The Lottery Mafia’s founder James Plowright gives us his take on the upcoming NBA draft.
1. Karl Towns
The Wolves already have young pros full of potential at each position apart from Power Foward. This, coupled with Towns potentially having the most upside of any big in the draft suggests Towns could hear his name called first on draft night
2. D’Angelo Russell
The Knicks are so weak everywhere apart from small forward they should take whichever prospect they think is the best available. I think Russell’s ability to play both off/on the ball fits nicely play into the triangle and next to Carmelo Anthony.
3. Emmanuel Mudiay
I can see the 76er fans screaming “Not another big PG who can’t shoot and has turnover issues!” However, Mudiay’s potential is much higher than Carter Williams due to his athleticism and strength. Mudiay is a better shooter than Williams and could create a really scary, long, athletic defensive team with Embiid/Noel and Saric down the road.
4. Jahil Okafor
Okafor would have been the number one pick ten years ago, however times are changing and the NBA is now dominated by guards and elite shooting. Okafor gives the Lakers their centrepiece to rebuild around, he is likely the last player on the board at this point to have “Franchise player” potential.
5. Kristaps Porzingis
In recent times the Magic have drafted a number of elite athletes with a high motor, selecting Porzingis would be a step away from that, but maybe that’s what they need to do. The Magic have NO young players who are above average shooters (I class Oladipo as an average shooter). Porzingis will provide the shot blocking Vucevich doesn’t and the shooting they miss with Payton/Gordon.
6. Justise Winslow
Winslow has a terrific win first attitude and is a versatile, defensively orientated player. This is exactly what the Kings need, McLemore/Stauskas still have question marks next to them and are largely offensive players. Winslow could come in and contribute from day one as a lock down defender, he would also fit Karl’s fast pace style as he is a great transition player.
7. Mario Hezjona
The Nuggets are one of the biggest fans of selecting international players in the draft, Hezjona might be the best prospect from Europe for the last three years. Who the Nuggets choose as their coach might play into this, but if they choose to play at a fast pace then Hezjona should fit in as he’s an elite athlete and a very good shooter.
8. Stanley Johnson
The Pistons are desperate for wing help with the corpse of Caron Butler trying to fill the void this past season. Johnson is a good shooter, due to his strong frame he also has the potential to guard 2-4, he is also a good defensive rebounder which is one of SVG’s founding philosophies.
9. Sam Dekker
The Hornets need shooting, Dekker is by no means the best shooter they could get here (Oubre, Booker, Hunter) but he might be the best all-round player. It’s very possible the Hornets trade this pick, but selecting Dekker would give them a versatile 3/4 who is an elite athlete and a very good alround player.
10. Jerian Grant
I am almost sure the Heat package this pick, Pat Riley has said a number of times he doesn’t believe building through the draft is the way to go for the Heat. If they do select someone, expect it to be someone who is a lot older and can come in and contribute right away. Grant could spend time taking minutes away from Chalmers as the backup PG and Henry Walker the backup SG.
11. Willie Cauley-Stein
With Roy Hibbert’s future up in the air, WCS would look to be a more versatile replacement. The Pacers defensive philosophy where the big isn’t asked to do too much would be a great landing spot for Indiana.
12. Trey Lyles
Lyles has the kind of offensive versatility that would suit Snyder’s offense, he has a high BBIQ and a good handle and feel out of the post. He also shown flashes of being a decent shooter from range which would compliment playing with Gobert and in some line ups, with Favors.
13. Myles Turner
Despite Alex Len having a breakout season, the Suns are still thin in the frontcourt with Brandon Wright their only other center being Brandon Wright who is a free agent this offseason. Turner would instantly become the best shot blocker the Suns have and would also provide floor spacing for the young Suns core who generally struggle to stretch the floor (Bledsoe, Goodwin, Warren).
14. Kelly Oubre
There is no doubt Oubre made improvements at Kansas, but I still think a lot of teams will be scared of his lack of work ethic. OKC need to get back in the playoffs and compete for a championship next year or face the growing chance of Durant leaving. Oubre might actually be one of the least NBA ready prospects in the draft, but his upside is bigger than any of the other wings apart from Hezjona.
15. Frank Kaminsky
With Millsap becoming a free agent this summer and the Hawks playing style relying on high BBIQ, ball movement and shooting Kaminsky would be a good fit. With the right matchup Kaminsky could also play some five, which would certainly be an upgrade over the ageing Pero Antic.
16. Motrezl Harrell
The Celtics need big men, Harrell provides a tough, aggressive interior presence and brings a similair “Chip on his shoulder” attitude as this years Celtics rookie Marcus Smart. Yes the Celtics already have two power forwards in Olynyk/Sullinger, but both appear to be available for the right price, especially Sullinger who has struggled to stay in shape.
