Into the Future

Going forward, here’s my prescription for what each fringe-playoff or lottery-level team should do.

WEST

Grizzlies (31-22) 

Deep breath: Memphis plays the Lakers and Suns three times each, the Wolves, Nuggets, Raptors, Clippers, Warriors, and Spurs twice, and the Kings, Jazz, Cavaliers, Celtics, Pelicans, Hawks, Rockets, Magic, Bucks, Bulls, and Mavericks once. Though only 12 of these 29 contests are at the GrindHouse, I still expect the Grizzlies to make the playoffs minus Marc Gasol. Even if we assume Memphis loses every game against above above .500 clubs, there are still 15 wins there for the taking. However, the most likely ending is the Grizz slipping to seventh or eighth and getting smoked in the first round versus the Warriors or Spurs, so we may as well just talk offseason now. Re-sign Mike Conley regardless of cost. Memphis is home to unbelievable barbecue and even better music, but it’s still a small-market squad, and they can’t afford to lose a player of Conley’s caliber. There is long-term concern with Gasol’s injury, but he and Conley are the cornerstones of the franchise. Memphis gave Jeff Green, Courtney Lee, and Vince Carter a combined $19M this year while Conley made less than 10, and those three wings can be let go this summer. Time to pay Conley.

Trail Blazers (27-27)

First and foremost, the defense is what needs to be improved in the offseason. Unless Portland plans to break up its sharpshooting backcourt duo, don’t draft or sign anyone who doesn’t make a positive impact on that end. Effectively hiding the Splash Brothers Lite against bigger backcourts will depend on the frontcourt, and most of the centers are defensively inept in one way or another. Allen Crabbe and Al-Faruq Aminu make for fine fits, but beyond that the Kodak is not clearly developed in Oregon.

Jazz (26-26)

Keep doing what you’re doing. Of the three teams in the seventh to ninth spots out West, I think the Jazz have the brightest outlook in both the short and long-term. Rodney Hood is emerging as a future star, Gordon Hayward has picked up his play in the second half of the season, Trey Lyles looks like late-lottery gold, and the depth of talent in Utah is undeniable.

Rockets (27-28)

DEFENSE—HALF-COURT, TRANSITION, YOU NAME IT. PLEASE DO SOME OF THAT SO COACH BERNIE BICKERSTAFF DOESN’T COMPLETELY LOSE HIS MIND.

Kings (22-31)

The Kings can’t re-sign Rajon Rondo as the running mate for DeMarcus Cousins. This team needs a veteran player to reel Boogie in. Easier said than done, but the point is that George Karl isn’t going to suddenly become a hard-ass over the offseason. Rondo also fought Rick Carlisle for control in Dallas, so I don’t think a stern voice is going to change the dynamic there much. Regardless of the coaching situation, let Rondo walk this summer.

Nuggets (22-32)

Be considerate of spacing. Emmanuel Mudiay has shown flashes—and he could very well develop his shot over time. If not, it’s going to be tricky for him to prosper in lineups with Kenneth Faried. It goes without saying that it’s tough to survive in the modern NBA without a jumper, and these days having more than one unreliable shooter on the floor at the same time is a recipe for losing.

Pelicans (20-33)

Draft Buddy Hield if he’s available. Most mocks have Kris Dunn going to NOLA, but selecting him over Hield would be a mistake in my opinion. Jrue Holiday is starting to embrace his Silver Surfer superhero status, and surrounding him and Anthony Davis with 3-and-D wings is the recipe for future success. Hield is only 6-4, 215 lbs., and needs to improve defensively, but he has a 6-8 wingspan and he’s very strong. He also has hardly any time of possession when considering how much he is scoring. This bodes well in Alvin Gentry’s offensive system, which demands constant ball and player movement. Holiday and Davis will get Hield plenty of clean looks, and he’s comfortable getting his points in the flow of the offense.

Timberwolves (17-37)

Assuming (perhaps foolishly) that ‘Sota doesn’t move up on lottery night and Hield doesn’t overtake Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram, don’t let Hield slip to NOLA. If the Wolves plan on allowing Karl-Anthony Towns any breathing room, they’ll need someone who can’t be left alone on the perimeter. There are other shooters for sure, but the idea of adding Hield to the core of Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine, and Gorgui Dieng makes me downright giddy. The Wolves should also dump Sam Mitchell for a coach who fully understands the importance of appropriate spacing and threes. To Mitchell’s credit though, he has been playing the youngsters quite a lot lately.

Suns (14-40)

Move Markieff Morris + nothing but the draft. The Suns are finally about to get a top pick after finishing in the late-lottery the last several seasons. If Phoenix hits a home-run this summer in late June, this miserable 2015-16 season might soon be forgotten.

