The Milwaukee Bucks have not lived up to their expectations from the beginning of the season. A porous defense, a lack of perimeter shooting, and an overall absence of cohesion has doomed the Bucks to the Lottery. But since the All-Star break, there have been multiple encouraging developments that could make Milwaukee’s future brighter, and clearer.
Almost every national article on the Milwaukee Bucks has started the same way this year. The Bucks were supposed to be good, but they aren’t. While repetitive, that statement essentially sums up their season.
The projected starting lineup of Michael Carter-Williams, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, and Greg Monroe was young, but after the success of last season, Milwaukee was only expected to get better, especially with the addition of Monroe.
But the team faltered on many levels. After finishing the 2014-15 season 4th in the league in Defensive Rating (102.2), the defense has collapsed this season, falling to 25th in Defensive Rating (108.6).
A big reason for their failings on the defensive end have, unfortunately, been the additions of Jabari Parker and Greg Monroe. While Parker was on the team last season, he only played in 25 games before being sidelined with an ACL tear, so incorporating him back into the team was essentially adding a new player.
Both Parker and Monroe, while gifted offensively, have been defensive sieves in their careers. Parker has stunning agility and footwork on the offensive end, but that seems to disappear on the defensive end. Monroe has been poor on his defensive rotations, and doesn’t play above the rim at all so he provides little rim protection and doesn’t do a good job of bringing down defensive boards.
Jason Kidd runs a very aggressive defensive scheme, a scheme that worked effectively last season. But the departure of solid team defenders Zaza Pachulia, Jared Dudley, and Ersan Ilyasova in the offseason has hurt the team’s ability to execute the defensive rotations that are critical to this scheme’s success, and opponents have taken advantage. The defense has gradually improved over the season, but Milwaukee has given up an alarming number of open three-pointers that have killed them all season long.
The defensive drop-off has been the biggest factor in Milwaukee’s decline, but a consistent problem on top of that is their complete lack of perimeter shooting. Khris Middleton has been a revelation ever since he came to Milwaukee, as he has shot over 40 percent from three in each of his three seasons here, but it becomes rather bleak from there on out. Carter-Williams and Antetokounmpo’s three-point field goal percentages are in the mid 20’s, and Jabari Parker only hit his first three of the season a couple games ago. Jerryd Bayless has been quietly strong this season, shooting 43 percent from three, but he and Middleton are the only positives from the perimeter. O.J. Mayo has been a disappointment, and replacing Dudley and Ilyasova in the forward rotation with Johnny O’Bryant has also killed the Bucks’ spacing.
The Bucks offense has focused on Monroe post ups, off-ball cuts to the basket by Giannis and Jabari, and running Middleton off screens. The results haven’t been great, as Milwaukee’s offensive rating is 24th in the league. Defenders commonly give MCW, Antetokounmpo, and Parker plenty of space because they don’t respect their jumpers, and that makes it harder for Middleton to get open as well. The most-used lineup of MCW/Middleton/Giannis/Jabari/Monroe has a net rating of -6.8, the third-worst rating for any team’s most-used lineup, in front of only the Sixers and the Lakers (via Andy Bailey).
The results for this lineup haven’t been encouraging, and the question of whether the perceived “core” of this team is going to work for the long term is an important decision the front office will need to make. MCW and Monroe were clearly on the table at the trade deadline, and recent developments with the team have put those two players’ fit with the team in question.
Two games before the All-Star break, Kidd decided to start Mayo and Miles Plumlee in place of Carter-Williams and Greg Monroe, bringing the player for whom he traded Brandon Knight and the prized free-agent acquisition off the bench instead. At first, Kidd said this was only a temporary change, but Milwaukee has now played ten games with the new lineup and doesn’t appear poised to change anything soon.
The demotion of MCW to the bench, in favor of the low-usage O.J. Mayo, has turned Giannis into the primary playmaker in the starting lineup, and to say he is thriving in that role would be an understatement. Since the break, the Greek Freak is averaging 18 points per game, 11 rebounds, and a remarkable 6.6 assists. It isn’t a large sample size, but playing less minutes with higher-usage players like MCW and Monroe has given him the freedom to operate essentially as the point guard, a role Jason Kidd confirmed Antetokounmpo has taken on for the Bucks.
Speaking after a recent game, Kidd said:
“Giannis is playing at a very high level right now,” said Jason Kidd. “After the break, we’ve made some changes, we’ve kind of given him the ball as the point guard. We haven’t announced that he’s the point guard, but we’re letting him start the offense. On misses, we’re trying to get the ball to him as quick as possible and have everybody else run. And he’s made some incredible passes.”
The prospect of the 6-11 Antetokounmpo functioning as a point guard should drive fear into the hearts of opposition, and the last few games have shown it to be an increasing reality.
The post-All Star break has also been very kind to the other young Bucks forward, Jabari Parker. Parker has been on fire, averaging 22.1 points per game, up from his season average of 11.3 points per game before the break. He has viciously attacked the basket in the last few games and has been much more trigger happy, putting up 17.3 shot attempts per game, eight more attempts than he was averaging in the first 48 games. And despite the dramatic increase in shots, his field-goal percentage has only gone up, improving to 53.7 percent from his previous 48.8 percent. Parker’s success was highlighted by a 36-point performance against the Rockets. His dramatic improvement is certainly encouraging, as he failed to make much of an impact throughout most of the season. It must be asked if his newfound success is a product of the MCW and Monroe benchings, or if it’s just a coincidence.
The net ratings of Milwaukee’s most-used lineups provide some interesting information. Whereas the aforementioned most-used lineup is one of the NBA’s worst, the next few lineup combinations are all net positives. The new starting lineup, inserting Mayo and Plumlee for MCW and Monroe, has a +4.5 net rating. While this might hint at Carter-Williams and Monroe both hurting the team, the other lineups provide some support for Monroe. Replacing just MCW for Mayo, and keeping Monroe in the lineup, the Bucks have a +5.6 rating, and +6.1 rating when MCW is replaced by Bayless.
All signs point to the Bucks thriving when the traditional point guard role is filled with a low-usage, spot-up shooter, which certainly makes sense. Putting another shooter on the floor opens the court for Giannis, Jabari, and Monroe to go to work, and puts the ball in their hands more often.
The Milwaukee Bucks didn’t have the season for which they hoped, but this has been a needed opportunity to assess where the team should go long term. Carter-Williams and Monroe could both potentially enter free agency after next season, and decisions will need to be made on how long they remain in Milwaukee. But the disappointing season does not hurt the Bucks’ future, and the trio of Middleton, Antetokounmpo, and Parker is showing signs that they could be deadly together later on in their careers. It might not happen this season or the next, but Milwaukee has built an impressive foundation that will be dangerous for many years to come.
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