Escaping the Lottery: Western Conference Edition

In recent years, the Warriors and Clippers have successfully escaped the lottery after spending the vast majority of the last two decades there. But what do the statistics say about a lottery team’s chances of transforming into a playoff squad?

*Nick Denning contributed to this piece.

The lottery is not a place where franchises like to spend long periods of time. Granted, the lottery can serve as a critical springboard for a successful rebuilding effort, but if the rebuild is going according to plan, a team’s place in the lottery should only be temporary. Through our data, we’ve found that from year to year, it’s not so easy to escape the Western Conference lottery. Beginning in 1995-96 (the inaugural year of the Vancouver Grizzlies’ existence), only 25.6 percent of lottery teams have been able to make the playoffs the following season.

Over this period, two franchises have barely had to endure the lottery, making it even more difficult for lottery teams to knock down the doors and get into the postseason party. These franchises, the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers, can thank their acquisitions of a select few future Hall of Famers, as well as shrewd management and coaching over the years. As a result, the Spurs only once spent time in the lottery, and that was the time David Robinson’s hurt back and broken foot limited him to six games all season. The Spurs drafted Tim Duncan the following June, and the rest is history. For their part, the Lakers have only missed the playoffs twice during this time period. Perhaps not so coincidentally, Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant teamed up in LA the second season of our dataset (’96-97). More specifically, Bryant has been a constant presence; a Bryant-led Lakers team has only missed the playoffs twice in his 18 seasons, and during last season, one of their two lottery visits, Bryant played a mere six games. In short, having Tim Duncan or Kobe Bryant on one’s roster is a great way to avoid the lottery. But many teams are not so fortunate.

The probability of a Western Conference lottery team escaping the lottery at least once within the following two years climbs to 41.1 percent. Within the next three seasons of a lottery appearance, the probability of a postseason berth improves to 56.5 percent, which is still nothing to write home about.

Predictably, the No. 9 and 10 seeds fare the best, having made the playoffs the next season 38.9 percent of the time. On the other hand, only one of the West’s 18 No. 14 seeds since ‘95-96 has made the playoffs the next season, and that was the year the Nuggets drafted Carmelo Anthony. And of the nine seasons in which there were 15 Western Conference teams, a 15 seed has never made the playoffs the following year, though last season’s Phoenix Suns came awfully close. Our data found that out West, No. 15 seeds improve their record the next year by an average of 9.2 wins, but that’s probably more a function of their inept play the previous season. There typically isn’t much worse a team can get after finishing last in its conference. Finishing an impressive 48-34, the 2013-14 Phoenix Suns are so far the only team to finish better than .500 a season after finishing 15th in the Western Conference.

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*The above graph uses Western Conference data from the 1995-96 season until the present to demonstrate the likelihood of a lottery team making the playoffs 1) the following season, 2) at least once within the next two seasons and 3) at least once within the next three seasons.  

The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers are the best examples of teams that severely struggled to escape the lottery over the past two decades. Fortunately for both teams, they have made the playoffs in consecutive years (three straight for the Clippers; two for Golden State) and appear primed for more playoff appearances to come. Between ’95-96 and ’10-11, however, the Warriors missed the playoffs 15 of 16 times, while the Clippers were nearly as futile, missing the postseason 14 times. Embarrassingly, one of those playoff seasons saw a weak 36-46 effort that was just enough for the Clips to sneak into the eighth seed before promptly getting swept by the then-mighty Utah Jazz.

Since coming over from the Eastern Conference, the Hornets-turned-Pelicans have lived in the lottery 70 percent of the time. Like the Warriors and Clippers, New Orleans may soon see brighter days, however. With a game-changing presence like Anthony Davis, who is only 21, it’s entirely possible that the Pelicans could largely avoid the lottery for the next two decades, just as the Spurs and Lakers were able to do. On the other hand, with a loaded Western Conference, it may not yet be New Orleans’ time.

