Losing Jabari Parker for the year was a major loss, but in his absence the Bucks have found consistency at a bargain in Khris Middleton.
The Milwaukee Bucks are a franchise on the verge of long-term success. Under new ownership, the team hired coach Jason Kidd, drafted well in grabbing Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2013, and Jabari Parker, the number two overall pick, in 2014. The team has moved into a radically new position from where it stood just a few short years ago when they sported the guard combination of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings.
When the Bucks struck a deal with the Detroit Pistons to shed Brandon Jennings, they brought in Brandon Knight, Viacheslav Karvtsov and Khris Middleton. Knight was the big piece that the Bucks acquired in return, but time has shown that they may have struck gold with Middleton.
Middleton, a second-round draft pick of the Pistons in 2012, was a solid collegiate athlete at Texas A&M, but not a highly regarded player entering the NBA. In his first season, Middleton played in just 27 games, none of which he started. He also had a short stint in the D League during his rookie season. The following season, his first in Milwaukee, Middleton played the full 82 games and started 64. His minutes jumped from 17.6 in his rookie season to 30.6 in his sophomore campaign. His increased usage gave him a chance to grow into the pro game which has paid dividends for both player and team.
In the final year of his rookie contract, Middleton is playing for a more consistent role and a new contract. While the Parker injury is very disappointing for Bucks fans, and fans of the NBA, the silver lining is that it will give the Bucks a chance to see more of their versatile guard/forward.
Earning just $915,243 this season, Middleton has been a steal for the Bucks. He currently sits fifth in the league from 3-point range, shooting 44.5 percent. He also ranks highly on the defensive end of the court, ranking eighth in steal percentage at 3.0, which tracks the number of possessions by an opposing team that end in a steal by the given player. The ability to play high level NBA defense at the wing is the kind of thing that gets players noticed. Add his ability to shoot from deep consistently, and Middleton is going to be up for a healthy pay raise at season end.
How high can Middleton go? It’s hard to say just how much Middleton can get, the Bucks would seemingly want to keep him around and Milwaukee seems to be a good fit for him. Beyond starting 82 games last season, Middleton has improved significantly each month this season. In October he was shooting 39.6 percent from the field in 13 games. Over the same number of games in January, Middleton has shot 55.4 percent. The splits for his 3-point attempts are even wider, going from 36.7 percent in November to 53.5 percent in January. For the month of January the following players shot 50/50/80 and played more than 15 minutes per game: Khris Middleton, Klay Thompson, Kyle Korver, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Tayshaun Prince.
It won’t be known for a while if these numbers are sustainable, but we do know that Middleton is benefiting from having more time on the court to grow, learn and get acclimated to life in the NBA. He currently sits fourth on the team in total minutes played, second in Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) for players who have player more than 420 minutes at 104.9, second in Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) at 95.5, and sits third in True Shooting Percentage for players over 420 minutes at 55.4. All of this production will cost the Milwaukee Bucks a little over $915,000 which puts him below 10 other players in salary on their 2014-15 roster.
For 2015-16, the Bucks only have $51,099,680 in designated salary and only two other players who may potentially be back beyond Middleton. They will need to work something out with Brandon Knight if they would like him to return, but even if he were to get a modest raise to something in the $6-8 million range, that would still leave the Bucks approximately $4-6 million below their current position. In addition, the unknown jumps in the salary cap over the next few seasons due to the league’s new television deal will most likely see the cap raise several million dollars, leaving them room to re-sign both Knight and Middleton at healthy raises and still give them some room under the cap to make some moves.
Khris Middleton is playing himself into a bigger contract next season with some great play in his extended time on the court for Milwaukee. The young guard’s expiring rookie contract has seen him increase his playing time, become a solid wing defender, and become one of the better 3-point shooters in the league. The league’s contract salary situation is somewhere between conservative and the wild west given the uncertainty of increased cap numbers from money infused by the new television deal. Middleton seems to be a good candidate for a mid-level salary figure and if his play stays consistent at his current level, that number would be a steal.
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