17. Devin Booker
The Bucks were already one of the worst shooting teams in the league, but by replacing Brandon Knight with Michael Carter-Williams their shooting woes got even worse. Booker is one of the purist shooters in the draft, he could replace Middleton if he were to leave as a restricted free agent, or fit in as a rotation player if he stays.
18. Tyus Jones
The injury to Patrick Beverley has just highlighted the need for a good backup point guard in Houston. The Rockets pay more attention than most to the analytical projections, and Jones ranks very highly on most
19. Cameron Payne
The Wizards are another team desperate for a good point guard to backup John Wall, neither Miller or Sessions has filled that hole this past year. Payne is the next best point guard available, he’s a very gifted passer, and a decent shooter, but he was given the green light at Murray State to take a lot of shots, will he be able to adapt to a reserve role? He is also one of the weakest guards in the draft, he was lucky to go up against subpar opposition playing in the Sunbelt conference.
20. RJ Hunter
None of the Raptors three core players (Lowry, DeRozan, Valancunis) are very efficient three point shooters. This is okay, but they if they do decide to stick with these three guys they are going to need to add shooting, Terrence Ross unfortunately looks to be a puzzle of potential who could be on the move. It’s thought Hunter is a great shooter, sure he hits some unbelievably deep threes, but his numbers on open looks are actually a little disappointing.
21. Bobby Portis
Portis will be a solid, if not unspectacular pro. The Mavericks need to fill out their roster with a number of free agents this offseason. The Mavs don’t have any real gaping holes, but at this point Portis t is the best player available and would likely have been a lottery pick in last years draft.
22. Delon Wright
The Kirk Hinrich experience in Chicago MUST come to an end soon, and Delon Wright would be the perfect guy to make that happen. Wright is a big guard with a very high BBIQ, he’s also a good defender and improving shooter. Wright will never be anything more than a backup, but that’s fine for a Chicago team which is in the middle of a championship window.
23. Jarrell Martin
Martin is one of my favourite late first round prospects, he possess very good athleticism and overall has some very good instincts. Martin could stand to improve his conditioning, he has a very puffy body, this should help him improve his speed and be a full time small forward. Portland already have a roster full of shooters, what they don’t have is an athletic swingman who can create on the perimeter and score in both the half court and transition.
24. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
RHJ is one of my favourite prospects, I personally think it’s criminal he isn’t a top 15 pick, but NBA teams really needs it’s wings to have some resemblance of a jump shot. RHJ on the Cavs is just plain scary, he would instantly give them a lockdown defender who can guard the oppositions best wing player night in night out. The Cavs also have enough shooting at other positions to cover any potential spacing issues.
25. Kevon Looney
I personally don’t see Looney as a top tier project, I think he’s a decent rebounder but I really don’t see what role he has at the next level. He’s a bit of a tweener and he struggles to shoot, that’s not normally a great mix. however Memphis at #25 can afford to take a gamble on Looney who does project to be a good defender.
26. Justin Anderson
The Spurs have more uncertainty about their roster now than they have for a number of years, will Danny Green stay? Will Duncan/Manu retire? Anderson could provide good cover in case Green leaves, he is a very good defender and showed flashes of being a good set, open shooter. Anderson never moaned about wanting more shots, he quietly bought into the Virginia system and sacrificed some of his own statistics, the Spurs will like that approach.
27. George Lucas
The Lakers will have already have gotten their premier rookie early in the draft, so they can afford to take one of the best euro prospects. Lucas is a 6′ six inch point guard from France with tremendous long term potential, but he is a long way off. He showed flashes while practicing with the “World team” at the Nike Hoop Summit this year, enough to now be considered a late first round pick. The Lakers can afford to let him develop overseas for a few years and bring him over in the “Post Kobe” Lakers era.
28. Christian Wood
The Celtics would be taking a flier on Wood who is a good rebounder and shotblocker with the potential to stretch the floor. The big downside with Wood is his lack of strength, he consistently gets bullied in the paint and might simply be overpowered at the next level. The Celtics need a shotblocker, despite already taking a power forward in Harrell in this mock draft I see Wood as more of a centre.
29. Chris McCollough
The Nets can afford to take a chance on McCollough, a freshmen who was at one point considered a lottery pick before tearing his ACL. During his time at Syracuse McCollough showed he was a good rebounder and shot blocker, he also showed flashes of a jump shot at times. If the Nets do bring back Lopez, McCollough would be a great fit next to him at power forward.
30. Timothe Luwawu
The Warriors are unlikely to have any #30 pick make an impact on their team in the near future, so it makes sense to take an international player who could help in the future. Luwawu is just 18 years old and has good size (6 foot, six inch), good athleticism and overall a good offensive game as he shoots and passes the ball well.
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