began discussing terms for a new deal which would last four years, but according to CBS Sports the two sides are very far apart on the number right now.  Rubio is seeking a max deal while the Wolves only want to commit about $10 million per year to him.

I’m a pretty big fan of Rubio myself, but in no way is he worth a max contract. There is no doubt that Rubio is an excellent passer, rebounder and defender but I’m afraid he’s never going to be anything better than absolutely dreadful scorer. Granted he’s still only 23 with plenty of room to grow, but he has a career FG percentage of 36.8 percent. No player that shoots below 37 percent over a three season span deserves anywhere near a max contract. 

It’s also important to note that this league is stacked with point guards right now.  There are easily 16-20 point guards just as good if not better than Rubio. It’s not like a good starting point guard is hard to find these days.  

This isn’t a knock on Rubio, he’s a quality player.  He’s just not worth a max contract, and not many players are. However if a team pays him around $10 million per year for four seasons I wouldn’t have too big of a problem with that contract. In the correct system I do believe Rubio has the tools to take a team on a deep playoff run. A four year deal in the $40 – $48 million range sounds reasonable.  

Minnesota should sit tight and let him play out this season on his rookie deal, then extend him the qualifying offer. The Wolves are such a young and unproven team, and after the loss of Kevin Love I highly doubt they’ll be anywhere near the playoffs in the Western Conference this season. Give Rubio more time to show what he’s really worth, and potentially improve his offensive ability. Being able to finish better at the rim should be a point of emphasis. If Rubio truly believes he’s worth a max contract, let him prove it. The Wolves have time here.

Rubio has still only played three years in the league, and much of that time was lost due to a torn ACL. His field goal percentage did jump from 36 percent to 38 percent last season.  That’s far from where it needs to be, but if he could somehow bump that to over 40 percent that would increase his value significantly.

The only player Minnesota has significant money tied to for the future is Nikola Pekovic.  They currently have two more years of Thaddeus Young and three more years of Kevin Martin, aside of that most of their core is on rookie deals (Wiggins, Bennett, LaVine, Dieng). They’ll have cap room available, but again, giving Rubio the max would be overpaying, and make it harder for the team to move should Rubio ever be involved in trade discussions. A four year deal at $10-$12 million a year range would ultimately be a good contract for both sides.