The deadline for rookie contract extensions has come and gone, and a few key players on lottery teams still don’t have contracts, meaning they will be out on the market next year and having an impact on free agency 2016.
Restricted free agency has always been a complicated, and risky, process. Teams have the option of extending first round picks’ contracts the year before they would become restricted free agents. Extending them early prevents them from hitting the market and potentially receiving an offer from another team that their current team just can’t match. But extending players also means making a long term decision on their worth to the franchise only three years into their career, and a decline in their value can really hurt the team long term (looking at you, Larry Sanders).
And now, with the salary cap rising astronomically, extending rookie contracts is becoming even more difficult, as gauging a player’s value in today’s shifting market is not easy. With the rookie contract extension deadline coming and going, multiple talented players on lottery teams have not been locked down to extensions, and these players could have a significant impact on how free agency plays out next year.
Jared Sullinger/Tyler Zeller
The Celtics have a pair of young big men that didn’t receive contract extensions in Tyler Zeller and Jared Sullinger. Both players bring unique talents that have helped Boston in the past, but neither is without any concerns about their value long-term.
Zeller, whose strong preseason earned him the starting center position, has been a positive offensive weapon in his career, showing impressive range and touch for a 7-footer. But to start the season Zeller has struggled offensively, and has been a train wreck on defense, leading to a steep reduction in minutes.
Sullinger has been productive when healthy, but his health continues to be a concern. He has only played in more than 60 games in one of his first three seasons, and injury concerns were the reason he fell in the draft in the first place. Sullinger has been a very strong rebounder in his career, but his eagerness to shoot the three is frustrating, as he really isn’t good at it, shooting 28 percent last year while taking over three a game.
Both Zeller and Sullinger have a lot to work on still in their development, and the Celtics have opted to maintain flexibility going into free agency and having another year to look at their progress. Boston will have enough space to go for at least one max-level free agent, and their ability to bring in one of those players will have a big effect on where Zeller and Sullinger are playing next year.
Andre Drummond
It looks like this is Andre Drummond’s year. Coming off a 25 point, 29 rebound performance, the 22-year-old looks to be taking the leap in his career progression. The first player to have multiple 20-20 games in his first four games of the season since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Drummond is a destroyer of worlds when it comes to rebounding. It is physically impossible to keep him off the offensive glass. He is not very skilled offensively and lacks a refined post game, so the fact that he is averaging 20 points while being one of the worst post players in the league shows just how dominant he has been on the boards.
A budding superstar, Drummond is a lock to receive a max contract from the Pistons, but much like Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs last year, Detroit is maintaining its flexibility by holding off on giving him his deal until free agency next year. Expect nothing other than Andre Drummond staying in Detroit, and the Pistons giving him every single penny they can possibly offer.
Evan Fournier
Evan Fournier currently leads the Orlando Magic in scoring this season, although you still probably haven’t heard about him too much. Playing for a team that also employs Victor Oladipo, Nikola Vucevic, Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, Tobias Harris, and Mario Hezonja, Fournier barely enters the discussion when it comes to the future of the Magic. But in his second season with the Magic, the 6-7 shooting guard has started to produce offensively. Fournier is coming off a career high 30-point performance, leading the Magic to their first win of the season over the Pelicans. Through four games, Fournier leads Orlando in scoring at 18.5 points per game. But his value is still not clear, and the Magic made the right choice is not extending him. But with so much youth and potential on the wings in Orlando, if Fournier continues to have a strong season and earns a big contract he might be heading for new pastures come next year.
Meyers Leonard
Meyers Leonard turned down any extension offers from Portland, and rightly so. Leonard has been a backup his entire career, playing behind LaMarcus Aldridge the last three seasons. Now with Aldridge gone and a new focus on the youth in Portland, this could be Leonard’s time to shine. Despite his impressive size at 7-1 and 245 pounds, where Leonard is most useful is on the perimeter. Shooting 42 percent from three last season, Leonard provides an exciting option for Portland, who is building their offense around Damian Lillard.
Where Leonard struggles most is on the defensive end. He is not really a shot blocker despite his height, and his overall team defense is lacking. He is also off to a dreadfully poor start to the season, as he is shooting under 30 percent overall. With his lack of defense already an issue, Meyers Leonard will need find his shooting stroke again if he is hoping for a big payday this summer, whether in Portland or elsewhere.
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