Lakers (11-44)

L.A. should keep Byron Scott around to finish the tank this season. However, he has to go immediately afterwards. Beyond basketball strategy, the fact that Scott doesn’t have an open-door policy with his young players is grounds for dismissal by itself. Sad but true—the Lakers could probably improve their record if Scott relinquished control of the clipboard to Swaggy P.

EAST

Bulls (27-25)

Dear, Chicago. Whatever you do, don’t re-sign Pau Gasol. He turns 36 this summer, and he is already producing hollow stats while getting torched on defense. Unless they want to waste Jimmy Butler’s career, the Spaniard should not be running with the Bulls next season.

Hornets (27-26)

Bring back Nicolas Batum, but don’t re-sign Al Jefferson. This core isn’t a title contender, but being competitive on a nightly basis is fun. I’m in favor of fun. I also don’t buy the idea that teams in the middle of the pack or without a superstar need to bottom out in order to become contenders. Less needs to break right when you’re already a pretty decent basketball team. Playoffs or not, Charlotte has done so well minus Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Steve Clifford should be receiving more consideration for Coach of the Year honors.

Pistons (27-27)

Go hard after Ryan Anderson this summer. He fits well with Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis on offense, but NOLA’s A.D. is not as physically strong as Detroit’s, and the duo struggles defensively. As a result, New Orleans might be hesitant to match a contract that pays Ryno $20M or more per year. Ersan Ilyasova takes a lot of charges, but he is nowhere near Anderson’s echelon on offense. Drummond, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Stanley Johnson can help hide Anderson on defense, and the added spacing at the other end will make Drummond and Reggie Jackson even more lethal in pick-and-rolls.

Wizards (23-28)

Start paying folks to show up to games and root for the home team. Most teams that are below .500 aren’t drawing big crowds, but the majority of squads get much more fan support than Washington. This has turned Kevin Durant off, and the damage may already be irreversible. I have a tough time envisioning K.D. leaving Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka, but crazier things have happened. Hopefully Bradley Beal’s injuries are behind him, and that a strong finish to the season at least allows the Wizards the opportunity for a sit-down with its hometown hero.

Magic (23-29)

Keep feeding Aaron Gordon and Mario Hezonja plenty of playing time. For the first half of the year, these two weren’t playing all that much—and it was hard to fault Scott Skiles given the team’s 19-13 start. However, Skiles threw Gordon into the starting five a few weeks back, and Hezonja continues to earn more meaningful minutes lately. Unless Orlando knows it doesn’t want to re-sign Evan Fournier in the offseason, I’d play out the last 30 games with this group and go from there. The Magic can always work a sign-and-trade this summer, and there’s no reason to give him up Fournier for 25 cents on the dollar before Thursday’s deadline.

Knicks (23-32)

Start Langston Galloway. At this point in his career, Jose Calderon should accept a backup role with welcome arms. The Knicks’ defense has been decent this year despite him, but Galloway is deserving of that spot. There’s also no reason to play Sasha Vujacic more minutes than Jerian Grant. Having lost six in a row heading into the All-Star break, New York is no longer competing for a postseason berth, and the young guys with potential need to be playing over the older gentlemen whose careers are winding down.

Bucks (22-32)

Move Greg Monroe and Michael Carter-Williams. TLM’s James Plowright and Nick Denning discussed a swap between the Hornets and Bucks that’d see Monroe move to Charlotte in exchange for Cody Zeller, a lottery-protected first-round pick, and the expiring contract of Al Jefferson. If I’m the Bucks, I say yes in a heartbeat. The Bulls may very well miss the playoffs with Jimmy Butler out for the next few weeks. For the Hornets, assuming they go ahead and re-sign Nicolas Batum this summer, this would be their version of swinging for the fences. I just don’t think MCW or Monroe makes much sense in Milwaukee when two of the three wing players (Giannis, Jabari) aren’t threats from three-point-land.

Nets (14-40)

If there’s a way to get your hands on first-round picks, take a cue from Nike and “Just Do It.” Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez usually look about as happy as two guys playing for a terrible team can, but I hate seeing them waste away on Brooklyn’s basketball team. These guys could each bring back a first-round pick, and the Nets will be better off with a few potential building blocks than draining the remaining years of its top two frontcourt starters. By 2020, both Lopez and Young will be on the wrong side of 30, and the chances that Brooklyn can build a real contender through free agency and the 2019 NBA Draft are microscopic. I’m all for giving the good people something enjoyable to watch, but it has already been a library in Barclays for the last two years.

76ers (8-45)

Draft a player with perimeter skills. I know what you’re thinking, and no I’m not saying they should necessarily pass on a potential star such as Ben Simmons. Still, a point-forward like Simmons might not be a great fit unless Joel Embiid proves healthy. Simmons hasn’t made a single three-pointer in college, and it’s tough to imagine that becoming a strength at the next level. Dario Saric has been hitting the three more than ever overseas, but he projects as a small-ball four, plus Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor are centers without much range. Simply put, Philly must resist any temptation to draft another big man this summer.