Before moving on, let’s briefly discuss the expansion Vancouver Grizzlies. Unsurprisingly, the Grizzlies populated the lottery for their first eight seasons. They didn’t even improve over their first four years. Then, ever so gradually, the Grizzlies’ record improved, before making a huge, 22-win jump from ‘02-03 to ’03-04. Including the ’03-04 season, the Grizzlies have now made the playoffs seven of 11 times since. The progression actually makes a great deal of sense: the Grizzlies missed the playoffs eight straight times (expansion blues), enjoyed three consecutive playoff appearances (Pau Gasol’s third, fourth and fifth NBA seasons), returned to the lottery for four years (Pau Gasol was traded away to the Lakers less than halfway through that period) and now have been in the playoffs ever since (beginning with Marc Gasol’s third pro year, the second season he was paired with Zach Randolph down low).

So how stable or unstable is the Western Conference lottery picture? Well, it seems to be fairly stable. That is, generally from season to season, many of the same teams make the playoffs, while many of the same teams are on the outside looking in. As mentioned above, the dominance of the Spurs and Lakers greatly contributed to that stability. And to a slightly lesser extent, the consistency of the Jazz and Mavericks had the same effect. Consider this: With Karl Malone, John Stockton and Jerry Sloan around, the Jazz always had a playoff spot reserved for them until 2003-04. Similarly, the Mavericks have been just as consistent more recently. After living in the lottery consecutively from ’95-96 until ’99-00, Dallas has avoided the lottery 13 of 14 times. If we exclude Dirk Nowitzki’s first two professional years, in 13 of the 14 ensuing seasons, the slogan may well have been “Nowitzki, No Lottery” for Dallas.

Again, the presence of these consistent winners makes life much more difficult for teams aiming to leave the dreaded lottery. Beginning with ’95-96 lottery teams, an average of 1.7 Western Conference teams escaped the lottery the following season. However, from ’96-97 to ’01-02, the situation was the worst for the Western lottery teams, when there were six straight seasons where only one lottery team made the playoffs the next year. On two occasions, there have been three lottery teams to make the playoffs the following year, but that’s extremely rare. Typically (in 16 of 18 years or 88.9 percent of the time), no more than two lottery teams are fortunate enough to escape the next year. However, it’s also true that over the 18 seasons studied, there was never a season in which not a single Western Conference lottery team escaped.

*Again, beginning with the 1995-96 season, the table below shows, by seed, how a Western Conference lottery team typically performs the following season – particularly 1) the team’s +/- wins the next season, 2) the probability of the team winning at least eight more games than it did the previous season and 3) the probability of the team’s win-loss record regressing by eight or more games the following season.    

[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/1nh-SgPRRlNXO1Qc-6tKlv8bBasvlF3O07RMHa4Lp6J0/pubchart” query=”oid=1473955293&format=image” width=”600″ height=”371″ /] No. 12 Seeds’ Mixed Results the Following Season

Only 22.2 percent of No. 12 seeds made the playoffs the next season (that’s four of 18).

In Kevin Garnett’s sophomore season (’96-97), when Minnesota finally started playing him big minutes, the Timberwolves improved by 14 wins and then reeled off eight straight postseason appearances.

The Grizzlies’ first playoff season in history came a year after finishing 12th in the West. A year later, it was the SuperSonics’ turn, as they turned a 37-45 ’03-04 season into a strong 52-30 campaign the following season.

The 2006-07 Rockets improved their previous season’s record by 18 wins, but it turns out their ’05-06 season was actually more of the outlier. In fact, the ’04-05 Rockets won 51 games, before dropping down to 34, and then winning 52, 55, and 53 games in the next three seasons, respectively. What happened in ’05-06? Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming missed extended time, causing Houston to rank 29th of 30 in offensive efficiency.

Substantial Improvement for Certain No. 13 Seeds

Only one-third of Western No. 13 seeds have gotten to the postseason the next year, but four of the six that did make it happen produced remarkable bounce-back seasons. We’ve already discussed the case of the 1996-97 Spurs, who largely played without the Admiral and drafted Duncan the ensuing offseason, but what about the ’04-05 Suns or the ’09-10 Thunder? After a 29-53 dud of a season, the Suns brought in Steve Nash to quarterback Mike D’Antoni’s “Seven Seconds or Less” offense, and the move paid huge dividends, resulting in a 62-20 finish, good for best in the West. In the case of the Thunder, it was more about their young core – led by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook – taking that next step. And the arrival of rookie James Harden certainly didn’t hurt. As a result, Oklahoma City improved its record by 27 wins.

