The former Kentucky center has brought his team to another level with his defensive play, and his rookie statistics rival those of NBA greats.
Less than two months ago, I ranked Minnesota Timberwolves forward Andrew Wiggins first on my rookie ladder. The former Kansas star had an excellent month of January, scoring an average of 19.8 points per game while shooting 47.1 percent from the field and notching 1.4 steals per game.
Wiggins’ scoring numbers have continued to go up since then. However, his shooting percentages have fallen, especially from 3-point range, where his percentage has dropped from 35.8 to 31.7. Moreover, his rank in PER among NBA rookies has slipped from seventh to ninth, and his assist and rebounding numbers still leave plenty to be desired. But most importantly, over their past 20 games, the Timberwolves are just 3-17.
While Wiggins may still be viewed by many as the 2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year, there is one player who’s taken his game to another level and brought his team with him: Philadelphia’s Nerlens Noel.
Back in January, I ranked Noel second on my rookie ladder. But since then, the 20-year-old center has become a force to be reckoned with on the court. Since the All-Star break, he’s averaging a double-double in points in rebounds (13.1 and 10.0 respectively) while posting 2.3 blocks and 2.1 steals per game. Additionally, he’s now tied for third in PER (15.08) and he leads all rookies in several statistical categories including rebounds, steals, blocks, value added and estimated wins added.
In an article published Thursday by Sports Illustrated, Alex Hampl compared Noel’s rookie statistics to those of the NBA’s greatest centers during their first seasons. The results may surprise you.
“Noel is very, very close to averaging 2 blocks and 1.5 steals per game (as of Thursday, he’s averaging 1.9 blocks and 1.7 steals per game.) He actually was puling off the statistical feat until suffering a mini-block drought to end March… Only one other rookie since the NBA started counting blocks in 1973 averaged at least 2 blocks and 1.5 steals his rookie season—David Robinson in 1989-90. Even more impressive for Noel is that Robinson was 24 his rookie year, after playing four years at Navy and serving two years of military service. Noel turns 21 on Friday, meaning he will put up historic numbers in a season in which he can’t legally drink… Since 1973, only two players averaged at least 2.5 blocks and 2 steals per game over a full season—Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon, who incredibly did it four times. That’s it. “
Hampl moves forward to assert how Noel’s numbers stack up against some of the league’s modern-day stars in the frontcourt. Again, the outcome may surprise you.
“And Noel’s defensive numbers aren’t just impressive compared to other rookies, they hold up against just about anyone else in the league. That 2/1.5 plateau? Anthony Davis is the only other player in the NBA to reach it this year. For some perspective on how rare it is to combine those skills: Tim Duncan, widely considered to be the best defensive player of his generation, has never averaged 2/1.5. Dwight Howard, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, hit that mark exactly one time, in his eighth year as a pro.”
Furthermore, Hampl detailed how Noel’s stellar defensive play has brought his team up another level.
“For all the chatter about Philadelphia embarrassing the NBA, the 76ers have actually fielded some promising on-court results, ranking No. 11 in defensive efficiency (102.0) this season. A good deal of that improvement and defensive competency is thanks to Noel, the No. 6 pick in the 2013 draft, who had his rookie year delayed a season due to a torn ACL.”
Over their past 20 games, the Sixers are 5-15, two wins better than the Timberwolves during that span. While that margin may not seem poignant enough to warrant attention, it’s important to note that Minnesota has more NBA-caliber talent on its roster. Wiggins certainly deserves praise for his performance this season, but he’s been accompanied at times by seasoned veterans Kevin Martin, Ricky Rubio, Mo Williams and Nikola Pekovic. Zach LaVine, the 2014-15 NBA Slam Dunk Contest winner, and sophomore Shabazz Muhammad have also enjoyed solid seasons for the Timberwolves.
Meanwhile, the Sixers’ leading scorer, Tony Wroten, has been sidelined since January with an ACL injury. Michael Carter-Williams, the 2013-14 NBA Rookie of the Year and Philly’s second-leading scorer, was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks just minutes before the trade deadline, and K.J. McDaniels, one of the best defensive rookies in the league, got shipped to the Houston Rockets in a deadline deal. At 13.1 points per game, second-year forward Robert Covington now leads Philadelphia in scoring.
Overall, Wiggins has Noel beat in the scoring category, but the former Kentucky center is better in rebounding, steals and blocks in addition to many advanced categories including PER, value added, estimated wins added and assist ratio (according to ESPN’s John Hollinger). From Hollinger’s measurements, Wiggins has the lower turnover ratio and the higher usage rate (a statistic not indicative of how good or bad a player necessarily is) and true shooting percentage, but the remainder of the areas are all Nerlens.
According to Basketball Reference, Noel outdoes Wiggins in even more advanced statistical categories such as win shares (4.0 to 1.9), steal percentage (2.9 to 1.5), assist percentage (1.8 to 1.5) and box plus/minus (0.8 to -2.4). But the most glaring statistic in Noel’s favor is defensive rating. Noel has a defensive rating of 99, while Wiggins is at 114, meaning opponents score an average of 114 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor.
Wiggins is a great player, and his rookie campaign has been one of few in a draft class many rated the best since 2003, when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony entered the league. However, Nerlens Noel has been more than great over the past few months. His defensive success has elevated his team and his numbers have challenged history. Ultimately, when his statistics are measured against those of Wiggins, it’s evident who has been the better rookie this season.
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