Cause and Effect: Denver’s Valuable Week

Sitting on a heap of conditional picks, things might be breaking right for Denver to cash in on all of them.

Life occasionally offers you the best of both worlds. Like when you are a kid and it snows; not only do you get out of school, but you get to build snowmen and pelt your younger brother with packed-in snowballs. One event affects the other, and both are to your benefit.

Denver, then, is in the catbird seat after the last days leading into the All-Star Break. A series of events have all played out in their favor, and an increasingly likely scenario will see them with the King’s Bounty come June. Err, the Nuggets’ bounty. The Kings sold their bounty to Philadelphia so they could sign Kosta Koufos.

The primary event that happened was the injury to former All-Star center Marc Gasol. The leader of the Memphis Grizzlies broke his right foot against the Portland Trailblazers on February 8th, sidelining him indefinitely and possibly for the rest of the season. Of course no one wants to see star players injured, but it happened, and the ripple effect for Denver is decidedly sweet.

The first effect is that Memphis is going to be worse. The Grizzlies owe a protected 2016 first round pick to the Nuggets if they finish between six and fourteen in the draft order; in practical terms, if the Grizzlies drop out of the playoffs, Denver gets their pick. The Memphis Grizzlies sit fifth in the Western Conference, and before the Gasol injury that pick was the longest of shots to convey. But now the Grizz are only five games up on the ninth seed, with a roster that was struggling even before Gasol went down. If they fall far enough, Denver cashes in.

And things don’t stop there. Gasol went down in the first quarter of a game against the Portland Trailblazers, a game the Grizzlies eventually lost in overtime. Portland also has a draft pick arrangement with Denver; if Portland makes the playoffs, they convey their 2016 first round pick to the Nuggets. The Trailblazers’ win against Memphis has them inside the current playoff field, a half-game up on the ninth-seeded Rockets.

The gift, however, has more to give. The Houston Rockets stand at ninth in the West, well below preseason expectations as a dark-horse championship contender. But if Memphis were to fall out of the playoffs, Houston would be a near-lock to make the field. And thus convey their 2016 first round pick to the Nuggets (like Portland, top-14 protected).

One cause, three valuable effects for Denver. If everything breaks right, they will end up with three extra draft picks in the 10-20 range, in addition to their own first round pick. In one last nugget of draft value, they own swap rights with the New York Knicks, who have lost six straight and just fired their coach. For a team hoping to fill in the margins of the roster and begin rising towards respectability, the last week has been a gift from the basketball gods.