After the Clippers acquired Chris Paul, their record improved by nearly 18 wins. The following year, the first full season without Monta Ellis, the Warriors improved their record by more than 18 wins. The Warriors’ 2012-13 season, coach Mark Jackson’s second with the team, also featured a much-improved Klay Thompson (also his second season) and a healthy Stephen Curry who missed nearly 60 percent of the previous season due to injury.

Interestingly enough, the Warriors have transformed from 13 seed to playoff team twice since ’05-06, and each time ended long playoff droughts of 12 and five years apiece.

Bouncing Back From a 15-Seed Season

As noted, the 2013-14 Phoenix Suns were the most successful post-15 seed, but a few others made considerable improvements a year after occupying the cellar. The 2004-05 Hornets won just 18 games, but managed to finish 38-44 the following year in large part because of their draft selection of Chris Paul. As the city of New Orleans slowly began its rebuild following the devastating Hurricane Katrina, the Hornets more quickly turned their fortunes around on the basketball court, playing most of their games in Oklahoma City. By 2007-08, they were out of the lottery and taking the Spurs to seven games in the Western Conference semifinals.

In addition, the 2010-11 Timberwolves bounced back from a miserable 17-65 campaign with a solid 26-40 finish in a lockout-shortened season. Scaled to 82 games, Minnesota improved its record by more than 15 wins. The ’11-12 improvement can largely be attributed to Kevin Love, who averaged 26.0 points per game in a whopping 39.0 minutes per night. With Love finally given the freedom to launch the 3 early and often, the Timberwolves won 43.6 percent of the games in which he appeared. While still a losing record, it was clearly a huge improvement over the previous season’s 23.3 winning percentage with Love in uniform. Further demonstrating Love’s worth, the ’11-12 Timberwolves went 2-9 in the games he missed. As we know, however, the Timberwolves never made the postseason with Love. Of course, Minnesota finally decided to start rebuilding again, as seen by its forward-looking offseason trade centered around Kevin Love and Andrew Wiggins.

Hanging Around No. 9

While it may be more fun to highlight lottery teams that came out of nowhere and shocked everyone the following season, the Houston Rockets just as effectively made their way into the playoffs. Houston slowly crept into the playoffs after occupying the No. 9 seed for three straight seasons. Not as flashy, but hey, whatever works. Take a look:

• 2009-10: 42-40, 9 seed
• 2010-11: 43-39, 9 seed
• 2011-12: 42-40, 9 seed
• 2012-13: 45-37, 8 seed
• 2013-14: 54-28, 4 seed

Consistency Isn’t Always Good

The Sacramento Kings have been incredibly consistent over the past five seasons. With the lottery-shortened ’11-12 season scaled to 82 games, check out how consistently bad the Kings have been since ’09-10. In fact, they finished dead last at 17-65 in 2008-09, but that’s not included here because 2009-10 actually saw an eight-win improvement. Then, any semblance of progress was gone:

• 2009-10: 25-57, 14 seed
• 2010-11: 24-58, 14 seed
• 2011-12: 27-55, 14 seed
• 2012-13: 28-54, 13 seed
• 2013-14: 28-54, 13 seed

More Lottery Tidbits

• The top two Western Conference seeds in 2003-04, the Timberwolves and Lakers, both failed to make the playoffs the following season. A banged-up Sam Cassell (he started 38 games, down from 81 the prior season) may have been the reason the ’04-05 Timberwolves finished a game outside of the eighth and final playoff spot. For the Lakers, a roster overhaul highlighted by the departures of three future Hall of Famers – Shaquille O’Neal, Gary Payton and Karl Malone – likely did the trick.
• On one occasion over this 19-year period, a playoff team improved its record but fell into the lottery in the process. Having stumbled into the playoffs with a 42-40 mark the season before, the 2007-08 Warriors improved to 48-34 but found themselves on the outside of a deep Western Conference playoff contingent. That season, every Western playoff team won 50 or more games.
• Over the years analyzed, nine of the 15 Western Conference teams have spent at least 42 percent of the time in the lottery. After the Spurs, Lakers, Mavericks and Jazz, the next best-performing franchises were the Blazers (seven lottery appearances in 19 years) and Suns (seven appearances, as well). The Rockets and SuperSonics/Thunder each made eight lottery appearances, slightly better than the Nuggets’ nine lottery seasons over the past 19 seasons.