The Pacers enter the 2016 All Star break at 28-25, second in the Central Division and sixth in the Eastern Conference. After a year lost to injury and regression in 2015, Indiana is back on track with star Paul George healthy.
The shambles of the team that pushed Miami as hard as anyone else in the East ever did stood as one of the biggest question marks heading into 2016. The Milwaukee Bucks had far surpassed expectations, even without marquee rookie Jabari Parker. The Bulls were still the Thibodeau Bulls, even if only as a shell of what they once had the promise to become. The Cavaliers had the double fortune of trading for Kevin Love and LeBron James deciding to return to The Land. Don’t forget Van Gundy and the Detroit Pistons with Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson.
That’s the 2016 Central Division. Now, insert an Indiana team that has a bunch of guys named “George” or “Hill” or “George Hill” and you’ve got the general picture.
Unlike their Midwestern topography, the Pacers season has been a bit of an up-and-down. After starting out 0-3, the Pacers surged to 16-9 by mid-December. Fast-forward to the All Star break and Indiana has cooled to 28-25, playing sub-.500 ball since that mid-December mark.
The obvious place to look for correlation is Paul George. The team’s best player, by far, carries the weight of Indiana’s playoff hopes squarely on his shoulders. Generally, the correlation looks significant. During that 0-3 start in October? George was -11.0 plus-minus. During the upturn in November? 12.0 plus-minus. Definitely some small sample size with October, but a 23.0 swing from one set of numbers to another seems significant – particularly given the relative win-loss success during those sets.
George appears to have shaken off any rust, averaging 23.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4 assists this season. He is also part of a seldom-used lineup that appears to be one of the best in the league. Earlier this year, we referenced a particularly potent Charlotte Hornets lineup. Using the same parameters: minimum of 66 minutes played by 5-man lineups, measuring net points per 100 possessions for the 2015-16 season. The Hornets lineup we mentioned was bumped down the list a few spots, partly because a new lineup emerged, just barely crossing the minimum minutes requirement – that lineup is one from the Indiana Pacers.
The lineup of Lavoy Allen, Monta Ellis, Paul George, George Hill and Jordan Hill currently ranks 7th. But this lineup seems quite strange, given the relative success, because they have played together just 67.2 minutes and that is over 23 games. So they are averaging less than three minutes per game together and have played well under half of all Pacers games together at any point. This might be something worth exploring for Indiana.
For all the good and bad of the 2016 season so far, their minor slide over the past two months seems to have slotted them in right where they belong. They have been consistently good enough, but not great. While the Bucks and Bulls stumble through their schedule, one grimace after another, the Pacers have calmly put themselves into the second position in the division and within striking distance of home court in the playoffs.
Their shooting percentage each month shows consistency – 45.0 (Nov), 44.4 (Dec), 45.3 (Jan), 45.1 (Feb). How they achieve that consistency is another story. After shooting 41.0 percent as a team in November from three-point range, they dropped dramatically to 34.2 in December and then 30.5 in January. Their numbers have had a slight upturn in February, back up to 34.1 percent. Still, in the modern NBA there is reason for concern if a team begins to go cold from deep.
Lest we focus entirely on their three-point woes, let us not forget their defense. The correlation is being built – the Pacers scored well, shot three-point attempts well, Paul George was on fire and their defense was strong in November. After November? Everything from George, to shooting the deep shot to defense has fallen off. But this isn’t really about pointing a finger at George. He is still averaging over 20 points per game each month and his February assists per game were actually up over 5, which is well above his season average of 4.
The defense has been lacking from Indiana as a whole. After putting up a defensive rating of 96.2 in November, they have gone 105.5, 102.7 and 106.7. In February, they are 10.5 points worse than they were during the season’s first full month. This is a very bad thing. All the consistency shooting, even if the source of the shooting success has shifted, cannot offset porous defense at the rate that Indiana is doing it.
If the up-and-down pattern of the Pacers and their consistent push for the playoffs doesn’t leave you feeling inspired, perhaps look to their rookie big man, Myles Turner. The 6-foot-11 big man is averaging 9.9 points and 5 rebounds this season and has rightfully earned more playing time as the season progresses. The best part of his development – as his role increases, so does his production. In February he is shooting 50 percent from the field for 12.5 points per game, averaging 29.1 minutes per contest. He’s also keeping his foul rate down, just 3.0 per game, which will help him stay in the game and be available any time the coach might want to call his number.
Maybe it’s the relative lack of strength in the East that has allowed the Pacers to keep up. Maybe they’ve avoided being lapped because they always bounce back from a few losses and rattle off a few wins. Whatever the exact reasoning is, the Pacers performance this season suggest that they are going to be strong enough to secure a playoff spot and respond each time they get knocked down. For every Ian Mahinmi bricked jumper after looking off a wide open George Hill at the corner three-point spot, there is a clutch shot from George or hot streak from Ellis.
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